This Week's Best NFL Bets

AFC Conference Championship Betting: Derrick Henry, +7½ may be too much…

Thursday, 16 January 2020 16:21 EST

Welcome to the 2020 AFC Championship Game, an NFL bettor’s nightmare thanks to the surprise presence of Tennessee Titans and Derrick Henry, the scariest unstoppable force at RB since Bo Jackson was stomping dudes. Using numbers alone, the visitors should be getting even more points in the line…

Tennessee Titans +7½ at Kansas City Chiefs, over/under 53½ points

I mean, we’re talking the 2019 Kansas City Chiefs here, right? The Chiefs are on a 7-0 SU (6-0-1 ATS) run Including the insanity that was the Chiefs’ 51-31 win over the Texans in the divisional which incidentally has Kansas City on a 51-7 run going into this week.

Characterizing the Chiefs defense as the team’s weak point is well-mentioned enough to have become cliché, but isn’t quite100% accurate. True that in the regular season, the K.C. D surrendered 32.5 points points per game against playoff teams – including the 35-32 loss to the Titans in week 10 – but so what? The Chiefs went 4-2 SU/ATS in those games. A look at Football Outsiders’ DVOA metric should be enough to scare most NFL bettors away from taking the Chiefs minus the points: 14th overall, 6th against the pass and … 29th against the run.

And here comes Derrick “Bad” Henry.

All Bad Henry did in that week 10 matchup in Nashville was go for 2 TDs on 23 carries for 188 yards: about *8.2 yards per carry*. Remove his 68-yard breakaway and Henry was still good for 5.5 ypg against a flummoxed Chiefs front. Geez, the Baltimore Ravens were stacking the box with eight and he still tore ’em up for 195 yards on 30 totes. Henry’s performance in this game is the X-factor, the Y-factor and the rest of the alphabet-factor.

And that’s where the numbers break down. The Titans are rolling on intangibles, willpower and a QB who’s somehow 6-0 SU/ATS when he throws for less than 200 yards in the game – including, yes, the week 10 game. Further, Ryan Tannenhill and Tennessee went for less than 90 total passing yards in playoff wins against the defending champion New England Patriots and no. 1 seed 14-2 Ravens. For the entirety of 2019-20, starting QBs with 90 or fewer passing yards were 4-12 SU (though 7-9 ATS) – and one of those wins was by the Ravens in a week 17 throwaway; the other was by the Arizona Cardinals against the New York Jets. So, yeah.

The truth is, we may have to go off numbers on this one. Rarely has NFLbets enjoyed losing bets on a game as much this season as when watching the Titans handle the Ravens last week. (Whoa, was the Texans-Chiefs game brutal for those crazy enough to cover Houston in any capacity…) Mike Vrabel designed quite frankly kickass game plans and hopefully did not literally have to perform any sort of phallic mutilation to do so. The Titans OL ranks no. 4 in run blocking DVOA, and they’re certain to push around their Kansas City counterparts for Henry again.

Finally, NFLbets could just write off Henry’s recent unprecedented run – in the last three games, 32 carries for 196.0 yards per plus four touchdowns – as an outlier on borrowed time. But frankly, we’re scared of the man. We’re going to take the Tennessee Titans +7½ at Kansas City. And with the weather expected to be in the 20s but no precipitation, we’ll say take the over on an O/U of 53½ points.

(For those of you into betting longshots, NFLbets will likely throw a few moneys at the Titans ML at a nice +255, but we won’t call that a proper “Best Bet.”)

NFLbets’ Picks of the Week last week: 0-6.
NFLbets this season, all recommended bets: 65-50-1.

–written by Os Davis

Only two more chances to bet NFL football this season – so to get an exclusive match bonus in time for the Super Bowl through NFLbets when signing up at MyBookie.com; enter promo code NFLBETS when depositing to get up to $1,000 in free bets!

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NFC Conference Championship betting: How good are the 49ers? How magic is Rodgers?

Wednesday, 15 January 2020 14:37 EST

Well, guess that had to happen. After enjoying a sweet 7-0 wildcard round, NFLbets’ so-called Best Bets for the Divisionals went a solid 0-6 – we’re still +30 Moneys, though! And it says here that, in NFL betting (especially NFL playoffs betting), winning money is better than losing money.

So damn straight, NFLbets is getting back on the horse. What are we supposed to do, *not* bet? For betting on the 2020 NFC Conference Championship games, we’re going with:

Green Bay Packers +7½ at San Francisco 49ers, over 45½ points

Last week’s NFC divisional round games showed us more of the same from the winning sides: The San Francisco 49ers looked good in all areas of the game despite the requisite Jimmy Garoppolo giveaway early on, while the Green Bay Packers deployed that smoke and mirrors (smokes and mirrors?) to eke out another one. Based on the football alone, you’d have to be thinking 49ers -7½, so we’re looking for chinks in the armor here…

The other bet that hurriedly looks good ‘n’ lucrative is the under-45½. The Packers averaged 20.0 points per game in the eight games after the win over Matt Moore’s Kansas City Chiefs; the 28-23 win over the Seattle Seahawks in which Green Bay nearly choked away a 21-3 lead brought up the team’s 9-game average to exactly 21.0.

