Monday night


NFL week 10 ATS results: Hard realities for Chargers, Rams, Cowboys, Chiefs...

Wednesday, 13 November 2019 12:12 EST

Well, NFL week 10 sure established a few things, eh? Dirt may pretty much be shoveled onto the playoff chances of the “Los Angeles” Chargers and Los Angeles Rams. Chicago is now stuck with Mitch Trubisky for a few more weeks after the awesome Matt Patricia-coached defense allowed him to throw for three TDs. The Kansas City Chiefs are no longer even a top-3 contender to win the AFC. And the Dallas Cowboys are the Dallas Cowboys.

NFLbets’ roundup of week 8 results with scores adjusted for point spreads runs below; scores marked in bold indicate those games in which the SU and ATS result differed.

• Las Vegas/Oakland Raiders 26, “Los Angeles” Chargers 22½. Look, at least two things should have been made abundantly clear by this game: The Raiders are making the playoffs, the Chargers are not. NFLbets really can’t wait until the inevitable labelling of Chucky’s Guys as “The Greatest Team About To Leave Their Home City of All-Time.”

Minnesota Vikings 28 at Dallas Cowboys 20½. The proper NFL bettor does not assign attributes to teams and thus superstitiously avoid making good wagers, e.g. “I’m not betting the Panthers because I always lose money on them.” Having said (written?) that, these Cowboys…

• Pittsburgh Steelers 17, Los Angeles Rams 8½. Realistically speaking, the Rams been eliminated from playoff contention: At 1½ games behind current NFC no. 6 Minnesota and 2½ back of Seattle, L.A. may as well begin the tanking process in haste – except their first-round draft pick belongs to Jacksonville. Worse yet, the Rams have bigger, more expensive fish to fry: Aaron Donald, Andrew Whitworth, Dante Fowler Jr., Robert Woods, Todd Gurley are on contracts worth $42.78 million, plus Jared Goff stands to make $9.63 million on his unnecessarily restricted deal of this past offseason. Well, it looked good for about a year and a half there…

• New York Jets 34, New York Giants 24. Currently active high-level profession sports teams based in New York City include the Jets, Giants, Knicks, Brooklyn Nets and Rangers. So … um … go Islanders?

• Miami Dolphins 16 at Indianapolis Colts 2. With the Dolphins’ fifth consecutive win ATS, the bandwagon filling, and the still criminally overrated Bills coming to Miami next week, this seems like a really solid opportunity to bet against the plucky Fins.

• Chicago Bears 17½, Detroit Lions 13
• Atlanta Falcons 40, New Orleans Saints 9. Oddities aplenty in these two previews of Thanksgiving Day games, including Atlanta notching the biggest ATS upset of 2019 thus far while topping the Bears’ and Lions’ scores combined. Let’s hope these games are a bit higher quality, because on Sunday these guys were messier than your toothless uncle eating creamed corn while discussing impeachment at the holiday table.

• Cleveland Browns 16, Buffalo Bills 16. The only way the result of this sad sack of an NFL game that would be more appropriate is an actual SU tie.

• Arizona Cardinals 27, Tampa Bay Buccaneers 24½
• Green Bay Packers 19, Carolina Panthers 16. The Cardinals and Packers each currently stand at an impressive 7-3 ATS, which naturally makes NFLbets wants to throw big bucks against them both – but Green Bay’s on a bye, and Arizona is getting a way too high 10½ points at San Francisco, who’s on a short week. Make it tough, why don’tcha, sportsbooks?

• Baltimore Ravens 38½, Cincinnati Bengals 13. Since somehow giving up 40 points to Baker Mayfield and the Cleveland Browns, the Ravens are 5-0 SU (3-2 ATS and on a 3-0 run) and have between their last three opponents by 14, 17 and 36. They’re just waiting to ruin bets in the next couple of weeks…

• Tennessee Titans 35 at Kansas City Chiefs 27. Is the polish off the apple yet (and we don’t mean the Chiefs red-decked Andy Reid)?

