NFL Football Picks are one of the most popular types of sports wagers in the world. Bettors enjoy betting on NFL games because the outcomes are usually easier to predict than some of the other major sports. NFL games usually have a narrower range of potential outcomes, which means that there is less guesswork and analysis involved in making picks.
Many people make a living betting on NFL games, so it is important to do your homework if you want to be successful. There are a number of different factors to consider when making your picks, including the strength of the teams involved, the current form of the teams, the odds, and the weather.
NFLBets provides expert analysis and tips on the NFL, including game previews, odds comparisons, and free picks.
No matter what you call it – Pick of the Week, Lock of the Week, Best Bet, etc., a regular column delineating the one must-bet wager weekly is a staple of any NFL prognosticator in any medium. On this page we present only the cream of the crop, *the* bet you’ll want to make in a given week. In addition, we promise complete transparency: We’ll leave up our past picks, win, lose or push so you can judge for yourself whether or not to take NFLbets’ advice (but we think you will).
As we’ve stated elsewhere, a primary rule within the NFLbets dogma is this: Don’t force your bets. There is absolutely no requirement to make a minimum number of wagers weekly. Heck, the ideal situation would be to throw down as much money as possible on those three to five occasions in any given NFL season when the outcome is crystal-clear obvious days beforehand. But where’s the fun in that? After all, one or two bets are always worth making.
NFLbets’ “Pick of the week” is primarily for the conservative NFL bettor, because the truth is that in gambling, conservatism is the way to go. We stake our reputation on our best bets, so let’s enjoy making some money this year!
There is no one definitive answer to this question, as there are a number of different factors that can affect the outcome of an NFL game. However, if you want to give yourself the best chance of making a profit, then you should consider all of the following:
1. Look at the strength of the teams involved
One of the most important things to look at when making NFL picks is the strength of the two teams involved. You can usually get a good idea of how strong each team is by looking at their record, their recent form, and the odds.
2. Check the odds
The odds are another important factor to consider when making picks. Not all games are created equal, and some games offer better value than others. It is important to find games where the odds are in your favour, as this will give you a better chance of making a profit.
3. Consider the weather
The weather can have a big impact on NFL games, so it is important to consider this when making your picks. If it is raining or snowing, for example, then the team with the better defense is likely to have the advantage.
4. Look at the recent form of the teams
The form of the teams is also important to consider. The team that is on a winning streak is usually more likely to continue that streak, while the team that is on a losing streak is likely to lose again.
5. Do your homework
Finally, the best way to improve your chances of making winning NFL picks is to do your homework. Read as much as you can about the teams involved, the players, and the latest news and trends. This will give you a better understanding of the game and will help you make more informed decisions.
There is no definitive answer to this question, as different bettors will have different opinions on the best way to make picks. However, it is generally advisable to take a conservative approach when betting on NFL games, and to avoid taking too many risks.
There are a number of different websites and services that offer NFL picks, so it is important to do your research before choosing a provider. It is also important to remember that no one is ever 100% accurate when it comes to predicting the outcomes of NFL games, so always gamble responsibly.
NFL picks are a prediction of the outcome of a game. The pick is usually expressed as a point spread, which is the margin of victory that the favored team is expected to win by. For example, the Patriots might be favored by 7 points over the Jets. This means that the Patriots are expected to win by 7 points or more, and that the Jets would need to win by more than 7 points in order to cover the spread and win the bet.
The underdog is given a point spread as well, which is the margin of victory that the underdog is expected to lose by. For example, the Chargers might be favored by 3 points over the Raiders. This means that the Chargers are expected to win by 3 points or more, and that the Raiders would need to win by more than 3 points in order to cover the spread and win the bet.
There is also a moneyline, which is a simpler way to express the odds of a game. The moneyline is just the odds of a team winning the game, with no point spread involved. For example, the Patriots might be -260 on the moneyline, which means that you would have to bet $260 to win $100. The Raiders might be +200 on the moneyline, which means that you would win $200 for every $100 you bet.
NFLBets provides expert picks and analysis for the NFL, including moneylines, point spreads, and over/unders.
We would like to say that all the best in football picks are right here at NFLbets.com, especially the very clever entries in the blog section of the site – but the truth is that those consistently winning professional sports bettors aren’t giving out information.
As for the experts, i.e. those who have played, coached, or spent wide swathes of their life analyzing/writing up the game, well, nobody’s close to perfect. Who can honestly recall any season in which any of the talking heads of NFL pregame shows went better than, likesay, 65%. And those guys are usually only picking three to five games a week!
So we don’t know if any one source can be considered the best at NFL picks; we’d advise either finding a football betting writer who usually agrees with you 100% of the time or 0% of the time – either way, we hope it’s NFLbets…
Even the best NFL bettors and foremost experts have cold streaks when picking NFL games. Each NFL season has a unique feel with ups, downs and of course the unexpected mid-game injuries which can immediately flip an entire team’s fate. No one should be expected to do much better than 60% and anyone who advertises themselves as landing more than 60% of their picks is kidding themselves and/or you.
However, take heart: If placing bets with an average line of -110 or better, a success rate of “just” 55.5%, i.e. winning bets at a ratio of 5:4, is enough to turn a profit. Why mess with charlatans who brag about obviously false 75% win rates when you can reference a site like NFLbets, which easily does better than that?
Homefield advantage has been steadily decreasing. Whereas in the 1990s and 2000s, the home team could be counted on to win between 56% and 64% of games (depending on season), this trend has been slowly evaporating in the NFL.
By 2019, all home teams combined to go just 132-123-1 straight up in regular season games (and, for the record, 120-126-10 against the spread); in 2021, homers were an incredibly similar 141-131 SU (130-142 ATS). These numbers represent a shocking 273-253-1 mark for a winning percentage of just .518, or an “advantage” of one win per two weeks.
The conclusion, then: Picking the home team in the NFL is no longer an easily-won wager.
As stated previously, homefield advantage is disappearing in the NFL, along with a lot of other previously-held notions about the game. The best advice we’d offer is to consider the trends, which comes of two sorts: One intrinsic to the nature of the game or to the specific players/teams involved, and the other which is based on factors of luck and is set to be snapped. The trick, of course, is deciding which is which…
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