NFL betting: News, information, odds shifts


NFLbets is all about how the action in America’s professional football league relates to betting and though the opportunity to get real insider information is more limited all the time, the NFL bettor must keep up-to-date on the latest news – particularly injuries. NFLbets will be focusing on news stories which involve immediate relevance to the games ahead.

We’ve all seen what result when a team loses a starting left tackle, free safety or “skill player” to injury or suspension. In addition, NFL football of the 21st century increasingly runs into another issue taking away players, namely suspensions for drug-related and/or violent activity. Again, though the window of opportunity to leverage injury and suspension information is quite brief indeed, knowing ahead of time always beats ignorance.

NFLbets also seeks to cater to fans of one of the NFL’s 32 teams, and our news stories are compiled for each NFL market within our “team pages” so that fans may follow the progress of their favorites – not to mention check our track record, win or lose. And hopefully we’ll demonstrate throughout that our only bias is toward making money. We’re cheering for the bettors against the house here, and week to week we care only that our picks come through – for the readers and us.

Finally, NFLbets pledges to keep all speculation and opinion to the “Rants” section. In this area, we’ll try to keep things purely informational (no mean feat in a “post-fact” world) – just the facts and no “fake news” here.

NFLbets wishes all bettors the best of luck; let’s all make some money out there, okay?


Best Bets, NFL week 11: Judging the relative mediocrity of certain teams

Wednesday, 13 November 2019 18:08 EST

Sentimentality and hype have no place in proper NFL betting. If bettors were really worried about the aesthetics of the game being played, half the week’s slate would be no-goes right off the bat. Seriously, do you realize how many bad and/or disappointing teams are “playing” this season?

Depending on how you feel about the 2019 Miami Dolphins, NFLbets counts at least three other teams which, in any other season, would unquestionably be the NFL’s worst: Washington, the Jets and the Cincinnati Bengals – and by the time this season is over, the New York Giants just might join this bunch. Disappointments? You bet – How about the L.A. Rams, Cleveland Browns, Chicago Bears plus the Atlanta Falcons and “Los Angeles” Chargers (if you believed; NFLbets didn’t).

Thus it is in the spirit of exploiting all resources available – in this case, the bottom-feeders and all-but-eliminated from playoff contention – are this week’s NFLbets Best Bets offered.

Arizona Cardinals +11 at San Francisco 49ers, over/under 45½ points

Sheesh, you’d think that after the 49ers finally took a loss, these lines would come down a bit, but nope. The truth is that lines on San Francisco have been way too high these past four games, a run in which they’re 1-3 ATS against lines of -10, -4½, 10½ and -5½ (last week vs the now 8-2 Seahawks) – shouldn’t we be a tad suspicious of another double-digit spread?

The truth is the Cardinals are a league-best 7-3 ATS, including 3-1 in away games, 5-1 in their last six and 2-2 against prospective playoff teams. Three of their six SU losses were within 6 points, and they’ve managed to score an average of 23.0 points in the last six games, including the 25 they hung on these 49ers two weeks previous.

The sole chink in the armor an awesome San Francisco defense is the run – though, as Kyler Murray learned in the week 9 game, not necessarily the running quarterback. Instead, newly aquired Kenyon Drake ripped the Niners for 110 yards on 15 carries.

See, this is what NFLbets just doesn’t get. The Cardinals have been playing above their level all year, they’re ready for a 49ers team on a short week after an overtime MNF game. Sure, the Niners will likely win – but these Cards will not be pushed aside so easily. We’re saying take the Cardinals +11 vs San Francisco and what the hell, take the over on an O/U of 45½ points.

Cincinnati Bengals +10½ at Oakland(/Las Vegas) Raiders, over/under 48½ points

Just in case you need numerical quantification to define just how bad the 0-9 SU (3-6 ATS) Bengals are, NFLbets reminds that Cincy is dead last in total and rushing yards allowed, and they rank no. 31 in rushing TDs allowed and yards per rush attempt. The Raiders have Josh Jacobs. In this case, things are that simple. Take the Oakland/Las Vegas Raiders -10½ vs Cincinnati.

New York Jets +1 at Washington, over/under 37½

Some might call anyone who bets on this game a true degenerate gambler. Heck, NFLbets might call you that, too – but we’d mean it in the positive sense. Besiders, NFL bettors should rarely be looking at a team’s SU record at all. Geez, Miami has won five straight ATS and is defying expectations in favor of gamblers well more than, likesay, the Kansas City Chiefs at 4-6 ATS.

Unfortunately, ATS records aren’t too informational for our purposes in betting this game – both teams are an identical 3-6. Besides, betting on either side essentially amounts to a “pick ‘em” bet unless you’re betting on a tie. (Wait a minute … that might not be such a bad idea…)

So, yeah, NFLbets has been thinking about the over/under here for quite some time; 37½ is one seriously low line: Only 20 games since 2014 have gone off with over/unders of 37½ points or less, and only two have posted lines smaller than 37. Naturally, the over in all games with an O/U of 37 or 37½ is … 8-8. Overs in the 10 games with an O/U of exactly 37½ are slightly better at 6-4.

Given the point spread of Jets +1, the 37½-point over/under would imply a final score prediction of about 19-19. Washington topped this twice – in weeks 1 and 2. The Jets have also done so twice, including last week against the Giants, meaning that the highest-scoring games by either the Jets or Washington have all come against NFC East teams – Ugly!

So can the 31st- and 32nd-most prolific scoring offenses in the NFL hit a very low over? This game’s got “outlier” written all over it. Take the over on an O/U of 37½.

NFLbets’ Best Bets last week: 1-1.
NFLbets’ Best Bets this season: 10-13.