Meanwhile, the 49ers defense, which was beginning to give up points a bit too generously after clamping down on Lamar Jackson and the Baltimore Ravens in week 13, went off on the Minnesota Vikings. Say what you will about a short week and, you know, Kirk Cousins at quarterback, 7 first downs allowed and no TDs scored in the game’s final 50 minutes is pretty impressive – and Kyle Shanahan will certainly be just fine if all Aaron Rodgers manages to produce in this game is a single 41-yard TD strike.

On the other hand, with Dee Ford and the injury-bugged Kentavious Street both listed as “questionable”, the Niners’ pass rush will definitely lose an edge (so to speak).

In terms of history, we can make no generalizations about rookie head coach Matt LaFleur or LaFluer & Rodgers but at 11-5-1, the insurance boy himself is pretty impressive ATS. In addition, Rodgers’s Packers are on a 6-1 ATS run despite a 4-3 SU mark in those games. Shanahan Junior and Jimmy G are likewise inexperienced, unless you want to count Jimmy G.’s mojo in going 7-1 SU (6-2 ATS) while on the bench for the New England Patriots in the playoffs.

So how much longer can the Rodgers magic last, particularly since this 49ers defense is outstanding. Aaron Jones, who had been eating teams alive in the second half of the season, indeed scored his two TDs against the Seahawks, but beyond a 23-yard breakaway, managed just 39 yards on 20 carries. Recall, too, that Jones was held to just 38 yards on 13 carries in San Francisco’s 37-8 thumping in week 12 in Santa Clara.

Jones’s performance in that game was no fluke, and only slightly flukier was Rodgers’s sub-100 yard, 5-sack showing: The 49ers enter this game with the league’s no. 2 overall defense and no.. 2 pass defense per Football Outsiders’ DVOA metric. Interpret Rodgers’s lifetime marks however you like – Just to make it trickier, consider that since winning the Super Bowl, Rodgers and his Packers have been a subpar 6-6 SU and just 2-4 as visitors – these 49ers just look really fucking good.

Take the San Francisco 49ers -7½ vs Green Bay. And since the over is still just 2-6 in the playoffs thus far, we’re also saying take the over on an O/U of 45½ points.

NFLbets’ Picks of the Week last week: 0-6.
NFLbets this season, all recommended bets: 65-50-1.

–written by Os Davis

Only two more chances to bet NFL football this season – so to get an exclusive match bonus in time for the Super Bowl through NFLbets when signing up at MyBookie.com; enter promo code NFLBETS when depositing to get up to $1,000 in free bets!

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Read the XBET Preview on this game: here

Picks of the Week: Considering two underdogs in Sunday’s divisional playoffs

Thursday, 09 January 2020 11:11 EST

Whoops, they did it again! As noted yesterday here at NFLbets, since 2010, favorites of 9½ or more points in the NFL playoffs are 5-1 SU/ATS – with the sole win coming back in 2011 as Rex Ryan’s New York Jets won their Super Bowl against the New England Patriots in the divisional round. The line in Sunday’s AFC divisional round game has gone from Texans +9 at opening to Texans +9½, thereby increasing the level of difficulty in betting that game.

Also note that NFLbets caught Saturday’s AFC divisional at Baltimore Ravens -9 versus Tennessee, but that line is now up to Ravens -9½ as well. We’re feeling some regression to the mean is impending, but where…? Perhaps we’ll find hope in analyzing the bets for…

Houston Texans +9½ at Kansas City Chiefs, over/under 51 points

Not to be dogmatic, but since the preseason kicked off, NFLbets has figured the Kansas City Chiefs would make the playoffs and that the subsequent run would be all about Andy Reid. We still believe this is the case, what with the strangely unpredictable yet somehow utterly predictable Houston Texans coming to town.

Reid’s CV reads in part as follows.

• Overall record, regular season: 207-128-1 SU (181-148-7 ATS)
• Overall record, regular season with Kansas City: 77-35 SU (63-46-3 ATS)
• Overall record, playoffs: 12-14 SU (13-13 ATS)
• Overall record, playoffs with Kansas City: 2-5 SU/ATS
• Overall record, playoffs divisional round with bye: 4-1 SU (3-2 ATS)
• Overall record, all games after bye week with Kansas City: 6-2 SU/ATS

The numbers with smaller sample size are naturally simultaneously the most compelling and completely contradictory. Maybe precedent should be thrown away here; after all, the Patrick Mahomes-fueled Kanasas City Chiefs are like no other team, and back-to-back 31-point showings in last year’s playoffs are certainly nothing to scoff at. This is a top-10 offense in essentially all major statistical categories.

And by the way, has anyone noticed how Steve Spagnuolo completely created a defense from dregs? Last year, this unit was no. 31 or 32 in virtually every defensive sphere. This year, the Chiefs are best in the league in – no, really, NFLbets didn’t believe it, either – passing yards and rushing yards allowed. A weak-ish schedule got the KC D ranking just 14th in Football Outsiders’ DVOA metric but still 6th against the pass, where the bulk of a Texans attack would occur.

