Best Bets for week 10: Betting on underrated Dolphins, demoralized Bears

Wednesday, 06 November 2019 18:37 EST

As explained elsewhere, NFLbets is changing things up in hopes of improving our fortune – superstitious nonsense, we’re well aware. This seaosn’s gone fairly poorly for NFLbets in these “Best Bets” while we're doing just swimmingly in “Picks of the Week”, so perhaps a change of scenery for the column itself will work. Yeah, surrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrre.

In any case, the following are a couple of wagers that we’re calling our Best Bets. The opposite, Jerry, the opposite!

Miami Dolphins +10 at Indianapolis Colts

Whoa, does this line show some disrespect for the Dolphins! However, either NFL bettors are wiser vis-à-vis the not-even historically bad Fins or a lotta Miami diehards are plunking down big money, as this line has retreated from Colts -11 to Colts -10 between Sunday night and Wednesday.

The truth is that the Dolphins have been well underrated by the sportsbook in the second quarter of the season. After starting out 0-4 SU/ATS while getting outscored 163-26, the Dolphins have subsequently won four straight ATS vs spreads ranging from 3½ to 17 versus fellow bottom-feeders (Washington, New York Jets) or the very overrated (Pittsburgh, Buffalo).

Much of what remains on the Miami roster post-trade deadline could be exactly what fans so often lament: A group of guys who may not be the best but play hard every game. We’re not saying that piss and vinegar alone has done teams of the past, likesay the 2008 Detroit Lions, much good, but enthusiasm can win games ATS – those winless Lions were 7-8-1 ATS.

This week, the new spread-busters take on a Colts team that’s already ridden the overrated/underrated rollercoaster this season and now appear to be stuck near the top. This despite the reality that Jacoby “The Revelation” Brissett will likely not be at QB in this game. Common perception, blinded by past reputation, would have believe that much of Brissett’s success is due to an awesome line, but Football Outsiders’ DVOA metric has the Colts OL ranked just 17th in pass protection.

In fact, much of Indianapolis’s success in 2019 thus far may be credited to Brissett. Sure, Marlon Mack gives them a viable weapon out of the backfield – but the Colts have scored a total of four rushing TDs this season, and one is Brissett’s.

Now don’t get NFLbets wrong here: The Colts can, and likely will, do enough to win this game. But we just need the Dolphins to play it close, a knack for which they’ve been demonstrating recently; the Colts, meanwhile, are facing one too many unknowns with their meal ticket punched out. And this line makes Indy look a little … overrated.

Chase the Dolphins for one more week. Take the Miami Dolphins +10 at Indianapolis.

Detroit Lions +2½ at Chicago Bears, over/under 41½ points

For most of 2019, NFLbets has been pounding the under in Chicago Bears games due to the team’s top-notch defense and bottom-notch passing game. (Mostly the latter, to be honest.) The strategy has served us well, as the under is now 5-3 when Chicago’s involved. This week, though, the story may be different.

Mitchell Trubisky has apparently demoralized his team enough that, on their current four-game SU/ATS losing streak, the still statistically impressive D has allowed 99 points – not exactly the best run when Detroit’s next up. The Lions have scored 24 or more in six of their eight games in ’19. (The Lions’ scoring totals become even more impressive when considering they have little to no running game to speak of and thus a seriously transparent game plan.)

There’s even a plus side for ol’ Mitch here: These Lions are incredibly bad against the pass, ranking bottom-3 in yards allowed, passing yards allowed and first downs surrendered. And they’re bottom-5 or -10 in essentially every run defense stat imaginable. IF the OL wants to save Trubisky’s job (that’s a coinflip, probably), perhaps they can give David Montgomery a little run blocking to better than weak 3.6 yards per carry.

NFLbets certainly isn’t confident enough to pick a winner in this game, but we love the possibility of points. Take the over on an O/U of 41½ points.

NFLbets’ Best Bets last week: 0-3.
NFLbets’ Best Bets this season: 9-12.

–written by Os Davis

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