UFC 249 Justin Gaethje vs. Tony Ferguson: Odds and Predictions

Thursday, 07 May 2020 19:43 EST

How to Bet UFC 249 Justin Gaethje vs. Tony Ferguson


The UFC 249 fight card might be one of the deepest and most exciting mma events in years, certainly the most highly anticipated mma event in 2020. While the entire sporting world sits at a standstill during this global pandemic, the UFC seems intent on pushing a business as usual schedule. Perhaps that’s not entirely accurate, as UFC 249 in Jacksonville, Florida this coming Saturday (May 9th, 2020) will take place in front of no fans. Social Distancing measures will not permit fans at this time. The only possible way to proceed is as a ‘closed event’ status. With all said, fans are jumping for joy at prospect to watch the next UFC event, “it’s history in the making”!

The main card promises to be an absolute beauty, so we are going to do out best to break it down, complete with UFC 249 odds and predictions.

MMA UFC 249 Full Card Odds

Greg Hardy (-215)Vs Yorgan De Castro (+175)

The main card kicks off with a Heavyweight battle between a pair of fighters who have paid their dues in the Contender Series before jumping to the UFC proper. Hardy is perhaps best known for his time in the NFL, but his high profile has seen him land on several cards thus far, albeit with a mixed bag of results. You never really know what you are going to get from Hardy, as he goes from looking great to looking terrible from one fight to the next. De Castro has power in spades, so the chances of this fight going the distance seems slim. Slight nod to Hardy here or you can take the dog value in betting Yorgan De Castro (+175).

Jeremy Stephens (+200) Vs Calvin Kattar (-255)

Next up on the main card is a Featherweight bout that should deliver some serious action. Stephens is one of those fighters who has been around for about a decade or so now, and while never really scaling the heights of the division, he is a fighter who will go head to head with anyone, compiling a 28-17 record along the way. Kattar is a fighter on the rise and one that we should probably be keeping an eye on. I think he continues to move up the ranks with a win here.

Francis Ngannou (-270) vs Jairzinho Rozenstruik (+210)

Originally slated for 5 rounds, this one has been moved back to a 3-rounder, but given the power that both of these men possess, shaving off a couple of rounds probably isn’t really going to matter. Ngannou has, after a loss at UFC 226, rebounded with a trio of wins via KO that he delivered in a combined time of just over 2 minutes. Rozenstruik has won each of his 10 bouts and loudly campaigned for a fight with Ngannou, which may well come back to haunt him, as I think he is in a little over his head in this one. Ngannou was at -300 earlier this week until some solid action came in on Rozenstruik to move the line down to -270. This fight is also the favourite to end the fastest on Saturday at +100.

Henry Cejudo (-235) Vs Dominick Cruz (+195)

This bantamweight bout is a bit of a strange one in that it’s a little tougher to know what to expect. Cejudo, the reigning champion, is coming into this bout on a 5-fight winning streak and looks like a good bet against a fighter who has not set foot in the Octagon since December 2016. Do not let that fool you, though, as Cruz has all the tools to come out and win this one. I just think that he might need a fight or two under his bet before he is back at his best, so I am on Cejudo to win. The champ opened as a -270 favourite, but action on Cruz has dropped that number to Cejudo -210 with the challenger at +160.

Tony Ferguson (-173) Vs Justin Gaethje (+143)

The event will be headlined by Justin Gaethje battling Tony Ferguson for the interim lightweight championship, with the winner likely facing champion Khabib Nurmagomedov down the road. Ferguson opened as a -185 favourite before moving up to -200 with Gaethje coming in as a +150 underdog. The Ferguson side is seeing most of the action, but bettors also like Gaethje to score the upset by knockout or TKO at +170. Gaethje does have the power, but does he have the defense to last 5 rounds with Ferguson on a scorecard?
Ferguson’s been so efficient, he’s on a 12-fight win streak. Many fans would like him to see that continue to lucky number 13 in a row.

Donald “Cowboy” Cerrone (+120) and Anthony “Showtime” Pettis (-150)

Donald “Cowboy” Cerrone, line is moving down from a +125 to +120 underdog in his matchup with Anthony “Showtime” Pettis (-150). I do see this one getting closer to even but in MMA there always has to be a dog price. Cowboy says he wasn’t ready for his last match a lose versus Conor McGregor. Anthony Pettis is coming off 2 straight tough loses but as the younger, quicker guy he should be ready for a good showing vs Cowboy. Although, I might lean towards a split decision in Cowboy’s favor the smart angle here is to jump this Mybookie freebet promotion.


Basically it’s a win/win with no risk on this Cerrone vs Pettis fight. What’s a free bet? It’s one you can’t lose. If you bet on Cowboy at +120 and Cowboy wins you win. If Cowboy loses then you get your first wager refunded up to $49. Either way you can’t lose. Take the dog pricing and max out on your risk of at least $49 on this fight.
**Note the only bet that qualifies is the pre-match fight winner. Must be a straight bet. Must be a cash bet.**

As you can see from some of the movement on the odds board, there are a lot of underdogs that bettors like in this card. There are also some betting options for the entire card. You can bet over/under the number of total Decision victories (5.5 over +150), KO/TKO victories (5.5 under -130), and Submission victories (1.5 over -130) or take a swing at a piñata prop that is paying +2500 for the total number of rounds in UFC 249. You can also bet on the UFC SIM events which are being streamed on twitch and you can even parlay the SIM events with the real UFC card for some crazy parlay payout odds. This is going to be a very crazy mix.