When the Texans handed the Chiefs a 31-24 loss in week 6, the Texans offense ran up 472 yards on the Chiefs, the most this defense surrendered in a game all season. In fact, in the four other games in which opponents ran up 400 yards or more on Kansas City, the Chiefs went 4-0 SU – and they’re 8-2 SU (7-3 ATS) since the Houston loss.

Assuming that some classic clock mismanagement from Reid doesn’t hand Deshaun Watson a plum opportunity late in the game, the Texans simply must find a way to move the ball against this solid defense – and they’re probably catching the Chiefs at a bad time. In the past eight games, the Houston offense has been held to 301 yards or fewer four times.

This week, Watson will be playing with his full contingent of receivers, with Will Fuller and Kenny Stills expected to join DeAndre Hopkins on the filed this week. Watson & Co. managed to pull out the W without the field-stretching Fuller out there. The Texans are now 3-3 SU/ATS with Fuller out of the lineup on the season, but certainly they’d rather have him playing, as they’ve gone 8-3 with Fuller in the lineup and 6-1 when he has five or more receptions.

And while the talking heads will be playing up the J.J. Watt vs Mahomes angle, we’re thinking the bets are all about DeShaun and the Texans offense. The question remains: Can Houston essentially play their best offensive game all season just to keep pace? We say they can, especially if snow falls for game time. (Currently snow is expected for Saturday but is just 20% likely for Sunday.) Holding off on an over/under bet until that precipitation report comes in, NFLbets says take the Houston Texans +9½ at Kansas City – seriously, that’s way too high a line, isn’t it?

Seattle Seahawks +4 at Green Bay Packers, over/under 47 points

Right, NFLbets is just coming right out with it: Take the Seattle Seahawks ML of +155 at Green Bay. The truth is we haven’t trusted the Packers all season, and we’re not sure why: They went a solid enough 10-6 ATS and a decent 3-2 SU/ATS against playoff teams (though two wins came against the Minnesota Vikings and the third against Mahomes-less Kansas City).

Meanwhile, the Seahawks have been gritting it out all year. Russell Wilson’s propensity to spin away and survive endless pass rushes coming through an inferior OL makes a metaphor for the entire Seahawks team which is 10-2 SU (though just 6-5-1 ATS) in games decided by 8 points or fewer. The DVOA metric ranks the ’Hawks offense at no. 5 – this despite facing the league’s 3rd-toughest schedule.

What makes betting this game especially maddening, however, is the insanity surrounding homefield advantage in 2019 and Pete Carroll’s entire freaking playoff history. This year home teams went 109-132-1 SU and 104-137-9 ATS. Most typical of this trend was Seattle, who went 7-1 SU (5-2-1 ATS) in away games and 4-4 SU (2-6 ATS) at home. Even more ridiculous is Carroll’s playoff record. Not including the two Super Bowls, the Seahawks coach has gone an impressive 9-5 SU (8-6 ATS) – but he’s 6-0 SU (4-2 ATS) in home playoff games!

Clearly these sorts of numbers are twisting bookmakers’ heads, too, and thus a line which essentially gives Green Bay the traditional homefield edge plus a token ½-point to draw in Seahawks backers. We ain’t buying it. And with all the credit Belichick & Brady and Payton & Brees got for Playoff Experience in the lines last week, we’re wondering why the league’s proven second-best combo of Carroll & Wilson doesn’t get more respect – particularly against a rookie head coach in his first playoff game. Come on, now. Take the Seattle Seahawks +4 at Green Bay as a hedge to the money line bet.

NFLbets’ Picks of the Week last week: 7-0.
NFLbets this season, all recommended bets: 65-44-1.

–written by Os Davis

If you’re betting NFL playoff football, be sure to get an exclusive match bonus through NFLbets when signing up at MyBookie.com; enter promo code NFLBETS when depositing to get up to $1,000 in free bets!

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Picks of the week: Very revealing stats for Saturday’s divisional round playoff games

Wednesday, 08 January 2020 13:42 EST

All right, now this is NFL playoffs betting – four games, do or die, all or nothing, time to leave everything – including all the clichés you can muster – on the field! Of course, winning bets will perk up anyone’s interest in the NFL playoffs but for the football bettor, this is pure holiday season.

And o wow, did NFLbets turn up some killer interesting stats to help us make this year’s divisional round nicely lucrative. First off are some outlier numbers from last week’s results, including:

• All four unders hit, and the NFC no. 6 seeded Minnesota Vikings were the highest-scoring team with 26 points. With dudes like Lamar Jackson, Patrick Mahomes and Jimmy Garoppolo taking the field this weekend, one hardly needs more incentive to bet lotsa overs this week,

• Away teams were 3-1 SU/ATS – and the only loss was by the Buffalo Bills (ATS by ½-point), who were not only the vogue pick to upset in this year’s wildcard round but also managed to run up a 16-0 lead on the perpetually postseason-underperforming Houston Texans. This shouldn’t be too surprising, NFLbets supposes, as home teams went 109-132-1 SU and 104-137-9 ATS in 2019.

