To enjoy success, the NFL bettor must avoid the more commonly-held irrational beliefs about NFL football. You know, stuff like “Team X always wins at home” or “Team Y will be as good as/worse than last year” or the classic “Team Z always screws me.” Bettors must, as they say in football land, take these games one at a time.
And do the research.
Rethinking the preconceptions is particularly well done after week 2 games. NFLbets is fairly well certain everyone’s sick of losing in weeks 1 and 2. Fair enough, these opening weeks are not a time of the NFL season for the fainthearted but it is now imperative to adjust expectations.
Below runs the official weekly recap from NFLbets, with results adjusted for the point spread. Game results in bold are those in which the SU winner failed to cover the spread.
• New York Giants 29 at Washington Football Team 26½
A not-so-fascinating Thursday Night Football matchup on paper turned out to be fun for fans, punishing for NFL bettors. Who besides the homers had the Giants money line (ML)? Who bet the over? As for prior-held expectations, NFLbets is dialing back on Washington FT: Last year’s world-beating defense giving up 29 points to Danny D. Jones is a very bad sign.
• Dallas Cowboys 20 at Los Angeles Chargers 14
Sooooooo, the Cowboys win the NFC East? All right, then…
• Carolina Panthers 26, New Orleans Saints 4
NFLbets has been down on the 2021 Saints since the preseason, but we’ll have to admit to potentially sleeping on the Panthers a bit. Last season, Carolina jettisoned Cam Newton and revamped the coaching staff with a troika from the college ranks: HC Matt Rhule, OC Joe Brady and DC Phil Snow. This is year 2 of the rebuild and they now have a quarterback (if not *the* quarterback) whom Rhule et al chose. Carolina might be dangerous.
• Buffalo Bills 31½, Miami Dolphins 0
• New England Patriots 19 at New York Jets 6
Aaaaaaaaaaand just like that the pecking order in the AFC East seems pretty well determined – except that Buffalo and New England won’t meet until December, in week 14, when both should be about 9-4…
• Tampa Bay Buccaneers 35½, Atlanta Falcons 25
NFLbets is very, very ashamed that we took the 2021 Atlanta Falcons seriously as a viable franchise. Nothing looks good in Atlanta, and we have to wonder if Kyle Pitts becomes the first-ever NFL player to demand a trade before his rookie season is up. Meanwhile, yep, go ahead an pencil in the Buccaneers for the NFC Championship Game at very least.
• Indianapolis Colts 24 at Los Angeles Rams 23½
• Tennessee Titans 33, Seattle Seahawks 26½
• Minnesota Vikings 33 at Arizona Cardinals 30½
• San Francisco 49ers 14 Philadelphia Eagles 11
. After dominating their individual competitions in week 1, the teams of the NFC West were collectively getting much hype going into week 2, when they … well, they pretty much dominated again, going 3-1 SU. While only Seattle lost outright, the Cardinals probably would have had not the Vikings vikingsed, and neither the Rams nor the 49ers crushed the other side as they should have. No real adjustment of expectations here necessarily, but bettors may want to think twice about giving too many points against decent competition.
• Chicago Bears 18½, Cincinnati Bengals 17
• Denver Broncos 17 at Jacksonville Jaguars 13
OK, so not *every* game taught bettors something about relevant teams. (Nope we’re still not believing in Denver after games against the Giants and Jaguars…)
• Houston Texans 21 at Cleveland Browns 17½
• Las Vegas Raiders 26, Pittsburgh Steelers 11
• Baltimore Ravens 36, Kansas City Chiefs 31
We’re not making too much of the Browns loss ATS against a too-high spread or the Ravens win SU/ATS against a nearly non-existent Chiefs defense, but surely no one save the Pittsburgh homers honestly believe the Steelers are contenders this season.
• Green Bay Packers 23½, Detroit Lions 17
Putting “against the Lions” at the end of any sentence in an NFL betting piece really minimizes the achievement, doesn’t it? As in, “Hey, the Packers were giving double-digit points and still won ATS by almost a touchdown … against the Lions. (Sound of deflation.)
–written by Os Davis