Who will go no. 1 overall in the 2018 NFL Draft? Odds and recommendation

Wednesday, April 4, 2018 3:01 AM

Sexy Cleveland Browns babeWagering on the “Who Will Be Drafted First Overall I the 2018 NFL Draft?” proposition bet would be a helluva lot easier if it weren’t those wacky Cleveland Browns drafting at no. 1 overall.

This should really be a no-brainer – particularly when the same franchise holds both the first and fourth picks in said draft.

But again, we’re talking about the Cleveland Browns, an organization which on Draft Day becomes the incompetent Bizarro versions of their Kevin Costner-led fictional counterparts in the film of the same name. History will probably show that this year’s overall no. 1 was naught but a bust, whereas all the Browns’d have to do to utterly throw the best-laid plans of Giants and Jets into wonderful chaos simply by making the right pick and thus (gasp) improving their team medium- to long-term.

(To be fair, Myles Garrett may well have been the best possible choice for the Browns at no. 1 last year, but it’s difficult to say with certainty after two preseason injuries and an in-season concussion. Perhaps the Browns *are* doomed.)

The current table on the Who Will Be Drafted First Overall in the 2018 NFL Draft looks like so:

RB Saquon Barkley +180
QB Sam Darnold +300
QB Josh Allen +380
QB Baker Mayfield +600
QB Josh Rosen +800
DB Minkah Fitzpatrick +2500
DE Bradley Chubb +3300
The field:  +1600

Now, see, if any other team picks first, there’s no question: The drafting of Todd Gurley and Leonard Fournette in the 2016 and ’17 drafts, respectively, show that a halfback can still be a franchise player despite the general gradual downturn in the very position’s importance in today’s NFL. Normally, NFLbets’d be advising football bettors without hesitation to just hammer Saquon Barkley – the league’s next beastly breakthrough back – but this is the Cleveland Browns we’re talking about.

How much sense would Barkley make at no. 1? Tons. The Giants at no. 2 and Jets at no. 3 could very well be counting on the Browns to simply take the hyped quarterback (and probably the biggest question mark of the marquee names at QB in this draft), Sam Darnold. Current rumor has the Jets thinking they can land Darnold at no. 3 already, so imagine a scenario wherein the Browns take Barkley first and the Giants screw the Jets by bagging Darnold at no. 2. The Browns would probably then have their choice of Allen, Mayfield and Rosen; plus, figuring in the now-flummoxed Jets’ nearly-as-checkered history in drafts, the bust will likely be posing with his green-and-white jersey by the time Cleveland’s up.

But this is the Browns we’re talking about.

After straight-up taking Barkley, perhaps the best move for the Browns would be to trade the no. 1 pick, preferably for two first-rounders this year. The Buffalo Bills hold the no. 12 and 22 picks in this year’s draft and could certainly use a franchise quarterback. Such a deal would likely still net Barkley for Cleveland at no. 4 overall, plus Mike McGlinchy of Notre Dame should still be on the board by no. 12, and he’s probably the only guy in this entire draft capable of filling the now-retired Joe Thomas’s shoes.

But you know the rest. The Browns’ll probably go with Josh Allen at no. 1 overall and somehow completely biff the no. 4 pick by drafting Minkah Fitzpatrick far too high. Then, faster than you can say “Whatever happened to Brady Quinn?”, Allen will have eaten turf 64 times while Mike McGlinchy of the San Francisco 49ers is will into his first all-pro season.

So all things considered, NFLbets recommends betting on Josh Allen at +380 in the first 2018 NFL draft pick prop bet – a pick that seems blah enough to be believable.