Proposition bets (a.k.a. “prop bets” or even more simply “props”) are those bets which do not depend directly upon the score or outcome of a given game. In other words, essentially any line on which a bettor may wager other than pointspread bet, money line (ML) bet or an over/under.
Admittedly, prop bets make betting on NFL games and following the league throughout the season well more fun. Seriously, who’s into a week 14 Detroit Lions versus Denver Broncos game without some money on ridiculous props?
And therein lies the danger of proposition betting. Far too many variables are involved in props, enough so that anyone other than true league insiders can truly provide insight – and even they are slaves to random chance. The truth is that the more arcane the prop, the more the betting resembles straight-up gambling.
So why do people wager on prop bets? Well, for fun of course! And if you’re willing to take that fun to the next level, then by all means. The sheer volume of prop bets available to bettors makes it easy to find unique, amusing and potentially lucrative wagers.
Just as in statistics, two types of proposition bets exist: Team props and player props.
Team props are relatively limited in amount of offerings at the sportsbook but tend to appeal more to the bettor on a week-to-week basis. Examples include (but are not limited to):
total number of points scored;
margin of victory;
points scored in a given quarter, etc.
Player props are those bets involving individual players’ results; most lines in player prop bets are expressed in the over/under format. The larger sportsbooks online and in “real life” will offer dozens of such player props on each game during the regular season and literally hundreds on the Super Bowl. Examples of player-centric prop bets may include:
over/under number of yards, touchdowns, interceptions, interceptions thrown – essentially any quantifiable statistic appropriate to the given player’s position;
yes/no bets, e.g. “Will Player X score a touchdown?”; and
head-to-head matchups against any player (who might even be playing in another game), some of which even include spread betting.
Note that some sportsbooks may make fewer player props available than others. For the Super Bowl, all sportsbooks offer zillions of these props as untold cash is wagered on player props based in performance and culminating in one of the most popular prop bets in any sport, “To Win Super Bowl MVP”…
As more Americans gain access to NFL betting online, more are discovering the fun of NFL proposition betting. Prop bets increase the viability of betting on NFL games and following the league throughout the season. After all, only homers and true football addicts would care about a week 14 Detroit Lions versus New York Giants game. But hey, throw a few dollars at “Saquon Barkley over 85 rushing yards” and suddenly a dud of an NFL game gets well more interesting.
What does “prop bet” mean?
Proposition bets, also known as “prop bets” or “props” are all those bets which do not depend directly upon the score or win/loss result of a single game. In most sports betting, prop bets are essentially any wagers on a game which are not pointspread bets, money line (ML) bets or over/unders.
NFL prop bets are unique in the depth of offerings even during the regular season. Virtually every individual or team statistic will have some kind of line, over/under and/or a range of numbers on which to hit. Examples follow, with each one of two types: NFL player props or NFL team props.
NFL team props are, naturally, those which involve one or both teams’ performance at some point in the game. These run from the simple (e.g. “Total Number of Points Scored by Team X”) to those dependent on several events happening within the game (e.g. “Both Teams Score in Every Quarter”, “Both Teams Score a Touchdown in Both Halves”).
NFL player props are those bets involving individual players’ results; most lines in player prop bets are expressed in the over/under format. The larger sportsbooks will offer dozens of such NFL player props on each game during the regular season and literally hundreds on the Super Bowl.
In short, nearly any official statistic tabulated by the NFL is potential for a proposition bet offering and is purely dependent on the given sportsbook.
Examples of NFL player prop bets that should be easily found for any regular season games include (but in no way are limited to):
• Over/under Player X Touchdowns
• Over/under Player X Pass Completions/Passing TDs/Passing Yards
• Over/under Player X Receiving Yards/Receptions
• Over/under Player X Rushing Yards/Carries
• Will Player X score a touchdown?
• Head-to-head matchups: Player X vs Player Y in some statistical category.
Typical examples of NFL team props in regular-season games include:
• Margin of Victory by Team X, Team Y, or either
• Total number of points in one half/one quarter by Team X
• First Team to Score
• First Team to Score, How Scored, (e.g. Team X scores first with a FG/TD/safety)
and much more.
Essentially any sportsbook online or off- offers some NFL team props and player props on every game during the regular season, and these increase everywhere during the playoffs, all the way to the NFL propaganza known as the Super Bowl.
Some sportsbooks make fewer player props available than others especially during the regular season, but every decent sportsbook online or off- should increase their offerings during the playoffs. The number of NFL prop bet offerings seems purely based on market size, i.e. if a smaller sportsbook doesn’t get enough/any bets on certain props, why go through the effort of oddsmaking and posting?
When NFL prop bets are posted is, again, dependent on the given sportsbook. No sportsbook of any sort will post *all* possible player props until a few days before kickoff, as teams determine whether certain players will be too injured to go.
In short, though, the NFL bettor may count on lines for NFL prop bets to be posted from Monday through to Saturday (before Sunday games).
The short answer: Carefully. With that in mind, we’d offer the following further tips:
• Manage Your Bankroll. It’s all about the bankroll, and the NFL bettor should always remember that success on props is far harder than on traditional point spread/money line betting. Be sure to avoid betting more on an individual prop than you would on the game outcome itself.
• Track the Lines. If you’re really into props or believe you’re onto to some key information, watch the lines offered on these props. Not extremely often will these lines move very much – except during the Super Bowl and for occasional playoff games – but if/when one does, jump on that prop.
