Over/under win totals propostion bet: Cover the over on these six teams
Here’s a traditional proposition bet that will prove well more challenging than usual to NFL bettors in 2020: over/under win totals. Preseason games and rumors out of training camp are hardly a bonanza of information for betting the NFL, but geez, some information is better than none. And pragmatically speaking, season-ending injuries to players before opening day have certainly saved many a bad regular-season prop bet.
Nevertheless, what are you going to do? Not bet the over/under win total propositions? Don’t be ridiculous! Today, a brief look at the overs we’re recommending the NFL bettor cover in this prop in 2020.
• Kansas City Chiefs, over 11½ wins
• Baltimore Ravens, over 11½ wins. No brainers both, really. NFLbets always says that some change must be figured in when predicting the upcoming NFL season, the reasoning being that not every playoff team will make the playoffs again, not every sub-.500 team will again have a losing record. Kansas City won 11 of Patrick Mahomes’s 14 starts last season and lost no major parts from the most dynamic offense the NFL has seen in a while.
Meanwhille, the Ravens were rewarded for their 14-2 season with the league’s easiest schedule for 2020 (based on 2019 win-loss records of opposition). Even if you believe the Cleveland Browns will be improved (NFLbets does) or that the Pittsburgh Steelers will be competitive (NFLbets doesn’t), it’s still pretty difficult to imagine Baltimore dropping five games on this schedule – hell, they might not have five games against playoff teams…
• Dallas Cowboys, over 10 wins. NFLbets says 2020 is a put-up or shut-up season for the Cowboys and we believe they will in fact finally put up some quality wins. Word from Cowboys camp on first-round draft pick WR CeeDee Lamb is outstanding; if so, Lamb plus Amari Cooper and Michael Gallup could be the best receiving corps big 3 in the league. Throwing to them is Dak Prescott, certainly feeling disrespected in a contract year and Ezekiel Elliott, probably the biggest breakaway threat in the league.
O, and the new head coach. How best to summarize how much an improvement any coach – never mind the Super Bowl-winning, .618 winning percentage having Mike McCarthy? How about the fact that Jason Garrett’s record as head coach of the Cowboys from 2010 to ’19 was a pathetic 6-16 SU (and just 4-18 ATS) in all games played on fewer than seven days off? The ’Pokes were 8-8 SU in 2019 and have two short weeks this year. This much talent plus competent coaching should be good for at least 10 wins and the push.
• Cleveland Browns, over 8 wins. Yes, skepticism regarding the Browns is justifiably high after too much hype preceded last season. But, like the Cowboys, these Browns feel like a collection of great talent waiting for competency at head coach. We’ll give ’em one more shot.
• Atlanta Falcons, over 7½ wins. NFLbets likes the Falcons to at least go .500 in 2020 for two reasons: quality of division and continuity. Heretical though it may be, NFLbets is not buying the hype on the New Orleans Saints and Tampa Bay Buccaneers, two teams too dependent on aging QBs, all lifetime achievement aside. And the Carolina Panthers are in serious rebuilding mode.
NFLbets has discussed the possible importance of continuity in 2020 with its limited preseason prep time previously, but here’s Atlanta’s case one more time: Going into ’20, Matt Ryan is the NFL’s longest-tenured starting QB for his present team, and Julio Jones has been his no. 1 receiver for the past nine seasons. As recently as ’18, Jones led the NFL in receiving yards per game and while the Falcons have been through a few OCs since Ryan’s debut in ’08, the offense has nine times been top-10 in total yardage and has never been lower-ranked than no. 16.
• Arizona Cardinals, over 7½ wins. NFLbets is a bit baffled by this number. Sure, the Cardinals had a poorly protected rookie QB and a bottom-5 defense last season, but offseason 2020 was very good to Arizona. Headlines were made by stealing away WR DeAndre Hopkins from the Houston Texans, but on the defensive side, the Cards grabbed LBs Devon Kennard and DeVondre Campbell, CB Dre Kirkpatrick and DT Jordan Phillips in free agency to fill some holes on the defensive side.
Plus, even if you don’t believe that the Cardinals could grab wins against the downward-trending San Francisco 49ers and Los Angeles Rams, games against the Lions, Panthers, Dolphins, Jets and Giants alone should match the 2019 Cardinals’ win total of 5…
–written by Os Davis