• Seattle Seahawks 27 at San Francisco 49ers 18. Here’s to thinking that, in a Seahawks-Patriots Super Bowl LIV, Pete Carroll’s gonna wish he had a Beast Mode to run straight down the middle...

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Week 10 Picks of the Week: Doing the opposite (or rather the reverse)

Wednesday, 06 November 2019 14:24 EST

All right, NFLbets is changing things up this week. After our typical slow start to the season, several good weeks in a row have put us back in the black – under the “Picks of the Week”, rubric, that is. Our so-called “Best Bets” were a total whiff again last week to dump NFLbets’ record for 2019 down to 9-12.

So, yeah. This week, we’re Costanzianly doing the opposite. This week’s Picks of the Week are stealthily our Best Bets and vice versa. NFLbets doesn’t know how that’ll affect your wagering, but full transparency, eh?

What we’re calling NFLbets’ Picks of Week 10 follow.

“Los Angeles” Chargers -1½ at Oakland(/Las Vegas) Raiders

Throw out the numbers: This line is essentially asking you to choose which is the better team: The veteran-stocked team without a home or the surprisingly ragtag bunch getting set to leave home? The Chargers window of Super Bowl contention may already by closed, while Chucky and his plucky Raiders are doing their damnedest to pry that sucker open and force their way into the playoffs.

And consider the greater trends, the actual football these teams are playing. The Raiders recently came off five consecutive road games, including three against prospective playoff teams (Minnesota, Green Bay and Houston) or four (depending on how you feel about Indianapolis’s chances with their third choice at quarterback the rest of the way), plus the London game, at a respectable-enough 2-3 SU (3-2 ATS). Last week, they handled Detroit in front of a raucous crowd and this week face a team with no discernible fanbase at all.

So what about those homeless, fan-less Chargers lately? Sure enough, they won SU/ATS in Los Angeles in front of a just-as-raucous crowd of Packers fans for their first “home” win of the season. Prior to that, the Chargers scored 17 points to eke out a 1-point W in Chicago. Prior to that, a 1-5 run had removed them from serious discussion of the 2019 NFL playoffs temporarily.

Both teams, then, are trending upward and both are currently in serious contention for the no. 6 spot. But you know what? Only the Raiders have Josh Jacobs, who has been tormenting defenses over the past four weeks. This dude plus homefield advantage should be enough in this one. Take the 1½ points if you must, but here at NFLbets’ we prefer to take the Raiders ML at +105 for well better value.

Los Angeles Rams -3½ at Pittsburgh Steelers

Whoa, have the Rams been good to bettors this season. The 2018 NFC champs are at 6-2 ATS (including a spiffy 5-0 ATS outside of Los Angeles), tied for league best along with the New Orleans Saints. Of course, this gaudy record makes NFLbets want to bet against the Rams just weekly – but what are we supposed to do when L.A. is currently in one helluva soft spot in the schedule?

Seriously, after a couple of tough losses against fellow NFC West playoff contenders Seattle and San Francisco, the Rams drew Atlanta and Cincinnati, followed by a bye. Next week, they draw Chicago, which may become the first NFL team ever to field an offense without a quarterback. Not that the 2019 Los Angeles Rams need a puff schedule to look scary; though the pass defense has lost a beat from last year, the offense is top-10 in most statistical categories and, until the 49ers game, scoring had hardly been a problem.

Pittsburgh meanwhile features second-/third-string quarterback Mason Rudolph, whose 3-2 SU record as a starter looks impressive enough until you realize that tops among the wins was last week’s over Indianapolis with *their* third-string QB and Adam Vinatieri’s old foot and depended on a 96-yard pick-six.

