There are times when the Belichick philosophy comes in handy for NFL bettors. Like after a week 1 when your My Bookie Super Contestcard goes 0-4-1 and only then because you got the SU-winning/ATS-losing Tennessee Titans at -3 instead of at -2½. So as The Dark Lord says, “We’re on to week 2.”
Pick of the week: Kansas City Chiefs +8½ at “Los Angeles” Chargers. Look, you watched the NFL kickoff game on Thursday Night Football. You saw how scoreboard-spinningly efficient this Kansas City offense is – it was like week 22 of the 2019 season out there, for Lombardi’s sake. Do you believe the Chargers, who needed 47½ minutes to score a touchdown against the Bengals in week 1, can keep pace with Mahomes & Co.? Of course you don’t.
Cincinnati Bengals +6 at Cleveland Browns. Can you say “backlash”? Sure, the Ravens, current favorite to win the Super Bowl, were the ones smoking the Browns 38-6 last week – but the truth is that the Browns got smoked so hard the bandwagon jackknifed on the highway and spilled all occupants. And why wouldn’t Joe Burrow’s first NFL win come over the Cleveland Browns?
Los Angeles Rams pick ’em at Philadelphia Eagles. The Eagles may have unwittingly handed over the keys for more than a temporary spell to the NFC East in the second half of their game against Washington FT; across the board, Philly looked outguessed, outcoached and outclassed. The offense, incidentally, has scored 17 points or fewer in three of the last four games. On top of this, consider that Sean McVay’s Rams are 6-1 SU/ATS in the Eastern Time Zone. Unfortunately, Money Line (ML) bets are off at My Bookie for this game, but a -105 payout on the current line of Rams -1 is a fine deal.
Buffalo Bills -6 at Miami Dolphins. Talking heads like to temper overreaction to week 1 results with “It’s just one week.” Except it’s not just one week. It’s week 1, after which we have far more information about all these teams than going into week 1, at which point we had, likesay, zero information – perhaps even less than zero in 2020. Week 1 certainly reinforced to those paying attention the prospects of the Buffalo Bills’ playoff bid. Against what looks like a top-3 defense, the Dolphins meanwhile bring, um, fans and Ryan Fitzpatrick, who still hasn’t figured out how to brain the ball to his receivers.
Carolina Panthers +8½ at Tampa Bay Buccaneers. After what we saw from “Tompa Bay” last week, 8½ points is seriously way too much to be giving a team that went for 30 last week. In proactive response to (completely justifiable) argument that the Panthers’ opposition was the Las Vegas Raiders, who in 2019 were 31st overall in defensive DVOA, go ahead and guess what team placed 32nd in that category. Hint: The initials are T.B.
Substitute pick: In case you missed getting in a card before the Thursday Night Football game or you simply don’t like one of our picks, we’d also suggest Green Bay -6½ vs the Detroit Lions. Matt Patricia’s Lions stayed true to form in week 1; Patricia is now 9-23-1 SU/15-18 ATS as Detroit head coach, and little evidence suggests that the 2020 Lions are any better than a 5-11 team, even with Matt Stafford at 100%. Interestingly enough, Patricia's Lions are 4-0 ATS against Green Bay, but come on now...
–written by Os Davis
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