–written by Os Davis

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NFL betting, week 11 picks: We see points, lots of points…

Wednesday, 13 November 2019 18:03 EST

In NFL betting, it’s often more prudent to bet the under – hey, other than a cover-the-ass bet on Julian Edelman for MVP, the under was about all NFLbets hit in Super Bowl LIII – but it’s always more fun to bet on the over.

Our picks of the week is grounded in that desire that all football fans secretly foster, i.e. to see a ton of points fly by on the screen on any given Sunday: The interception may be the most glorious play in football, but there’s a reason the Red Zone concludes their broadcast with a rundown of the day’s TDs. We hope you feel the same way we do about NFL football and betting going hand in hand like Peanut Butter and Jelly, or Sprinkles on your Ice Cream or, a stack of $1 bills in a strip club. Money won is just better than money after taxes and working for 2 weeks. lol!

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Houston Texans +4½ at Baltimore Ravens, over/under 49½ points

How ironic that back in the day (likesay, two years ago), the Texans and Ravens were noted for their defense: In week 11, they’re entering a game with perhaps the two most exciting quarterbacks in football right now and an over/under implying seven TDs.

But you know what? We’re all over it. For NFLbets’ money (literally), this could well be the best game of the year and a seemingly inevitable semifinal, no. 2 vs no. 3 matchup. And we may be biased – every so often we dig a real scoreboard-spinner – but we’re anticipating some serious scoring here. DeShaun Watson has accounted for 23 touchdowns (18 passing, 5 running), while Lamar Jackson’s notched 21 (15 passing, 6 running). In an average meeting, then, five TDs should be expected from these two for starters.

NFLbets also figures the weather will not be a factor, with early weather predictions putting kickoff temperature in the low 50s with a 10% chance of precipitation. Sounds like scoring weather to us…Take the over on an O/U of 49½.

New Orleans Saints -5½ at Tampa Bay Buccaneers, over/under 51½ points

What, did we say the Texans/Ravens over/under was high? We know the Buccaneers have been scoring points in bunches – 29.9 per since game 3, including the 24 rung up against the Saints in a 7-point loss in week 5 – and they could very well put up 30+ against a New Orleans defense that’s above average in all statistical categories except, unfortunately, the Buccaneers offense’s weakness, namely turnovers.

So the Bucs will score, probably. But will the Saints?

It’s amazing both a) how sentimental fans are about Drew Brees and therefore still expect him to be throwing like he’s 25 years old and b) how willing certain clickbaiters were to throw him under the bus after a single bad game. Brees is 2-1 SU (1-2 ATS) in full games this year, and he produced essentially the same stat line in the first two: 32-of-43 for 370 yards, 2 TDs, 1 pick; in week 8, the line was 34-of-43 for 373 yards, 3 TDs and 1 interception. Last week in the so-called benching-worthy loss? Brees went 32 of 45 – but for just 273 yards, a long of 36 – and six sacks.

Those six sacks are increasing the difficulty curve on betting this game sharply. The offensive line is solid and injury-free. Week 10 was the much ballyhooed return of Alvin Kamara and Jared Cook, playing with Brees at the same time for the first time this season, so the excuse that Brees held the ball too long is irrelevant. Under normal circumstances, we’d probably write this result off as an anomaly – after all, the SU win against the biggest point spread of the year is by definition an exceptional result. So why not the over here?

The scariest number against the over? The Buccaneers are on an incredible 7-0 ATS run, they’ve already topped two consecutive 50-poin O/Us and 51½ is the highest they’ve faced in 2019. However, the over in Saints games in on a 1-3 run and is 4-5 overall.

Who doesn’t want more points, anyway…? Take the over on an O/U of 51½ points.

NFLbets’ Picks of the Week last week: 3-1.
NFLbets’ Picks of the Week this season: 30-16.

Check here for the current NFL Weekly Odds.

 

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NFL week 10 ATS results: Hard realities for Chargers, Rams, Cowboys, Chiefs...

Wednesday, 13 November 2019 12:12 EST

Well, NFL week 10 sure established a few things, eh? Dirt may pretty much be shoveled onto the playoff chances of the “Los Angeles” Chargers and Los Angeles Rams. Chicago is now stuck with Mitch Trubisky for a few more weeks after the awesome Matt Patricia-coached defense allowed him to throw for three TDs. The Kansas City Chiefs are no longer even a top-3 contender to win the AFC. And the Dallas Cowboys are the Dallas Cowboys.

NFLbets’ roundup of week 8 results with scores adjusted for point spreads runs below; scores marked in bold indicate those games in which the SU and ATS result differed.

• Las Vegas/Oakland Raiders 26, “Los Angeles” Chargers 22½. Look, at least two things should have been made abundantly clear by this game: The Raiders are making the playoffs, the Chargers are not. NFLbets really can’t wait until the inevitable labelling of Chucky’s Guys as “The Greatest Team About To Leave Their Home City of All-Time.”

Minnesota Vikings 28 at Dallas Cowboys 20½. The proper NFL bettor does not assign attributes to teams and thus superstitiously avoid making good wagers, e.g. “I’m not betting the Panthers because I always lose money on them.” Having said (written?) that, these Cowboys…

• Pittsburgh Steelers 17, Los Angeles Rams 8½. Realistically speaking, the Rams been eliminated from playoff contention: At 1½ games behind current NFC no. 6 Minnesota and 2½ back of Seattle, L.A. may as well begin the tanking process in haste – except their first-round draft pick belongs to Jacksonville. Worse yet, the Rams have bigger, more expensive fish to fry: Aaron Donald, Andrew Whitworth, Dante Fowler Jr., Robert Woods, Todd Gurley are on contracts worth $42.78 million, plus Jared Goff stands to make $9.63 million on his unnecessarily restricted deal of this past offseason. Well, it looked good for about a year and a half there…

• New York Jets 34, New York Giants 24. Currently active high-level profession sports teams based in New York City include the Jets, Giants, Knicks, Brooklyn Nets and Rangers. So … um … go Islanders?