On one hand, the Steelers’ starting quarterback seems not to matter. Regardless of QB, Pittsburgh’s is a poor offense which is bottom-5 in passing yardage, rushing yardage and first downs. Because of freak plays like Minkah Fitzpatrick’s TD, however, the Steelers have managed 20 to 27 points in every game after the 33-3 drubbing the Patriots handed them in week 1. And gifts like Vinatieri’s shank has them on a 5-1 ATS run going into this game.

Which is exactly why we’re saying take the Los Angeles Rams -3½ at Pittsburgh. Sometimes you just have to back the better team – especially after a bye week.

Seattle Seahawks +6 at San Francisco 49ers

The Seahwaks this season have proven the diametric opposite to the Rams to NFL bettors. While arguably one of the surprises of the league, the ’Hawks are a mere 3-5 ATS and an incredible 0-5 ATS in Seattle. This team’s propensity for just doing enough for the win may make for exciting football, but it’s maddening for those with money down.

So why is NFLbets even considering the eventuality that Seattle’s numbers stay so wickedly imbalanced for one more week? Because the 49ers have been absolutely whupping the ’spreads in 2019. San Francisco has apparently put together a Super Bowl contender about a year early: the Niners are a healthy 5-3 ATS, including a 3-0 ATS mark at home.

About that home record of the 49ers … NFLbets is inclined to neuter that particular number this week because the Seahawks have proven not only this season but in general to enjoy the advantage over West Coast teams: Since Russell Wilson’s debut in 2012, they’re 6-3-1 ATS (5-5 SU) at Los Angeles and San Francisco.

The 49ers haven’t been playing the most impressive of competition – only two of their eight wins came against teams with winning records – but that no. 1 pass defense cannot be denied and since the bye week have enjoyed a turnover differential of +5. Then again, this D has yet to see the likes of Wilson, again tops in the league in passing when pressured.

Fair enough, Seattle squeaked past the inferior-if-exciting Buccaneers last week in OT, but many were thinking upset when center Austin Britt was reported out. The key to the Seahawks keeping this one close will be improving upon the three sacks allowed to a pass rush that isn’t half as deadly as San Francisco’s.

In the final analysis, though, NFLbets is making a football call here. We believe that Russell Wilson is probably the MVP right now. We also believe that the Seahwaks are a true Super Bowl contender. And MVP QBs leading Super Bowl contenders win these sorts of games. SU, we’re talking. Sure, take the Seattle Seahawks +6, but also take the Seahawks ML at +230 – a payout here is like three wins for the price of two!

NFLbets’ Picks of the Week last week: 4-2.
NFLbets’ Picks of the Week this season: 27-15.

Check here for the current NFL Weekly Odds.

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NFL week 9 ATS results: Revenge of the homers (except *#@^#^@ing Seattle)

Tuesday, 05 November 2019 10:33 EST

We probably should have been expecting week 9 to play out like that. Going into the games, the home team had gone just 51-68-2 ATS and 53-63-1 SU; naturally, mathematically, order was restored (or at least well on its way to restoration). The home sides were nearly unstoppable this week at 10-3 ATS (8-5 SU) which in itself produced some weird results: Arizona and Miami winning ATS in the same week; the Patriots getting smoked on the road; and the Chargers recording their best-ever victory at the soccer stadium.

On the other hand, the Seahawks infuriatingly dropped their game in Seattle ATS. The Seahawks are a seriously ugly outlier this season: As the team’s no. 2 home team ATS, the ’Hawks are a sad 0-4 at home thus far in 2019. NFLbets thinks Pete Carroll owes us some money for all these heart-attack SU wins/ ATS losses at this point.

NFLbets’ roundup of week 8 results with scores adjusted for point spreads runs below; scores marked in bold indicate those games in which the SU and ATS result differed.

• Arizona Cardinals 25, San Francisco 49ers 17½. So the 49ers are now 8-0 SU (5-3 ATS), but in their second half get six of eight games against prospective playoff teams: vs Seattle, vs Green Bay, at Baltimore, at New Orleans, vs the Rams and at Seattle. This feels a lot like 3-5 ATS the rest of the way and, as much as the hypemongers want a New England-San Francisco Super Bowl, that’s no easy road for Jimmy G. & Co.