• Russell Wilson was the only quarterback to throw for more than 300 yards, and the Tennessee Titans won despite Ryan Tannehill’s 72 passing yards.

• Oddest of all (so to speak) may be NFLbets’ perfect 4-0 record in pointspread betting and 7-0 in all bets last weekend. Yes!

Relevant stats for this weekend’s games include:

• Since 2010, home teams are 30-10 SU – but an even 20-20 ATS – in divisional round games.

• In these 40 games, taking the over has been good for a 25-15 mark. Unders do best at the extreme ends of the scale: In games with a line of under-43 or over-51, the under is 10-6.

• Teams favored by 9½ points or more are 6-1 SU/ATS, with the sole win by Rex Ryan’s New York Jets over the New England Patriots in 2011.

• The big difference-maker for the visiting side? It’s all about the day. In divisional round games on Saturday, the home team is an almost unbelievable 18-2 SU (15-5 ATS) – and a visitor hasn’t won on a divisional Saturday since 2013. This means on Sunday, the chalk may be tossed out the window with home teams just 12-8 SU and an incredible 5-15 ATS over the decade.

Normally NFLbets would look for rather extreme trends like the Saturday advantage or the Sunday ATS disadvantage for home teams – again, especially following the 2019 season in which home field became irrelevant, apparently – but some of these stats are just too compelling.

The Saturday advantage can be figured as a product of higher seeded team’s bye week as well as the short week one team has gotten since the Saturday/Sunday format was implemented; this time around, the Vikings got shortchanged a day. These factors may also explain that 6-1 record SU/ATS by 9½-point favorites as with the inherent advantages, qualitative differences between teams can be magnified.

The reverse is also true: When a playoff team gets back on the 7-day schedule, games get tighter – markedly tighter than bettors would like. Note that the Titans got an *extra* day thanks to the Saturday wildcard game.

So this week, NFLbets is using some reverse logic: For which teams will trends hold? We start the betting chronologically with…

Minnesota Vikings +7 at San Francisco 49ers, over/under 44 points

The Vikings can take pride in a great SU win, though NFLbets was certainly not the only one who reckoned last week’s line of New Orleans Saints -8½ was reasonable. (Sooooooo, Minnesota’s getting fewer points against a better team…? Come on.) New Orleans is a team in decline in the short term. The San Francisco 49ers, by contrast, are not.

On the other hand, the 49ers defense probably isn’t as good as you think and Dalvin Cook may be well-suited to break San Francisco. As it turns out, the Niners opened the season going 8-0 SU (5-3 ATS) and ultimately went 10-1 SU (5-5-1 ATS) against non-playoff teams. In six of their last nine games, the defense allowed 25 points or more, and opponents ran up 100 or more yards on the ground 12 times in 2019. And the San Francisco D’s worst number is in the yards per carry statistic, where they’re bottom-10.

Now can the Vikings score enough points, even if Cook burns, to keep up with the NFL’s no. 2 scoring offense? Since the Great Rejuvenation of Kirk Cousins in week 5, the Vikes are averaging 27.0 points per game but in the last five have managed just 20, 39 (including one TD scored by the defense), 10, 19 and 26 (20 in regular time). We daresay that won’t be enough. Take the San Francisco 49ers -7 vs Minnesota and take the over on an O/U of 44 points.

Tennessee Titans +9 at Baltimore Ravens, over/under 46½ points

The hot take: Damn, this line is too high. After all, the Titans are one of the hottest teams still playing, on a 7-3 SU (6-3-1 ATS) clip since Ryan Tannehill took over as starter. And Derrick Henry has been an absolute beast with 168.4 ypg in the past seven games to go with 11 TDs.

But these Ravens haven’t lost SU since September and are on a 9-1 ATS run in which their *average* result is a 10.4-point win; this run includes West Coast games, late games, games against playoff contenders, AFC teams and NFC teams. Consider playoff experience and whatnot all you wish, but the truth is that the 2019 Baltimore Ravens have been beating everyone worth playing, and sometimes you just have to bet football. Take the Baltimore Ravens -9 vs Tennessee and, yep, take the over on an O/U of 46½ points.

NFLbets’ Picks of the Week last week: 7-0.
NFLbets this season, all recommended bets: 65-44-1.

–written by Os Davis

If you’re betting NFL playoff football, be sure to get an exclusive match bonus through NFLbets when signing up at MyBookie.com; enter promo code NFLBETS when depositing to get up to $1,000 in free bets!

Or get a 100% Signup Deposit Bonus for up to $300 in free betting money at XBET.ag – Use our exclusive promo code XBBETS when you sign up.

Best bet for week 17: Capping the wild ride that was the 2019 Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Friday, 27 December 2019 19:49 EST

From purely a football’s fans perspective, the 2019 Tampa Bay Buccaneers have been right up there with the Baltimore Ravens and the San Francisco 49ers as the NFL’s most exciting teams: No other team is top-3 in points scored and points allowed. From the NFL bettor’s perspective, the Bucs have been unpredictable as their ultra-mercurial QB Jameis Winston himself – but that 15-game tendency might just prove lucrative in week 17 betting.