• Miami Dolphins 16 at Indianapolis Colts 2. With the Dolphins’ fifth consecutive win ATS, the bandwagon filling, and the still criminally overrated Bills coming to Miami next week, this seems like a really solid opportunity to bet against the plucky Fins.

• Chicago Bears 17½, Detroit Lions 13
• Atlanta Falcons 40, New Orleans Saints 9. Oddities aplenty in these two previews of Thanksgiving Day games, including Atlanta notching the biggest ATS upset of 2019 thus far while topping the Bears’ and Lions’ scores combined. Let’s hope these games are a bit higher quality, because on Sunday these guys were messier than your toothless uncle eating creamed corn while discussing impeachment at the holiday table.

• Cleveland Browns 16, Buffalo Bills 16. The only way the result of this sad sack of an NFL game that would be more appropriate is an actual SU tie.

• Arizona Cardinals 27, Tampa Bay Buccaneers 24½
• Green Bay Packers 19, Carolina Panthers 16. The Cardinals and Packers each currently stand at an impressive 7-3 ATS, which naturally makes NFLbets wants to throw big bucks against them both – but Green Bay’s on a bye, and Arizona is getting a way too high 10½ points at San Francisco, who’s on a short week. Make it tough, why don’tcha, sportsbooks?

• Baltimore Ravens 38½, Cincinnati Bengals 13. Since somehow giving up 40 points to Baker Mayfield and the Cleveland Browns, the Ravens are 5-0 SU (3-2 ATS and on a 3-0 run) and have between their last three opponents by 14, 17 and 36. They’re just waiting to ruin bets in the next couple of weeks…

• Tennessee Titans 35 at Kansas City Chiefs 27. Is the polish off the apple yet (and we don’t mean the Chiefs red-decked Andy Reid)?

• Seattle Seahawks 27 at San Francisco 49ers 18. Here’s to thinking that, in a Seahawks-Patriots Super Bowl LIV, Pete Carroll’s gonna wish he had a Beast Mode to run straight down the middle...

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Best Bets for week 10: Betting on underrated Dolphins, demoralized Bears

Wednesday, 06 November 2019 18:37 EST

As explained elsewhere, NFLbets is changing things up in hopes of improving our fortune – superstitious nonsense, we’re well aware. This seaosn’s gone fairly poorly for NFLbets in these “Best Bets” while we're doing just swimmingly in “Picks of the Week”, so perhaps a change of scenery for the column itself will work. Yeah, surrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrre.

In any case, the following are a couple of wagers that we’re calling our Best Bets. The opposite, Jerry, the opposite!

Miami Dolphins +10 at Indianapolis Colts

Whoa, does this line show some disrespect for the Dolphins! However, either NFL bettors are wiser vis-à-vis the not-even historically bad Fins or a lotta Miami diehards are plunking down big money, as this line has retreated from Colts -11 to Colts -10 between Sunday night and Wednesday.

The truth is that the Dolphins have been well underrated by the sportsbook in the second quarter of the season. After starting out 0-4 SU/ATS while getting outscored 163-26, the Dolphins have subsequently won four straight ATS vs spreads ranging from 3½ to 17 versus fellow bottom-feeders (Washington, New York Jets) or the very overrated (Pittsburgh, Buffalo).

Much of what remains on the Miami roster post-trade deadline could be exactly what fans so often lament: A group of guys who may not be the best but play hard every game. We’re not saying that piss and vinegar alone has done teams of the past, likesay the 2008 Detroit Lions, much good, but enthusiasm can win games ATS – those winless Lions were 7-8-1 ATS.

This week, the new spread-busters take on a Colts team that’s already ridden the overrated/underrated rollercoaster this season and now appear to be stuck near the top. This despite the reality that Jacoby “The Revelation” Brissett will likely not be at QB in this game. Common perception, blinded by past reputation, would have believe that much of Brissett’s success is due to an awesome line, but Football Outsiders’ DVOA metric has the Colts OL ranked just 17th in pass protection.

In fact, much of Indianapolis’s success in 2019 thus far may be credited to Brissett. Sure, Marlon Mack gives them a viable weapon out of the backfield – but the Colts have scored a total of four rushing TDs this season, and one is Brissett’s.

Now don’t get NFLbets wrong here: The Colts can, and likely will, do enough to win this game. But we just need the Dolphins to play it close, a knack for which they’ve been demonstrating recently; the Colts, meanwhile, are facing one too many unknowns with their meal ticket punched out. And this line makes Indy look a little … overrated.

Chase the Dolphins for one more week. Take the Miami Dolphins +10 at Indianapolis.

Detroit Lions +2½ at Chicago Bears, over/under 41½ points

For most of 2019, NFLbets has been pounding the under in Chicago Bears games due to the team’s top-notch defense and bottom-notch passing game. (Mostly the latter, to be honest.) The strategy has served us well, as the under is now 5-3 when Chicago’s involved. This week, though, the story may be different.

Mitchell Trubisky has apparently demoralized his team enough that, on their current four-game SU/ATS losing streak, the still statistically impressive D has allowed 99 points – not exactly the best run when Detroit’s next up. The Lions have scored 24 or more in six of their eight games in ’19. (The Lions’ scoring totals become even more impressive when considering they have little to no running game to speak of and thus a seriously transparent game plan.)

