As explained elsewhere, NFLbets is changing things up in hopes of improving our fortune – superstitious nonsense, we’re well aware. This seaosn’s gone fairly poorly for NFLbets in these “Best Bets” while we're doing just swimmingly in “Picks of the Week”, so perhaps a change of scenery for the column itself will work. Yeah, surrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrre.
In any case, the following are a couple of wagers that we’re calling our Best Bets. The opposite, Jerry, the opposite!
Whoa, does this line show some disrespect for the Dolphins! However, either NFL bettors are wiser vis-à-vis the not-even historically bad Fins or a lotta Miami diehards are plunking down big money, as this line has retreated from Colts -11 to Colts -10 between Sunday night and Wednesday.
The truth is that the Dolphins have been well underrated by the sportsbook in the second quarter of the season. After starting out 0-4 SU/ATS while getting outscored 163-26, the Dolphins have subsequently won four straight ATS vs spreads ranging from 3½ to 17 versus fellow bottom-feeders (Washington, New York Jets) or the very overrated (Pittsburgh, Buffalo).
Much of what remains on the Miami roster post-trade deadline could be exactly what fans so often lament: A group of guys who may not be the best but play hard every game. We’re not saying that piss and vinegar alone has done teams of the past, likesay the 2008 Detroit Lions, much good, but enthusiasm can win games ATS – those winless Lions were 7-8-1 ATS.
This week, the new spread-busters take on a Colts team that’s already ridden the overrated/underrated rollercoaster this season and now appear to be stuck near the top. This despite the reality that Jacoby “The Revelation” Brissett will likely not be at QB in this game. Common perception, blinded by past reputation, would have believe that much of Brissett’s success is due to an awesome line, but Football Outsiders’ DVOA metric has the Colts OL ranked just 17th in pass protection.
In fact, much of Indianapolis’s success in 2019 thus far may be credited to Brissett. Sure, Marlon Mack gives them a viable weapon out of the backfield – but the Colts have scored a total of four rushing TDs this season, and one is Brissett’s.
Now don’t get NFLbets wrong here: The Colts can, and likely will, do enough to win this game. But we just need the Dolphins to play it close, a knack for which they’ve been demonstrating recently; the Colts, meanwhile, are facing one too many unknowns with their meal ticket punched out. And this line makes Indy look a little … overrated.
Chase the Dolphins for one more week. Take the Miami Dolphins +10 at Indianapolis.
For most of 2019, NFLbets has been pounding the under in Chicago Bears games due to the team’s top-notch defense and bottom-notch passing game. (Mostly the latter, to be honest.) The strategy has served us well, as the under is now 5-3 when Chicago’s involved. This week, though, the story may be different.
Mitchell Trubisky has apparently demoralized his team enough that, on their current four-game SU/ATS losing streak, the still statistically impressive D has allowed 99 points – not exactly the best run when Detroit’s next up. The Lions have scored 24 or more in six of their eight games in ’19. (The Lions’ scoring totals become even more impressive when considering they have little to no running game to speak of and thus a seriously transparent game plan.)
There’s even a plus side for ol’ Mitch here: These Lions are incredibly bad against the pass, ranking bottom-3 in yards allowed, passing yards allowed and first downs surrendered. And they’re bottom-5 or -10 in essentially every run defense stat imaginable. IF the OL wants to save Trubisky’s job (that’s a coinflip, probably), perhaps they can give David Montgomery a little run blocking to better than weak 3.6 yards per carry.
NFLbets certainly isn’t confident enough to pick a winner in this game, but we love the possibility of points. Take the over on an O/U of 41½ points.
NFLbets’ Best Bets last week: 0-3.
NFLbets’ Best Bets this season: 9-12.
–written by Os Davis
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Willie McGinest predicts Denver Broncos will go 9-8 this season. The team has been favored by the football cognoscenti since signing Russell Wilson. McG inest sees the team starting 3-0 and then having a collapse during the second half of the season, followed by a three-game losing streak. Other teams he predicts the Broncos losing to are the Las Vegas Raiders, Indianapolis Colts, Tennesee Titans, Baltimore Ravens and Los Angeles Chargers. The Ravens had a hell of a draft and are looking to get back next season but McG is not predicting their game.
Carolina Panthers traded for Sam Darnold and exercised his fifth-year option before he played a snap for the team. The team didn't sign a free agent quarterback and they didn’t sign Mitch Trubisky or Tyrod Taylor in the offseason. They lost the Deshaun Watson sweepstakes. They also didn'st look into a trade for Baker Mayfield or Jimmy Garoppolo.
Kenny Moore was named the most underrated player for the Indianapolis Colts by PFF. Braden Smith is the new most underrated player. The offensive tackle is better than the defensive back. He was selected to his first Pro Bowl last season. The defensive player was considered an unsung hero before.
NFL writer lists Cedrick Wilson Jr. as Dolphins ‘best-kept secret’. Wilson recorded 67 receptions for 837 yards and eight touchdowns in three seasons with Dallas. He completed five passes for 111 yards. He could be an important part of the Dolphins' offense under new head coach Mike McDaniel. The team has two elite wide receivers and a more-than-capable tight end.
The Miami Dolphins had a seven-game winning streak in 2021. Their schedule for 2022 is set up for another similar run. They play seven games against teams that didn't make the playoffs last season. The seventh game is against the Pittsburgh Steelers, who didn’t make it to the postseason last year.
Nick Foles signed a two-year deal with the Indianapolis Colts. The Philadelphia Eagles were interested in a reunion with him. Fols led the team to Super Bowl LII. He will be reunited with Frank Reich, his offensive coordinator. He is also a former teammate of Carson Wentz, who was traded to the Washington Commanders. His contract with Indianapolis is less than half what he got with Jacksonville Jaguars and the Rams. It's worth noting that he will serve as a backup to Matt Ryan. he is a journeyman outside of Philadelphia. his contract at the Jaguars was less generous than at his previous stops.
Nick Foles agreed to join the Indianapolis Colts on Monday. Fols won Super Bowl MVP with the Philadelphia Eagles in 2018. He will be a backup for Matt Ryan, who was benched for Carson Wentz. The Colts will travel to Lucas Oil Stadium to play the Birds in November. The game will take place on November 20. It will feature Falshere and Jalen Hurts. They will play each other. In the past, Felsore was a starter with Jacksonville Jaguars and Chicago Bears.
Easton Stick was drafted in the fifth round of the 2019 NFL Draft. He was a day three pick and the team still had Philip Rivers. The team was going to draft a first-round quarterback in 2020. Stick has played one NFL snap in regular season. He is entering the last year of his rookie deal. If anything happens to Justin Herbert, the Chargers will be in a massive hole.
Colts signed Nick Foles to a two-year deal on Monday. Fols was released by the Chicago Bears last month. Frank Reich was the offensive coordinator in Philadelphia when Forsh won the Super Bowl LII with the Eagles. The Colts traded for Matt Ryan this summer. They have three quarterbacks on their roster: Sam Ehlinger, James Morgan and Jack Coan. Jacob Eason was thrust into action in Week 2 of last season. Colts are the betting favorite to win the AFC South. Their quarterback situation is uncertain after Carson Wentz's injury in 2021.
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