• Bet at Reputable Sportsbooks. Not only do good sportsbooks online have multiple deposit methods, dependable payouts, great customer service, etc., they also tend to offer the best lines on a consistent basis. All the better to increase your payouts on prop betting…
At NFLbets, we believe the best NFL prop bets are the team props. The primary problem in prop bets – and thus the difficulty of making them lucrative – is all about the numerous random variables involved in player props.
What do we mean? Take a simple example: The Green Bay Packers, favored by just 3 over the Pittsburgh Steelers, lose starting QB Bart Starr in the first quarter when LB Jack Lambert delivers a brutal sack to knock him out of the game. Bang goes any Starr-related play prop, but say first the Green Bay defense rallies around the loss of Starr and shuts down Terry Bradshaw’s passing game. It’s a 10-10 tie at half and all sorts of team props involving the under have scored, and half the game remains to be played for other bets to come in.
By contrast, ardent fantasy football enthusiasts who have studied in-depth the player-vs-player matchups in given week may prefer player props. NFL player props are also a particularly good way for fans to bet on their favorite players without taking the additional pain of a betting loss to go with a team loss.
Like the game itself, Super Bowl prop bets are bigger, better and more popular than those of probably all NFL regular-season games combined. In terms of player props, a line may be found on virtually every “skill player” on both teams right down the sixth WR averaging 0.9 receptions per game during the season. For team props, each team in every quarter, every half and winning the coin toss are included.
Among the oddest and most irresistible are the “Cross-Sport Props” that only emerge around Super Bowl time. These Super Bowl props are awesome opportunities such as “Number of Points Scored by the Kansas City Chiefs +4 vs Lebron James Total Points+Assists+Rebounds vs the Knicks.” Seriously, what else are you going to do for 8-12 hours while waiting for the Super Bowl? Watch the Lakers game! The other great thing about these props is that different offerings may be had at literally every sportsbook outlet.
And while the media loves the proposition bet oddities like “Will the Coin Flip Land Heads or Tails?” and “What Color Gatorade will be Poured over the Winning Team’s Head Coach?”, the Super Bowl is also the basis for *the* most popular proposition bet of the year, any sport: “To Be Named Super Bowl MVP.”
Prop bets tend to pay more lucratively than the traditional NFL bets – though, again, this is primarily because winning is trickier on these wagers. And payouts on some proposition bets, such as an unheralded player scoring twice, the first score of the game being a safety, and Super Bowl MVP, can make up for a lot of losses really quickly.
You can, but extreme caution is advised. The potential payout on most prop parlays is rarely even remotely close to worth the risk.
Not so long ago, parlaying NFL props wasn’t offered apparently for bookmakers’ fears that some huge payouts might be made. Today, bigger sportsbooks allow NFL prop parlays, having apparently deduced that this attractive offering could easily become more lucrative (for them). Far too many variables are involved in props, enough so that anyone other than true league insiders can truly provide insight – and even they are slaves to random chance. The truth is that the more arcane the prop, the more the betting resembles straight-up gambling.
Again, know your risks. Weigh the pros and cons of parlaying NFL props in a given week, and make this kind of bet sparingly. These is some serious high risk/decent reward betting.
Well, the “prop” is short for “proposition”, of course, and this is presumably as in the old-timey expression “I’ve got a proposition for you.” In other games which were standardized long before NFL betting existed, such as roulette, included this sort of bet but referred to the wager as a “side bet” or even “novelty bet.” So in sports betting … you know, we have no idea…
Proposition bets’ randomness is perhaps the most important reason that prop bets should be left for the season’s later dates. These bets are not ideal for early-season wagers because there are too many variables left out of the equation. It’s true that mid-season games, even the most meaningless ones, are much more predictable than those early contests.
This is particularly true because a large amount of the season’s matchups have already been played. This means that the home team’s record, injuries and the like have already been taken into account. It’s also true that, because the season has advanced, the team’s record more accurately reflects their true ability. While this does make for more accurate point spreads, it also makes for less accurate props.
Proposition bets are not to be taken lightly. It’s easy to get carried away with the “fun” aspect of these bets and to treat them as if they were just another method of predicting the outcome of a game. However, this is simply not the case.
Proposition bets are too random, too dependent upon factors which are completely out of the control of the team in question. While that makes for an interesting betting experience, it also makes for a risky one.
Proposition bets are fun and make for a good way to spend an afternoon watching a game. They’re a great way to show off at a sports bar or just a great way to make it through tough games. However, as with any other type of wagering, it’s important to wager on proposition bets responsibly.
The easy way to do so is to avoid these bets whenever the weather is bad, or when a team is already down by a significant margin. It’s also important to stay away from prop bets in the first quarter of a game, when a team is still trying to settle into a rhythm.
If you’re looking for a fun wager, consider a few prop bets, but don’t get carried away. It’s easy to do so and it’s easy to lose a lot of money, even if you’re betting responsibly.
This is the easiest prop bet to make and the most difficult to lose. The only question is how long it will take for the Denver Broncos and the Carolina Panthers to score points against each other? The two teams are the top scoring offenses in the NFL this season and both have been led by high-powered offenses all season long.
That’s good news for the Panthers, who come into this contest with the far better defense. It’ll be up to Carolina’s D-line to get after Peyton Manning and force him to make mistakes. We’re not sure that the Panthers have the talent to do that, but we’re not sure that the Broncos have the ability to hang with Carolina for 60 minutes either.
This might be the easiest bet of the season. Adrian Peterson is the best running back in the NFL and if he has a great game, he’ll eclipse this rushing yardage total.
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