There’s even a plus side for ol’ Mitch here: These Lions are incredibly bad against the pass, ranking bottom-3 in yards allowed, passing yards allowed and first downs surrendered. And they’re bottom-5 or -10 in essentially every run defense stat imaginable. IF the OL wants to save Trubisky’s job (that’s a coinflip, probably), perhaps they can give David Montgomery a little run blocking to better than weak 3.6 yards per carry.

NFLbets certainly isn’t confident enough to pick a winner in this game, but we love the possibility of points. Take the over on an O/U of 41½ points.

NFLbets’ Best Bets last week: 0-3.
NFLbets’ Best Bets this season: 9-12.

–written by Os Davis

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Week 10 Picks of the Week: Doing the opposite (or rather the reverse)

Wednesday, 06 November 2019 14:24 EST

All right, NFLbets is changing things up this week. After our typical slow start to the season, several good weeks in a row have put us back in the black – under the “Picks of the Week”, rubric, that is. Our so-called “Best Bets” were a total whiff again last week to dump NFLbets’ record for 2019 down to 9-12.

So, yeah. This week, we’re Costanzianly doing the opposite. This week’s Picks of the Week are stealthily our Best Bets and vice versa. NFLbets doesn’t know how that’ll affect your wagering, but full transparency, eh?

What we’re calling NFLbets’ Picks of Week 10 follow.

“Los Angeles” Chargers -1½ at Oakland(/Las Vegas) Raiders

Throw out the numbers: This line is essentially asking you to choose which is the better team: The veteran-stocked team without a home or the surprisingly ragtag bunch getting set to leave home? The Chargers window of Super Bowl contention may already by closed, while Chucky and his plucky Raiders are doing their damnedest to pry that sucker open and force their way into the playoffs.

And consider the greater trends, the actual football these teams are playing. The Raiders recently came off five consecutive road games, including three against prospective playoff teams (Minnesota, Green Bay and Houston) or four (depending on how you feel about Indianapolis’s chances with their third choice at quarterback the rest of the way), plus the London game, at a respectable-enough 2-3 SU (3-2 ATS). Last week, they handled Detroit in front of a raucous crowd and this week face a team with no discernible fanbase at all.

So what about those homeless, fan-less Chargers lately? Sure enough, they won SU/ATS in Los Angeles in front of a just-as-raucous crowd of Packers fans for their first “home” win of the season. Prior to that, the Chargers scored 17 points to eke out a 1-point W in Chicago. Prior to that, a 1-5 run had removed them from serious discussion of the 2019 NFL playoffs temporarily.

Both teams, then, are trending upward and both are currently in serious contention for the no. 6 spot. But you know what? Only the Raiders have Josh Jacobs, who has been tormenting defenses over the past four weeks. This dude plus homefield advantage should be enough in this one. Take the 1½ points if you must, but here at NFLbets’ we prefer to take the Raiders ML at +105 for well better value.

Los Angeles Rams -3½ at Pittsburgh Steelers

Whoa, have the Rams been good to bettors this season. The 2018 NFC champs are at 6-2 ATS (including a spiffy 5-0 ATS outside of Los Angeles), tied for league best along with the New Orleans Saints. Of course, this gaudy record makes NFLbets want to bet against the Rams just weekly – but what are we supposed to do when L.A. is currently in one helluva soft spot in the schedule?

Seriously, after a couple of tough losses against fellow NFC West playoff contenders Seattle and San Francisco, the Rams drew Atlanta and Cincinnati, followed by a bye. Next week, they draw Chicago, which may become the first NFL team ever to field an offense without a quarterback. Not that the 2019 Los Angeles Rams need a puff schedule to look scary; though the pass defense has lost a beat from last year, the offense is top-10 in most statistical categories and, until the 49ers game, scoring had hardly been a problem.

Pittsburgh meanwhile features second-/third-string quarterback Mason Rudolph, whose 3-2 SU record as a starter looks impressive enough until you realize that tops among the wins was last week’s over Indianapolis with *their* third-string QB and Adam Vinatieri’s old foot and depended on a 96-yard pick-six.

On one hand, the Steelers’ starting quarterback seems not to matter. Regardless of QB, Pittsburgh’s is a poor offense which is bottom-5 in passing yardage, rushing yardage and first downs. Because of freak plays like Minkah Fitzpatrick’s TD, however, the Steelers have managed 20 to 27 points in every game after the 33-3 drubbing the Patriots handed them in week 1. And gifts like Vinatieri’s shank has them on a 5-1 ATS run going into this game.

Which is exactly why we’re saying take the Los Angeles Rams -3½ at Pittsburgh. Sometimes you just have to back the better team – especially after a bye week.

Seattle Seahawks +6 at San Francisco 49ers

The Seahwaks this season have proven the diametric opposite to the Rams to NFL bettors. While arguably one of the surprises of the league, the ’Hawks are a mere 3-5 ATS and an incredible 0-5 ATS in Seattle. This team’s propensity for just doing enough for the win may make for exciting football, but it’s maddening for those with money down.

So why is NFLbets even considering the eventuality that Seattle’s numbers stay so wickedly imbalanced for one more week? Because the 49ers have been absolutely whupping the ’spreads in 2019. San Francisco has apparently put together a Super Bowl contender about a year early: the Niners are a healthy 5-3 ATS, including a 3-0 ATS mark at home.

About that home record of the 49ers … NFLbets is inclined to neuter that particular number this week because the Seahawks have proven not only this season but in general to enjoy the advantage over West Coast teams: Since Russell Wilson’s debut in 2012, they’re 6-3-1 ATS (5-5 SU) at Los Angeles and San Francisco.

The 49ers haven’t been playing the most impressive of competition – only two of their eight wins came against teams with winning records – but that no. 1 pass defense cannot be denied and since the bye week have enjoyed a turnover differential of +5. Then again, this D has yet to see the likes of Wilson, again tops in the league in passing when pressured.