• Houston Texans 24½ at London Jaguars 3. Speaking of the Super Bowl, NFLbets has said (written?) it before and will say (write?) it again: At times, the 2019 Houston Texans seriously resemble a championship team now that the OL is respectable (just seven sacks allowed in the past five games, which might be a franchise record). And yeah, we’ve heard about J.J. Watt’s injury.

• Kansas City Chiefs 26, Minnesota Vikings 17½. Hey, maybe when Patrick Mahomes gets back, the Chiefs should consider sticking with Matt Moore! #QuarterbackControversy.

• “Los Angeles” Chargers 26, Green Bay Packers 7. Clearly the upset of the week – how many parlays did this result kill? And as a result of the win, Chargers management is apparently seriously considering relocating to London, U.K., perhaps to finally give this franchise its first homefield advanage since Stan Humphries was at QB.

Buffalo Bills 13½, Washington 9. You wanna talk regression to the mean? Consider Washington, a city with a Stanley Cup and World Series championships fresh on the mantel – but with an NBA team doomed to last-place finishes until John Wall retires from the league, and an NFL team that … well, you know how bad they are.

Carolina Panthers 26½, Tennessee Titans 20. Wait a minute, an NFC South/AFC South game with a result that makes sense? Hold everything here, it’s Mandela Effect time…

• Oakland/Las Vegas Raiders 28½, Detroit Lions 24. On the other hand, NFLbets doesn’t believe there’s a universe alternate enough to consider these particular Raiders bona fide contenders. Personally, we’re looking forward to Gruden et al winning 5 or 6 of their last eight, squeaking into the no. 6 spot in the AFC playoffs at 9-7 and just getting torched in Kansas City. We’re counting the money now.

• Miami Dolphins 26, New York Jets 14½. Break up the Dolphins! Hey, somebody had to say it...

Denver Broncos 24, Cleveland Browns 15. Note to Cleveland Browns: Do you realize that you’ve got a guy on your staff who has four Grey Cup titles under his belt, including one as head coach and two as defensive coordinator? And instead you’re running with a head coach whose résumé’s major highlight is “works well with Baker Mayfield”? Come on, guys … #FreeChrisJones

• Philadelphia Eagles 17, Chicago Bears 14. The biggest disappointment of the 2019 NFL season for both fans and bettors alike? The Chicago Bears, and it’s not even close. After going a ridiculous 12-5 ATS (including 7-2 ATS at home) in 2018, Da Bearssssssss are tied with the bottom-feeding Falcons, Browns and Jets at 2-6 in ’19. Ah well, at least the under is still a great play with Trubisky at the helm…

• Baltimore Ravens 37, New England Patriots 14. Come on, don’t be so shocked. You didn’t *really* think the Patriots were gonna go 16-0 SU this season, did you?

• Pittsburgh Steelers 26, Indianapolis Colts 24. ’Member how Adam Vinatieri won ta couple of Super Bowls for New England with field goals? ’Member how his 12 points was the margin of victory in Indy’s Super Bowl win? Neither does anyone else who bet on the Colts this week after that ridiculous shank. In truth, that freakish display might ultimately the difference between Indianapolis a playoff spot, too.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 34 at Seattle Seahawks 33½. Now, some might say that NFLbets losing this bet by a half-point was karma for winning twice by half a point last week. To those people we say … ah, nevermind.

PS. The Game went over due to a blowen call that might sting for some

Dallas Cowboys 30½ at New York Giants 18. You have to love how the Cowboys D totally took charge at the line of … oh, kitty! What a nice kitty kitty kitty, good kitty…

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Last-minute bets for week 9: Looking for Lions, Dolphins to surprise

Friday, 01 November 2019 09:23 EST

At NFLbets, we’ve always thought that playing “pick ‘em pools” or participating in any contest which requires one to pick every game on the NFL slate every week is folly. However, maybe you’ve been suckered into an office pool or you’re looking for a third, fourth, fifth or sixth team to go along with NFLbets’ Picks of the Week or Best Bets for week 9 – so check out these not-necessarily-recommendations when considering how to fill that ticket.

