Anybody else get washed out on Sunday in week 4? NFLbets will admit that covering the Jacksonville Jaguars, a team that won three games in 2021 and has no winning pedigree whatsoever, was a stretch. But how does Cleveland Browns -1 lose against Cordarrelle Patterson and the no-name Atlanta Falcons? How do the Detroit Lions, favorites for the proverbial first time in forever, give up *48 freakin’ points* to a Seattle Seahawks team that had scored 47 in their first three games combined?
Geez, by the time the second round of Sunday games started and the New England Patriots went up 3-0 at the Green Bay Packers, NFLbets’ confidence was shaken enough to pass on live betting odds of EVEN on Patriots +8½…
But hey, the adroit NFL bettor puts a bad Sunday behind quickly and so we’re doubling down (metaphorically) on
Los Angeles Rams +2 at San Francisco 49ers, over/under 42 points
From the historical/trending perspective, in Sean McVay’s time as head coach, his Rams are 4-6 SU/3-7 ATS against Kyle Shanahan’s Niners. This includes a 2-3 SU/ATS mark in games played in San Francisco, and the Rams current “run” of 0-6 SU/ATS in regular-season games against their division rivals.
The last game between these two came in the NFC Championship, with the Rams winning SU, 20-17, but losing ATS as 3½-point favorites. For some reason, however, the San Francisco 49ers official website wants to spotlight was the week 18 regular-season match, in which the Niners squeaked out a 20-17 OT win.
Why? Because of Colton McKivitz.
Who’s that? He’ll be the guy replacing injured LT Trent Williams this week, and did so likewise in that 17th regular-season game of 2021 against the Rams.
For example, Shanahan told media that, in the 2021 Rams game, McKivitz “went out there and he performed. It was a huge challenge going against those two edge players they had, and he just battles all game. Whether he gets beat or not, he's going to be there every play and that always gives you a chance.”
While the 49ers won the game, McKiviitz was seemingly spending more time getting beat than not, with five tackles for a loss to San Francisco coming from that left side, plus six quarterback hits and two interceptions thrown. At least 49ers run-game coordinator Chris Foerster is a bit more realistic:
“When he played in that last game of the season […] he got beat with two minutes left in the game. That was the last time anybody got near the quarterback on him.”
All right, then.
Seriously, can an upset loss be pinned on the absence of one player? Maybe, maybe not. But Trent Williams isn’t just any player, and the Rams defense isn’t just any defense (even without Dante Fowler and Von Miller). If you believe these teams are fairly equal of quality – not to mention the bottoming-out of Jimmy Garoppolo, which to sportsbooks is apparently worth 1½ points usually afforded to the home team – you’ve got to go with the Rams. This may be a nadir for the 2022 San Francisco 49ers and McVey’s best chance to snap an ugly losing streak. Take the L.A. Rams +2 at San Francisco.
– written by Os Davis
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