NFL betting, week 11 picks: We see points, lots of points…

Wednesday, 13 November 2019 18:03 EST

In NFL betting, it’s often more prudent to bet the under – hey, other than a cover-the-ass bet on Julian Edelman for MVP, the under was about all NFLbets hit in Super Bowl LIII – but it’s always more fun to bet on the over.

Our picks of the week is grounded in that desire that all football fans secretly foster, i.e. to see a ton of points fly by on the screen on any given Sunday: The interception may be the most glorious play in football, but there’s a reason the Red Zone concludes their broadcast with a rundown of the day’s TDs. We hope you feel the same way we do about NFL football and betting going hand in hand like Peanut Butter and Jelly, or Sprinkles on your Ice Cream or, a stack of $1 bills in a strip club. Money won is just better than money after taxes and working for 2 weeks. lol!

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Houston Texans +4½ at Baltimore Ravens, over/under 49½ points

How ironic that back in the day (likesay, two years ago), the Texans and Ravens were noted for their defense: In week 11, they’re entering a game with perhaps the two most exciting quarterbacks in football right now and an over/under implying seven TDs.

But you know what? We’re all over it. For NFLbets’ money (literally), this could well be the best game of the year and a seemingly inevitable semifinal, no. 2 vs no. 3 matchup. And we may be biased – every so often we dig a real scoreboard-spinner – but we’re anticipating some serious scoring here. DeShaun Watson has accounted for 23 touchdowns (18 passing, 5 running), while Lamar Jackson’s notched 21 (15 passing, 6 running). In an average meeting, then, five TDs should be expected from these two for starters.

NFLbets also figures the weather will not be a factor, with early weather predictions putting kickoff temperature in the low 50s with a 10% chance of precipitation. Sounds like scoring weather to us…Take the over on an O/U of 49½.

New Orleans Saints -5½ at Tampa Bay Buccaneers, over/under 51½ points

What, did we say the Texans/Ravens over/under was high? We know the Buccaneers have been scoring points in bunches – 29.9 per since game 3, including the 24 rung up against the Saints in a 7-point loss in week 5 – and they could very well put up 30+ against a New Orleans defense that’s above average in all statistical categories except, unfortunately, the Buccaneers offense’s weakness, namely turnovers.

So the Bucs will score, probably. But will the Saints?

It’s amazing both a) how sentimental fans are about Drew Brees and therefore still expect him to be throwing like he’s 25 years old and b) how willing certain clickbaiters were to throw him under the bus after a single bad game. Brees is 2-1 SU (1-2 ATS) in full games this year, and he produced essentially the same stat line in the first two: 32-of-43 for 370 yards, 2 TDs, 1 pick; in week 8, the line was 34-of-43 for 373 yards, 3 TDs and 1 interception. Last week in the so-called benching-worthy loss? Brees went 32 of 45 – but for just 273 yards, a long of 36 – and six sacks.

Those six sacks are increasing the difficulty curve on betting this game sharply. The offensive line is solid and injury-free. Week 10 was the much ballyhooed return of Alvin Kamara and Jared Cook, playing with Brees at the same time for the first time this season, so the excuse that Brees held the ball too long is irrelevant. Under normal circumstances, we’d probably write this result off as an anomaly – after all, the SU win against the biggest point spread of the year is by definition an exceptional result. So why not the over here?

The scariest number against the over? The Buccaneers are on an incredible 7-0 ATS run, they’ve already topped two consecutive 50-poin O/Us and 51½ is the highest they’ve faced in 2019. However, the over in Saints games in on a 1-3 run and is 4-5 overall.

Who doesn’t want more points, anyway…? Take the over on an O/U of 51½ points.

NFLbets’ Picks of the Week last week: 3-1.
NFLbets’ Picks of the Week this season: 30-16.

Check here for the current NFL Weekly Odds.

 

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