Minnesota Vikings -2½ at Kansas City Chiefs
With Patrick Mahomes almost certain to miss this contest, the Chiefs look like a team that will losing its fourth straight at Arrowhead. It’s that simple, NFL betting enthusiasts… Take the Minnesota Vikings -2½ at Kansas City.

Tennessee Titans +3½ at Carolina Panthers
The 49ers made second-year signal-caller Kyle Allen look awful last weekend, but Tennessee isn’t nearly as good as ’Frisco, which is why i like the Panthers to take care of business in this one as Christian McCaffrey stars. Take the Carolina Panthers -3½ vs Tennessee.

New York Jets -5½ at Miami Dolphins
Miami might be winless, but i’m feeling like karma is going to rear its ugly head when former ’Fins head coach Adam Gase and the lowly Jets hit South Beach this weekend. When it comes to Week 9 NFL odds, take the Miami Dolphins +5½ vs the New York Jets, and, for a fun extra wager cuz NFLbets’s been winning lately, take the Dolphins ML at +150 or so.

Washington +9½ at Buffalo Bills
. Look: The Bills may lose to every decent opponent they face this season, but they’re hardly incompetent. Washington is certainly near such. Take the Buffalo Bills -9½ vs Washington.

Detroit Lions +2 at (Las Vegas/)Oakland Raiders
When it comes to the NFL lines for this Week 9 inter-conference clash, i say take the over on an O/U of 50½ points, seeing as how the Lions and Raiders combine to allow 52.3 points per game defensively. As for the outcome of the game, we’re saying take the Detroit Lions +2 at Oakland and thus also take the Lions on the ML at +105.

Cleveland Browns -2½ at Denver Broncos
It might just be wishful thinking, but here’s to hoping Von Miller and the rest of Denver’s stout defense pounds Baker Mayfield into the dirt – like, repeatedly. Take the Denver Broncos +2½ vs Cleveland.

New England Patriots -3½ at Baltimore Ravens
You heard it here first, NFL gambling faithful: Lamar Jackson leads the Ravens to a confidence-boosting win at home against Tom Brady and the unbeaten defending Super Bowl champions. Take the Baltimore Ravens +3½ vs New England, and take the Ravens ML at +140.

Dallas Cowboys -7 at New York Giants
The Cowboys would appear to have gotten their act together, but I don’t trust Jason Garrett. After losing to the Jets a couple of weeks ago, I’m thinking Saquon Barkley and Daniel Jones lead the G-Men to an ATS cover at the very least – but hey, let’s get ballsy: Take the New York Giants +7 vs Dallas and also play the Dallas Cowboys ML at -350. Since no sportsbook – online, in Las Vegas or elsewhere – will offer a parlay with that particular combination (too bad, because such a bet would pay out at +150 or so), play them both separately, and parlay the Cowboys with, likesay, the Colts, Packers and Seahawks

–written by Ben Rapstrew

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NFL week 8 ATS results: Losing faith in mathematics (sort of)

Tuesday, 29 October 2019 19:43 EST

Last week, away teams ruled ATS in going an impressive 9-4-11 – but in week 8, the visitors really killed it with an 10-3 mark plus one neutral-site game. However, truly crazy is the reality that these results are the norm in 2019: Home teams are, incredibly enough, just 51-68-2 ATS this season; and SU, homers are barely better at 53-63-1.

To further weird things us, consider that while only one team remains undefeated ATS at home thus far are the San Francisco 49ers, four have yet to win at home: The Los Angeles Chargers (if you want to acknowledge the soccer stadium in which Chargers backers are always outnumbered), Kansas City Chiefs, Tampa Bay Buccaneers and, stunningly, the Seattle Seahawks. The Green Bay Packers, Los Angeles Rams and Indianapolis Colts, meanwhile, are undefeated on the road/in neutral-site games at a combined 10-0-1.