Fair enough, Seattle squeaked past the inferior-if-exciting Buccaneers last week in OT, but many were thinking upset when center Austin Britt was reported out. The key to the Seahawks keeping this one close will be improving upon the three sacks allowed to a pass rush that isn’t half as deadly as San Francisco’s.

In the final analysis, though, NFLbets is making a football call here. We believe that Russell Wilson is probably the MVP right now. We also believe that the Seahwaks are a true Super Bowl contender. And MVP QBs leading Super Bowl contenders win these sorts of games. SU, we’re talking. Sure, take the Seattle Seahawks +6, but also take the Seahawks ML at +230 – a payout here is like three wins for the price of two!

NFLbets’ Picks of the Week last week: 4-2.
NFLbets’ Picks of the Week this season: 27-15.

Check here for the current NFL Weekly Odds.

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NFL week 9 ATS results: Revenge of the homers (except *#@^#^@ing Seattle)

Tuesday, 05 November 2019 10:33 EST

We probably should have been expecting week 9 to play out like that. Going into the games, the home team had gone just 51-68-2 ATS and 53-63-1 SU; naturally, mathematically, order was restored (or at least well on its way to restoration). The home sides were nearly unstoppable this week at 10-3 ATS (8-5 SU) which in itself produced some weird results: Arizona and Miami winning ATS in the same week; the Patriots getting smoked on the road; and the Chargers recording their best-ever victory at the soccer stadium.

On the other hand, the Seahawks infuriatingly dropped their game in Seattle ATS. The Seahawks are a seriously ugly outlier this season: As the team’s no. 2 home team ATS, the ’Hawks are a sad 0-4 at home thus far in 2019. NFLbets thinks Pete Carroll owes us some money for all these heart-attack SU wins/ ATS losses at this point.

NFLbets’ roundup of week 8 results with scores adjusted for point spreads runs below; scores marked in bold indicate those games in which the SU and ATS result differed.

• Arizona Cardinals 25, San Francisco 49ers 17½. So the 49ers are now 8-0 SU (5-3 ATS), but in their second half get six of eight games against prospective playoff teams: vs Seattle, vs Green Bay, at Baltimore, at New Orleans, vs the Rams and at Seattle. This feels a lot like 3-5 ATS the rest of the way and, as much as the hypemongers want a New England-San Francisco Super Bowl, that’s no easy road for Jimmy G. & Co.

• Houston Texans 24½ at London Jaguars 3. Speaking of the Super Bowl, NFLbets has said (written?) it before and will say (write?) it again: At times, the 2019 Houston Texans seriously resemble a championship team now that the OL is respectable (just seven sacks allowed in the past five games, which might be a franchise record). And yeah, we’ve heard about J.J. Watt’s injury.

• Kansas City Chiefs 26, Minnesota Vikings 17½. Hey, maybe when Patrick Mahomes gets back, the Chiefs should consider sticking with Matt Moore! #QuarterbackControversy.

• “Los Angeles” Chargers 26, Green Bay Packers 7. Clearly the upset of the week – how many parlays did this result kill? And as a result of the win, Chargers management is apparently seriously considering relocating to London, U.K., perhaps to finally give this franchise its first homefield advanage since Stan Humphries was at QB.

Buffalo Bills 13½, Washington 9. You wanna talk regression to the mean? Consider Washington, a city with a Stanley Cup and World Series championships fresh on the mantel – but with an NBA team doomed to last-place finishes until John Wall retires from the league, and an NFL team that … well, you know how bad they are.

Carolina Panthers 26½, Tennessee Titans 20. Wait a minute, an NFC South/AFC South game with a result that makes sense? Hold everything here, it’s Mandela Effect time…

• Oakland/Las Vegas Raiders 28½, Detroit Lions 24. On the other hand, NFLbets doesn’t believe there’s a universe alternate enough to consider these particular Raiders bona fide contenders. Personally, we’re looking forward to Gruden et al winning 5 or 6 of their last eight, squeaking into the no. 6 spot in the AFC playoffs at 9-7 and just getting torched in Kansas City. We’re counting the money now.

• Miami Dolphins 26, New York Jets 14½. Break up the Dolphins! Hey, somebody had to say it...

Denver Broncos 24, Cleveland Browns 15. Note to Cleveland Browns: Do you realize that you’ve got a guy on your staff who has four Grey Cup titles under his belt, including one as head coach and two as defensive coordinator? And instead you’re running with a head coach whose résumé’s major highlight is “works well with Baker Mayfield”? Come on, guys … #FreeChrisJones

• Philadelphia Eagles 17, Chicago Bears 14. The biggest disappointment of the 2019 NFL season for both fans and bettors alike? The Chicago Bears, and it’s not even close. After going a ridiculous 12-5 ATS (including 7-2 ATS at home) in 2018, Da Bearssssssss are tied with the bottom-feeding Falcons, Browns and Jets at 2-6 in ’19. Ah well, at least the under is still a great play with Trubisky at the helm…

• Baltimore Ravens 37, New England Patriots 14. Come on, don’t be so shocked. You didn’t *really* think the Patriots were gonna go 16-0 SU this season, did you?

• Pittsburgh Steelers 26, Indianapolis Colts 24. ’Member how Adam Vinatieri won ta couple of Super Bowls for New England with field goals? ’Member how his 12 points was the margin of victory in Indy’s Super Bowl win? Neither does anyone else who bet on the Colts this week after that ridiculous shank. In truth, that freakish display might ultimately the difference between Indianapolis a playoff spot, too.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 34 at Seattle Seahawks 33½. Now, some might say that NFLbets losing this bet by a half-point was karma for winning twice by half a point last week. To those people we say … ah, nevermind.