NFLbets’ Best Bet for week 17, then, involves:

Atlanta Falcons “pick ‘em” at Tampa Bay

That points scored/points allowed stat cited above is just scratching the surface of insane outlier trends surrounding this team in ’19. How about a ranking of dead last in pass attempts allowed and second in pass attempts? And sure, you probably guessed that gunslinging Winston leads the NFL in interceptions, but he’s also tops in passing yardage, no. 3 in passing TDs and no. 6 in yards per attempt. And between the turnovers and well below average special teams play, Tampa Bay gives opponents the second-best average drive-starting spot.

Even more fun, both teams, long since virtually eliminated from playoff contention, are finally heating up. Tampa Bay is on a 4-1 SU (3-0-2 ATS) run, while Atlanta are on a 5-2 SU/ATS run, with three consecutive SU/ATS wins after a 1-point ATS loss to New Orleans in week 14.

Like scoring? The over is an incredible 11-1 in Tampa Bay games; though Atlanta’s scores aren’t quite as impressive, the over is 3-2 in the last five Falcons games and they’re averaging over 27 points per game in the second half of the season. That 11-1 is way too much of an outlier for NFLbets to back the over again – we don’t care how scoreboard-spinning these two teams are.

No, we’re banking instead against another trend even more insane than Tampa Bay’s over/under marks. Namely: The Buccaneers are *winless ATS for the season*. Despite a 3-4 SU mark in Tampa Bay, the Bucs are a wacky 0-5-2 ATS. On this basis alone, we’re ready to recommend that NFL bettors take the Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs Atlanta, but placing money on the homers will make an already exciting game even more engaging. Thanks for the (gambling) memories, Buccaneers!

NFLbets’ Best Bets last week: 0-1.
NFLbets’ Best Bets this season: 17-14.

–written by Os Davis

Make this pick like a cornerback against Jameis Winston and get an exclusive match bonus through NFLbets when signing up at MyBookie.com; enter promo code NFLBETS when depositing to get up to $1,000 in free bets!

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Best bet, NFL week 16: Last MNF of the season, last call for bets!

Thursday, 19 December 2019 16:03 EST

Who else is thrilled to hear the last about the 50th season of Monday Night Football? As though anything more than five years past is ever seriously relevant to the NFL bettor! About the only good MNF has ever done NFLbets and our lot is to give an opportunity to recoup Sunday losses in what has become a more predictable match than the Sunday lineup. I

In fact, NFLbets will lay out the numbers which would appear to indicate that Monday night has ultimately become irrelevant as an X-factor in picking these games – or, rather, for right now, the last MNF game of the 2019 NFL season, namely…

Green Bay Packers +5 at Minnesota Vikings

Historically speaking – or at least as historical as we’re willing to get – the numbers on the 1717 Monday Night Football games since 2010 played to date show the following somewhat frustrating numbers.

• Overall, the home team on MNF is 86-80-5 ATS – though 100-71 SU;
• Home underdogs are 27-32-0; and
• Home favorites are 54-51-5 ATS.

The usual suspects stand out as outliers, of course: The New England Patriots during the 10s went 9-3 SU and 8-3-1 ATS. West Coast teams playing at home against non-West Coast teams are an impressive 12-6-2 ATS. We’ll leave it up to the individual NFL bettor as to whether these are large enough sample sizes, but we’d give these five teams the edge in a Monday night situation.

Sadly, we’ve got two NFC North teams here, and NFLbets is tending to favor the Vikings here against the trending numbers.

Why? We begin with the impetus, as in it’s all on Minnesota. Green Bay’s already clinched a playoff berth, and Packers enjoy the 1-game advantage thanks to the week 2 win over the Vikes – meaning the Vikings not only can clinch a playoff berth with a win on MNF, but they can still wrest away the NFC North lead and more: Having lost to the Seattle Seahawks in week 13, Minnesota probably can’t get the no. 1 overall seed, but a win here puts a bye week and a home game in play for the Purple & Gold.

Plus … do you realize that the Vikings could well be the second-hottest team in the NFL right now? After starting out 2-2 SU/ATS, they’ve since gone 8-2 SU (6-4 ATS) with the losses coming by 7 points or fewer at Kansas City and at Seattle. Minnesota’s also a perfect 6-0 SU at home (though 4-2 ATS) and certainly have got to feel good about closing out 2019 with two home games.

In the week 2 matchup, the Packers got out to a 21-0 first half lead based on a missed field goal, a fumble recovery and an interception. But since week 4 and Kirk Cousins regaining control of his faculties, the Vikings have surrendered just 10 turnovers – we’ll see what Green Bay can do if not gifted the ball four times.

Even better for the Vikings, the Packers run defense has, if anything, fallen off since the week 2 games. Despite ranking just 17th in rushing attempts against, Green Bay is bottom-10 in overall yardage, yards per attempt and rushing TDs against. NFLbets likes the possibilities for Dalvin Cook, who went for 191 total yards and a TD against the Pack last time out.