PS. The Game went over due to a blowen call that might sting for some

Dallas Cowboys 30½ at New York Giants 18. You have to love how the Cowboys D totally took charge at the line of … oh, kitty! What a nice kitty kitty kitty, good kitty…

Things are just starting to get interesting in NFL betting in 2019, so sign up with MyBookie in time for next week’s games and enjoy an exclusive bonus offer from NFLbets for up to $1,000 in free bets – use promo code NFLBETS when depositing at MyBookie.com!


Last-minute bets for week 9: Looking for Lions, Dolphins to surprise

Friday, 01 November 2019 09:23 EST

At NFLbets, we’ve always thought that playing “pick ‘em pools” or participating in any contest which requires one to pick every game on the NFL slate every week is folly. However, maybe you’ve been suckered into an office pool or you’re looking for a third, fourth, fifth or sixth team to go along with NFLbets’ Picks of the Week or Best Bets for week 9 – so check out these not-necessarily-recommendations when considering how to fill that ticket.

Minnesota Vikings -2½ at Kansas City Chiefs
With Patrick Mahomes almost certain to miss this contest, the Chiefs look like a team that will losing its fourth straight at Arrowhead. It’s that simple, NFL betting enthusiasts… Take the Minnesota Vikings -2½ at Kansas City.

Tennessee Titans +3½ at Carolina Panthers
The 49ers made second-year signal-caller Kyle Allen look awful last weekend, but Tennessee isn’t nearly as good as ’Frisco, which is why i like the Panthers to take care of business in this one as Christian McCaffrey stars. Take the Carolina Panthers -3½ vs Tennessee.

New York Jets -5½ at Miami Dolphins
Miami might be winless, but i’m feeling like karma is going to rear its ugly head when former ’Fins head coach Adam Gase and the lowly Jets hit South Beach this weekend. When it comes to Week 9 NFL odds, take the Miami Dolphins +5½ vs the New York Jets, and, for a fun extra wager cuz NFLbets’s been winning lately, take the Dolphins ML at +150 or so.

Washington +9½ at Buffalo Bills
. Look: The Bills may lose to every decent opponent they face this season, but they’re hardly incompetent. Washington is certainly near such. Take the Buffalo Bills -9½ vs Washington.

Detroit Lions +2 at (Las Vegas/)Oakland Raiders
When it comes to the NFL lines for this Week 9 inter-conference clash, i say take the over on an O/U of 50½ points, seeing as how the Lions and Raiders combine to allow 52.3 points per game defensively. As for the outcome of the game, we’re saying take the Detroit Lions +2 at Oakland and thus also take the Lions on the ML at +105.

Cleveland Browns -2½ at Denver Broncos
It might just be wishful thinking, but here’s to hoping Von Miller and the rest of Denver’s stout defense pounds Baker Mayfield into the dirt – like, repeatedly. Take the Denver Broncos +2½ vs Cleveland.

New England Patriots -3½ at Baltimore Ravens
You heard it here first, NFL gambling faithful: Lamar Jackson leads the Ravens to a confidence-boosting win at home against Tom Brady and the unbeaten defending Super Bowl champions. Take the Baltimore Ravens +3½ vs New England, and take the Ravens ML at +140.

Dallas Cowboys -7 at New York Giants
The Cowboys would appear to have gotten their act together, but I don’t trust Jason Garrett. After losing to the Jets a couple of weeks ago, I’m thinking Saquon Barkley and Daniel Jones lead the G-Men to an ATS cover at the very least – but hey, let’s get ballsy: Take the New York Giants +7 vs Dallas and also play the Dallas Cowboys ML at -350. Since no sportsbook – online, in Las Vegas or elsewhere – will offer a parlay with that particular combination (too bad, because such a bet would pay out at +150 or so), play them both separately, and parlay the Cowboys with, likesay, the Colts, Packers and Seahawks

–written by Ben Rapstrew

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Best bets for NFL week 9: What are we missing here?

Wednesday, 30 October 2019 13:57 EST

Superstition of course has no place in profitable sports/NFL betting. This is a particularly necessary dictum for NFLbets in week 9, as, subjectively speaking, it seems that every time we ask, “What are we missing here?” in an obvious-looking line, we lose.

Pure mathematics tells us that such a contention cannot seriously be correct. Sometimes, as Freud said, a cigar is just a cigar. And sometimes easy lines are just easy lines. The following represents what NFLbets considers (perhaps foolishly, admittedly) easy pickings for this weekend, our Best Bets for week 9.

Indianapolis Colts at Pittsburgh Steelers, over/under 42½ points

Please note that, as a “pick ‘em” game, records and stats ATS are noted purely for interest, as you’re essentially making a money line (ML) bet. Should you buy this line up to Colts +1 or Steelers +1, you may also treat this as a ML bet, unless you think this one ends in a tie.

Did no bookmaker watch last week’s Monday Night Football game? Because what NFLbets saw was a third-string QB looking like a second-string QB at best, an offensive line that can’t pass-protect, and a team that couldn’t cover the spread against the NFL’s worst team.

And here comes the go-to line for this time of year, when frauds who’d been beating up on bottom-feeders are exposed (cough Buffalo Bills cough cough hack): Pittsburgh is exactly 0-4 SU (2-2 ATS) against teams with winning records, beginning with the 33-3 beatdown the New England Patriots handed them in week 1. As for homefield advantage, yeah, right: By dint of drawing the Seattle Seahawks and Baltimore Ravens at home, the Steelers are 2-2 SU/ATS in Pittsburgh.

Folks, the 2019 Pittsburgh Steelers are a mediocre team; it’s almost as though they lost All Pro-caliber players in several “skill positions”…

The 2019 Indianapolis Colts, meanwhile, are not a mediocre team. They may have already taken charge of the usually very slippery AFC South and, should the Houston Texans lose at the London Jaguars on Sunday, formally will have. The Colts are currently on pace to draw the no. 2 or no. 3 seed in the AFC and have beaten two teams well better than the Steelers are right now, namely Patrick Mahomes’s Chiefs and DeShaun Watson’s Texans.

Again, we just don’t get this line. Take the Indianapolis Colts at Pittsburgh.

Green Bay Packers -4 at L.A. Chargers, over/under 47 points

Let’s review: Since moving into the soccer pitch in Carson City, the Chargers have gone 3-8 SU (2-8-1 ATS) in “home” games, 1-0 SU (0-1 ATS) in London, and *12-2 SU (11-3-1 ATS) in road games* including playoffs. In fact, the sole regular-season road game the Chargers have lost SU in that span was to the – get this – Los Angeles Rams.

This normally would be enough for NFLbets to shut up and plunk down the money, but let’s drive the point home. (So to speak.) The Packers are coming to town and are likely to fill seats to capacity with transplanted fans. No defense has been able to stop Green Bay since the opening day snoozefest against Chicago, and the Pack has been good for at least 21 points per game since for an average of 29.3 ppg.

And while the big-play defense hasn’t been quite as prolific lately with just three takeaways in the past three games, Green Bay is nevertheless bringing the best D that the Chargers have faced all season regardless – except maybe the Bears, to whom the Chargers managed 17 points on 231 total yards of offense. The Packers D’s weakest area is against the run, so Melvin Gordon is probably a quite-good fantasy play, but as we say at NFLbets, f*** fantasy football. Only a monstrous performance from Gordon will keep this one close. Take the Green Bay Packers -4 vs the Chargers in Los Angeles.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers +6½ at Seattle Seahawks, over/under 51½ points

Right, we’ll keep this one super simple. Let’s spare the obvious non-comparison between these two and just accept that the Seahawks are the far superior team here.

The only relevant stat out there is this: Since 2005, Seattle ranks no. 2 overall ATS at home; Seattle’s 12th Man advantage is mathematically real – and this season, the Seahawks are 0-4 ATS at home. What more do you need? Take the Seattle Seahawks -6½ vs Tampa Bay.

NFLbets’ Best Bets last week: 3-0.
NFLbets’ Best Bets this season: 9-9.

–written by Os Davis

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Week 9 picks: We’re probably betting way too much this week

Wednesday, 30 October 2019 11:11 EST

Well, last week was certainly like shooting fish in a barrel: Between our Picks of the Week and Best Bets, NFLbets went an insane 8-1 in betting.

Now.

The trick when such good fortune and prescient prognostication pays off is of course not to immediately turn the winnings into too many reache – but there’s just so much good stuff in week 9…

NFLbets Picks of Week 9 follow.

San Francisco 49ers -10½ at Arizona Cardinals, over/under 43 points

On the surface level, the 2019 Arizona Cardinals are overachieving nicely with rookie Kyler Murray at the helm and playing in what is clearly the NFL’s best division. The Cards stand at 3-4-1 SU going into this Thursday night football matchup and are averaging a respectable 24.5 points per game.

But take a closer look: Sure, they ran up 34 points on Atlanta and 27 each against Detroit and at the Giants. But against teams with winning records – specifically, at the Baltimore Ravens, vs the Carolina Panthers, vs the Seattle Seahawks at the New Orleans Saints – the Cardinals are a predictable 0-4 at home win/loss record but are a decent 5-3 ATS, averaging a measly 14.0 points. And don’t forget those 26 sacks taken by Murray against just 7 TDs. The 49ers are bringing a defense which is the 2nd-stingiest in points allowed, tops against the pass and just a flat-out badass at bringing the pass rush.

And we haven’t even gotten to Jimmy Garoppolo and that 49ers offense yet. So yeah, we’ll say take the San Francisco 49ers -10½ at Arizona. Normally, we’d also advise to take the under in a TNF game, but the Niners just might score 43 all by themselves in this one…

Chicago Bears +5 at Philadelphia Eagles, over/under 43 points

NFLbets is thinking about this one abstractly first. To put it plainly, the 2019 Bears appear to have contracted a case of Blake Bortles Syndrome – and it’s terminal. Mitch Trubisky and his inability to throw a pass more than 10 yards is utterly demoralizing a team that looked like a Super Bowl contender, never lost a game by more than 7 points and were very good to bettors with a league-best 12-5 ATS.

This season? Five times the opposition has been held to 17 points or less – and the Bears went 3-2 SU (2-3 ATS) in those games. The offense is bottom-10 in most statistical categories; one of few exceptions in pass attempts. And in a year when visitors are just killing it, particularly ATS, the Bears and the Atlanta Falcons are the only teams which have yet to win ATS on the road.

Normally, NFLbets’d stop right here, write “regression to the mean” and advise taking Chicago +5, but these Bears are a tough sell to NFL bettors for sure.

Plus, there is the opposition: The 2019 Philadelphia Eagles, the league’s most frustrating team. At 4-4 SU (3-5 ATS), these Eagles stymied bettors repeatedly over the first 7 weeks of the season and were at a league 2nd-worst 2-5 ATS before taking care of business at the Buffalo Bills last week. Oddly enough, Philadelphia has played four teams with winning records – Packers, Vikings, Cowboys and Bills – and all four were away games.