On top of everything else, we’re highly suspect of Green Bay this season regardless. To date, they’ve played just three games against teams which now have a sub-.500 record: The week 2 game against the Vikings and the limpid version of Cousins; a week 8 squeaker against the Matt Moore-led Chiefs; and the 37-8 beatdown they got in San Francisco in week 12. Seriously, does no one remember Matt LaFleur is a rookie head coach? That this time has managed scores of 10, 11 and 8 in road games this year? That the running game is still makeshift and the only viable option at TE is Jimmy Graham, who’s about 57 years old and has caught 8 catches on 15 targets in the past five games combined?

All in all, NFLbets has to wonder if the Packers are taking Satchel Paige’s life advice at this point in the season, i.e. if they look back, they’ll see the Vikings gaining on ‘em steadily. Green Bay does not want this game this Monday. Take the Minnesota Vikings -5 vs Green Bay.

NFLbets’ Best Bets last week: 1-0.
NFLbets’ Best Bets this season: 17-13.

–written by Os DavisAs Aaron Rodgers himself might say, “Don’t mess with this discount” – get an exclusive match bonus through NFLbets when you sign up at MyBookie.com; enter promo code NFLBETS when depositing to get up to $1,000 in free bets!

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Best bet, NFL week 15: Vikings -3 at Los Angeles Chargers home game; WTF?

Thursday, 12 December 2019 08:19 EST

Just as with last week’s Tennessee Titans-Oakland/Las Vegas Raiders line, NFLbets just doesn’t get

Minnesota Vikings -3 at “Los Angeles” Chargers

So what gives? Is it the East-to-West-Coast thing? The numbers may say that historically the Pacific Time-based home team is an excellent pick, but firstly that advantage always increases with lateness of game in question and secondly Eastern Time teams appear to finally be lessening the advantage. In 18 games played in the Pacific time zone with a 4pm ET, the home team is 6-10-2 ATS while the favorites are – you guessed it – 8-8-2 ATS.

This line can’t be reflective of any homefield advantage on the Chargers’ part, can it? Since moving into the Carson City soccer stadium, they’re a mind-bogglingly bad 3-10-1. Though NFLbets is continually looking for regression to equilibrium, the only thing that can stop NFL bettors from piling it on against the Chargers in L.A. is a hangover.

Is this an indication that the sportsbooks still holding onto the delusion that the Chargers are still working with a well-armed All Pro QB in Phillip Rivers? The sole real quality win this team has enjoyed this season came in week 9 as Green Bay put in their worst effort this season. And Rivers’s stats, like career lows in TD-to-interception ratio and net yards per attempt, just confirm what the eye-test shows.

Is it that would-be bettors were blinded by last week’s 45-point performance into thinking that the Chargers somehow have a viable offense? Hell, that 45 made just the third game this season these guys managed more than 26 points – the other two instances were in week 1 and at Miami in week 4. Recall, too, that last week’s opposition was the Jacksonville Jaguars, who are demoralized to levels last seen when Blake Bortles was quarterbacking.

Despite all the numbers and trends, though, the most inexplicable of all about this Vikings -3 is simply, likesay, football. The Vikings are a solid playoff team, earmarked for postseason play since the midway point. And since week 5, Minnesota is 7-2 SU (5-4 ATS) with the only losses at Kansas City and at Seattle; geez, if Kirk Cousins’s receivers had verbally kicked their QB’s butt a little sooner in the season, the Vikings might be leading the NFC North right now…

The truth is that Minnesota has just one team in the NFL to worry about before the playoffs, the team who can truly call L.A. home: The Rams. Take the Minnesota Vikings -3 at Los Angeles.

NFLbets’ Best Bets last week: 1-0.
NFLbets’ Best Bets this season (ATS): 16-13.

–written by Os Davis

Get an exclusive match bonus through NFLbets when you sign up at MyBookie.com; enter promo code NFLBETS when depositing to get up to $1,000 in free bets!

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Best bet, NFL week 14: Forget the marquee games, part 2

Wednesday, 04 December 2019 13:04 EST

Most of the lines for NFL week 14 are logical enough so as not to evidence any major outliers. Except…

Miami Dolphins +5½ at New York Jets

Seriously, this one is even more confounding than that “Tennessee -3 at Oakland” line. And in even more of a game featuring teams headed in opposite directions, how are the upward-trending Dolphins getting almost a touchdown against the frankly terrible New York Jets?

Look, NFLbets believed in the new-look Jets at season’s beginning, despite head coach Adam Gase’s preseason bitching about getting “stuck” with LeVeon Bell. (Of course, because why wouldn’t you want a potential top-5 RB starting for you?) Since then, however, Gase has seemingly attempted to stymie his own team’s success by not only refusing to fully exploit Bell’s skills but essentially every member of the offense.

Like the Las Vegas Raiders, the Jets managed to fool pundits and fans with a deceptive 3-game SU/ATS winning streak of consecutive 34-point games. But even leaving aside the pretty weak competition (vs New York Giants, at Washington, vs Vegas) of those three games, the truth is the Jets have managed a weak 17.0 points per game. Removing the three wins representing literally half of the team’s total points scored in 12 games, drops them to a week 11.3 ppg.