So despite the shortcomings of these Eagles, NFLbets figures that after three consecutive road games, they’ll be ready to exploit homefield advantage. At just 1-2 ATS in Philly thus far, this is the regression that NFLbets is looking for here. Take the Philadelphia Eagles -5 vs Chicago and take the under on an O/U of 43 points

Houston Texans -1½ at London Jaguars, over/under 46½ points

The fact that NFLbets is betting on this or any AFC South game suggests that we indeed have let last week’s success go to our head, but who can resist betting the UK games? It’s time for another hallowed NFL betting tradition: The breaking out of stats on the Jacksonville Jaguars playing in their second home. NFLbets doesn’t like to lean on history too much for insight into current games, but we’ll make an exception for the UK games due to the special relationship between the Jags and London, not to mention the difference experience makes on this game.

So since the Jaguars/NFL games in London became rote in 2013, the Jaguars are – you guessed it – 3-3 SU/ATS at Wembley. However, the stat we dig lots more is the over/under record in UK Jags games, i.e. the over is 5-1, with the first under hitting last year by 2 points.

How geeked is NFLbets by recent success? We’re going completely against our own grain – not to mention the 50% chance of good old London rain – to advise NFL bettors to take the over on an O/U of 46½ points. J.J. Watt’s absence aside, these are a couple of scoreboard-spinning offenses already. For the record, the most points scored in a U.K.-hosted game is 69 scored by the Saints and Chargers back in 2008. We probably won’t see that many, but NFLbets wouldn’t be surprised if this game produced the most points in week 9.

NFLbets’ Picks of the Week last week: 5-1.
NFLbets’ Picks of the Week this season: 23-13.

Check here for the current NFL Weekly Odds:

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NFL week 8 ATS results: Losing faith in mathematics (sort of)

Tuesday, 29 October 2019 19:43 EST

Last week, away teams ruled ATS in going an impressive 9-4-11 – but in week 8, the visitors really killed it with an 10-3 mark plus one neutral-site game. However, truly crazy is the reality that these results are the norm in 2019: Home teams are, incredibly enough, just 51-68-2 ATS this season; and SU, homers are barely better at 53-63-1.

To further weird things us, consider that while only one team remains undefeated ATS at home thus far are the San Francisco 49ers, four have yet to win at home: The Los Angeles Chargers (if you want to acknowledge the soccer stadium in which Chargers backers are always outnumbered), Kansas City Chiefs, Tampa Bay Buccaneers and, stunningly, the Seattle Seahawks. The Green Bay Packers, Los Angeles Rams and Indianapolis Colts, meanwhile, are undefeated on the road/in neutral-site games at a combined 10-0-1.

NFLbets is, of course, a big believer in regression to the mean, but this trend is nearly enough to shake one’s confidence in numbers.

NFLbets’ roundup of week 8 results with scores adjusted for point spreads runs below; scores marked in bold indicate those games in which the SU and ATS result differed.

• Washington 9 at Minnesota Vikings 2½
New York Giants 26 at Detroit Lions 24½

• Philadelphia Eagles 29 at Buffalo Bills 13. With the Dallas Cowboys on a bye, the pitiable NFC North went 3-0 ATS – not improbably the last time this season this division will rack up three ATS wins in a single week.

• Jacksonville Jaguars 23½ at New York Jets 15
• Tennessee Titans 25, Tampa Bay Buccaneers 22. Since Buffalo was unmasked as frauds last weekend and the AFC North teams are generally inferior … could two AFC South teams make the playoffs?

• Oakland Raiders 24 at Houston Texans 22. Let’s hope that three AFC South teams don’t get to the postseason, because the only way to win ATS with an AFC South team in not to bet.

• New England Patriots 13½, Cleveland Browns 13. Those who bet on Patriots -13½ would like to thank the Browns OL for giving up a sack in the fourth quarter in a situation which might have put Cleveland within “just” two scores and might’ve flipped this result for bettors.

• Atlanta Falcons 20 at Seattle Seahawks 19½. With this win, the Seahawks are 3-1 as visitors ATS and – get this – 0-4 ATS at home. This is one serious outlier, considering that over the past 15 years, the Seahawks rank no. 2 at home ATS overall (and go ahead, take one guess as to who’s no. 1). Mark it down right now: You’ll be taking the Seahawks minus any points at home the rest of the way, relevance of game depending. (For the record, that’s week 9 vs. Tampa Bay, week 13 vs. Minnesota, week16 vs Arizona and week 17 vs San Francisco.

• San Francisco 49ers 46½, Carolina Panthers 13. Yeesh, since when did the 49ers become the Chiefs (except with a frankly awesome defense)? Note: Excepting the anomalous weather-marred Washington game, this team is averaging 33.0 points per game, yet the over in Niners games is 5-2 thus far. Sounds like the over is a good bet down the stretch – if the D doesn’t crush everyone like they did the Panthers…

• Denver Broncos 13 at Indianapolis Colts 9½. Correct NFLbets if we’re wrong, but wasn’t that Joe “6.6 yards per pass attempt” Flacco complaining about not getting a chance to win the game for his Broncos. We don’t say (write?) this often, but … whatever, dude.

• “Los Angeles” Chargers 17 at Chicago Bears 12½. Eddy Piniero did more than help lose the game for Chicago last week, he also delivered a dagger to any holders of “Bears -3½” and “over 41” tickets. There, Piniero, now all those folks hate you, too.

• New Orleans Saints 18½, Arizona Cardinals 9
• Los Angeles Rams 10½, Cincinnati Bengals 10 (UK)
• Green Bay Packers 29 at Kansas City Chiefs 24. These three winners (along with Guess Who) top the ATS standings board at 6-2; quite an impressive feat, considering that all four entered the season as expected playoff teams. Further, the Rams, Packers and Patriots have played as favorites in 21 of the combined 24 games, and the Saints are on a 5-0 ATS run.

• Miami Dolphins 14 at Pittsburgh Steelers 12½. Would you believe that, after the Saints, the Miami Flippin’ Dolphins are the hottest team in the NFL ATS? Three wins in a row and counting…

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