On the other side, after starting with what appeared to be a historically bad 0-5 SU/ATS start, the Dolphins shed themselves of some high-level talent, let Ryan “The Brain” Fitzpatrick run a pragmatic offense designed for a mostly young patchwork team and design some interesting plays and game plan. The Miami front office may be willing to tank to enhance those draft picks just a wee bit further, but this team is playing with admirable heart: A nice 6-1 ATS rebound has them at 6-6 ATS overall and, though you can’t (yet) bet on it, the Dolphins have a well brighter future. Even in the short term.

Take the Miami Dolphins +5½ at the Jets.

NFLbets’ Best Bets last week: 3-0.
NFLbets’ Best Bets this season: 15-13.

–written by Os Davis

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Best bets – or at least compelling longshots – for NFL week 13

Friday, 29 November 2019 14:00 EST

Probably Thanksgiving, which this year featured another quality episode of the Jason Garrett reality sitcom plus the Benny Hill-esque sequence of three consecutive successful onside kicks by the Atlanta Falcons that’s got NFLbets tempted into covering some longshots in week 13’s three marquee games. So let’s get the insanity started with…

New England Patriots -3½ at Houston Texans

Patriots backers have reasonable cause for optimism here: During the tyrannical reign of the Dark Lord In Bill Belichick’s time as New England head coach, the Patriots are 8-1 SU (6-3 ATS) against Texans teams of all stripes. In this era, the Pats are also 3-1 SU (2-2 ATS) at Houston, with the last meeting a 27-20 win over DeShaun Watson’s guys in week 1 of 2018.

But you know how NFLbets generally feels about history stretching back too far, i.e. such stats are fun to play with but mostly belong in halls of fame or museums. So we’ll learn back on our old favorite, regression to the mean.

The truth is that, going into the weekend, the Patriots are a nice 7-4 ATS, bettered only by the Buffalo Bills (8-4 ATS after the win at Dallas), New Orleans Saints (8-4 ATS after the win at Atlanta) and Arizona Cardinals (7-3-1 ATS). The Texans are a pedestrian 5-6 ATS, including a poor 1-4 ATS mark at home. These numbers all suggest to NFLbets that the pendulum is swinging away from New England and into the favor of Houston.

Now let’s talk that historically statistically incredible Patriots defense. Sure, numbers like “four passing TDs allowed in 11 games” are freakin’ bloody impressive, but just look at the schedule: The Pats have face one team – one! – currently at better than .500, and the was the playoff-bound Baltimore Ravens in week 9. In fact, the week 9 game represented the only week in which the Pats faced a top-10 offense and have enjoyed seven meetings with a bottom-12 offense. (OK, statistically the Cowboys are still a top-10 offense, but that 12-9 game in Foxborough may have represented the beginning of the statistical end for a side that might not even win the NFC East after all…)

Combine these numbers with the extremely poor performances the New England OL line has been turning in (they resemble the traditional Texans line more than anything) and the loooooooooooong list of injuries that Belichick is looking at, and we’ll back the healthier, more-driven Texans this week. Take the Houston Texans +3½ vs New England.

Minnesota Vikings +3 at Seattle Seahawks

This one is relatively simple. Firstly, NFLbets strongly believes that these Seahawks could well be playing in this season’s NFC Championship Game – even if it requires beating the San Francisco 49ers three times in a single season. Russell Wilson may actually be more valuable to his team than is Lamar Jackson to the Ravens, though his stat line isn’t nearly as gaudy.

Exactly why the Carroll-Wilson combo isn’t hyped on the level of Belichick-Brady or at least Payton-Brees is beyond us – these Seahawks have pulled one W after another out their proverbial butts this season with half the talent (of the Saints, at least). Seattle has eight wins of 8 points or fewer, four wins of 3 points or fewer, and two OT victories.

Most compelling of all, though, is the incredible fact that the NFL’s second-biggest home field advantage of the last 10 years has led Seattle to an 0-4 ATS mark at home thus far in 2019. This anomaly simply makes no sense and should be eradicated this week. Take the Seattle Seahawks -3 vs Minnesota.

San Francisco 49ers +6 at Baltimore Ravens

That’s right: We’re backing the West Coast going east and the still-evolving Jimmy Garoppolo over the football machine Lamar Jackson: Take the San Francisco 49ers +6 at Baltimore.

We won’t be offended if you don’t side with us on this one: Our sub-.500 mark in these “Best Bets” speaks for itself – but just hear us out.

Unlike, likesay, the Bills and Patriots, the Ravens haven’t necessarily benefitted from an easy schedule. In the past five games, the Ravens have averaged a 24-point win in the past five games at Seattle, vs New England, at Cincinnati, vs Houston and at the L.A. Rams. (Interestingly, this 5-game ATS win streak chased a 5-game ATS losing streak run up in weeks 2-6.) Such wins are likely what’s keeping the line so high against a 10-1 SU club.

On the field, Lamar Jackson has captured the collective imagination of sports media and fandom alike was his electrifying, mutant statistic-generating play – stuff like how Jackson and the Ravens are 31st in pass attempts but *number 1* in passing TDs. Like how four times in 2019 has Jackson run for more yards than the opposition’s “skill players” combined, highlighted by a 152-33 outrunning of Cincinnati in week 6.

Baltimore’s defense meanwhile is a tad overlooked by the hypesters, particularly in this game. This is a top-10 unit in most areas, though the rushing defense stats (tops in attempts against, no. 3 in yardage allowed) can be deceiving because opposing teams so often are forced to go to the pass early in blowouts.

The truth is that the Ravens D has yet to face anything like the trio of Tevin Coleman, Matt Breda and Raheem Mostert. These three have created an old-fashioned rushing attack in 21st-century by-committee fashion, giving the 49ers the NFL’s no. 1 rushing offense – not to mention the no. 2 offense in scoring. And as is well-known, San Francisco is no. 2 in overall defense and defensive DVOA, but what’s going undiscussed is the reality that Jackson et al have faced one defense of note in 2019: the Patriots, whose own numbers are slightly suspect for reasons detailed in the Patriots-Texans writeup above.

The point of all this analysis and/or rambling is that the game appears a lot tighter than the public consciousness and this point spread would have us believe – and should finish with less than a touchdown difference. NFLbets loves the 10-1 “underdog” San Francisco 49ers here…

NFLbets’ Best Bets last week: 2-0.
NFLbets’ Best Bets this season: 12-13.

–written by Os Davis

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Best Bets for week 12: What’s not to love about the NFC West?

Wednesday, 20 November 2019 20:08 EST

All right, NFLbets has got the Los Angeles Rams covered already among our picks of the week and we’d certainly bet the Arizona Cardinals against the bye if we could. Each team in the NFC West (with the exception of the defending NFC champion Rams) has well trumped even the highest realistic preseason expectations, and all (with the exception of the Seattle Seahawks) have proven at least fairly lucrative for NFL bettors.

The NFC West’s four teams are a combined 19-10 ATS (.655) against all non-NFC West teams; the breakdown looks like so:

Arizona Cardinals, 6-2
L.A. Rams, 6-2
San Francisco 49ers, 4-2
Seattle Seahawks, 3-4

And that 3-4 – not to mention Seattle’s 5-5 overall ATS record – is indicative of how bizarre betting the Seahawks at the sportsbook has been this season. The NFL’s second-best home team ATS is a stunning 0-4 ATS in Seattle in 2019. Crazy!

The point here is that NFLbets is loving the NFC West right now, and we’re ready to throw down more moneys on the Seahwaks and 49ers – probably the top two teams in the NFC.

Green Bay Packers +3 at San Francisco 49ers

Speaking (writing?) about exceeding expectations, how about those 8-2 Packers? Good stuff, NFLbets’d say … before checking for chinks in the armor.

The Green Bay defense has gotten many accolades – particularly when carrying a shaky offense in the first few games of the season – but are statistically pretty average and currently rank 18th in Football Outsiders’ DVOA metric. On the offensive side, the Packers rank top 10 both by convention measure and DVOA despite fair-to-middling numbers in most categories. How does this happen?

Turnovers – or rather lack thereof. Aaron Rodgers and his Packers simply don’t give up the ball willingly. Green Bay’s offense has surrendered a miniscule seven TOs and have only done so in three games – and haven’t turned it over once since week 6 against Detroit. Four straight games without a TO is quite a prolonged streak which seems ready to break.

So … can the 49ers break the Pack’s stinginess? Quite possibly: This defense is just nasty out there, with turnovers notched in nine of 10 games and three games of four TOs – including against the Seahwaks, likely the best offense they’ve met to this point.

For that matter, Rodgers & Co. are staring down the barrel of a D they haven’t seen in a while. The Niners are top-5 statistically in points, yards, passing yards, TDs, net yards per pass attempt and first downs surrendered. They’re also top-3 in tackles for a loss (should be handy against a nearly non-existent Green Bay running game) and, critically, turnover percentage rate.

The result of this insanity plus the marvelous Jimmy G? The *average outcome* of a 2019 San Francisco 49ers game thus far is a 30-16 win.

All in all, we’d hate to be in Aaron Rodgers’s shoes on this Sunday night. Take the San Francisco 49ers -3 vs Green Bay.

Seattle Seahawks +1 at Philadelphia Eagles

This one’s a bit of a baffler. If we take for granted that Las Vegas gives 2½ to 3½ points for homefield advantage, are the sportsbooks really claiming that the Seahawks are not at least a field goal better than the perpetually discombobulated Eagles?

Is it a West Coast-East Coast thing? Forget it. Since Russell Wilson took over at QB in 2012, the Carroll ‘n’ Wilson Seahawks are an impressive 17-6 SU in games in the Eastern time zone; for the record, they’re 15-7-1 ATS, but at Seahawks +1, this is essentially a “pick ‘em” anyway. And this particular edition of Seattle has thrown away homefield advantage anywhere in the country, anyway, at a whopping 4-1 ATS on the road – not to mention 5-0 SU.

NFLbets doesn’t think we need to go too heavy into the numbers on this one. Again, we’ll take the superior team, and take advantage of this bizarre underdog status. Take the Seattle Seahwaks ML of -105 at Philadelphia.

NFLbets’ Best Bets last week: 1-1.
NFLbets’ Best Bets this season: 10-13.

–written by Os Davis

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