NFLbets is, of course, a big believer in regression to the mean, but this trend is nearly enough to shake one’s confidence in numbers.

NFLbets’ roundup of week 8 results with scores adjusted for point spreads runs below; scores marked in bold indicate those games in which the SU and ATS result differed.

• Washington 9 at Minnesota Vikings 2½
New York Giants 26 at Detroit Lions 24½

• Philadelphia Eagles 29 at Buffalo Bills 13. With the Dallas Cowboys on a bye, the pitiable NFC North went 3-0 ATS – not improbably the last time this season this division will rack up three ATS wins in a single week.

• Jacksonville Jaguars 23½ at New York Jets 15
• Tennessee Titans 25, Tampa Bay Buccaneers 22. Since Buffalo was unmasked as frauds last weekend and the AFC North teams are generally inferior … could two AFC South teams make the playoffs?

• Oakland Raiders 24 at Houston Texans 22. Let’s hope that three AFC South teams don’t get to the postseason, because the only way to win ATS with an AFC South team in not to bet.

• New England Patriots 13½, Cleveland Browns 13. Those who bet on Patriots -13½ would like to thank the Browns OL for giving up a sack in the fourth quarter in a situation which might have put Cleveland within “just” two scores and might’ve flipped this result for bettors.

• Atlanta Falcons 20 at Seattle Seahawks 19½. With this win, the Seahawks are 3-1 as visitors ATS and – get this – 0-4 ATS at home. This is one serious outlier, considering that over the past 15 years, the Seahawks rank no. 2 at home ATS overall (and go ahead, take one guess as to who’s no. 1). Mark it down right now: You’ll be taking the Seahawks minus any points at home the rest of the way, relevance of game depending. (For the record, that’s week 9 vs. Tampa Bay, week 13 vs. Minnesota, week16 vs Arizona and week 17 vs San Francisco.

• San Francisco 49ers 46½, Carolina Panthers 13. Yeesh, since when did the 49ers become the Chiefs (except with a frankly awesome defense)? Note: Excepting the anomalous weather-marred Washington game, this team is averaging 33.0 points per game, yet the over in Niners games is 5-2 thus far. Sounds like the over is a good bet down the stretch – if the D doesn’t crush everyone like they did the Panthers…

• Denver Broncos 13 at Indianapolis Colts 9½. Correct NFLbets if we’re wrong, but wasn’t that Joe “6.6 yards per pass attempt” Flacco complaining about not getting a chance to win the game for his Broncos. We don’t say (write?) this often, but … whatever, dude.

• “Los Angeles” Chargers 17 at Chicago Bears 12½. Eddy Piniero did more than help lose the game for Chicago last week, he also delivered a dagger to any holders of “Bears -3½” and “over 41” tickets. There, Piniero, now all those folks hate you, too.

• New Orleans Saints 18½, Arizona Cardinals 9
• Los Angeles Rams 10½, Cincinnati Bengals 10 (UK)
• Green Bay Packers 29 at Kansas City Chiefs 24. These three winners (along with Guess Who) top the ATS standings board at 6-2; quite an impressive feat, considering that all four entered the season as expected playoff teams. Further, the Rams, Packers and Patriots have played as favorites in 21 of the combined 24 games, and the Saints are on a 5-0 ATS run.

• Miami Dolphins 14 at Pittsburgh Steelers 12½. Would you believe that, after the Saints, the Miami Flippin’ Dolphins are the hottest team in the NFL ATS? Three wins in a row and counting…

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NFL Week 7 results ATS: Homefield disadvantage

Tuesday, 22 October 2019 12:57 EST

Rough week for home teams, eh? In week 7, the visitors were a big 9-4-1 Against The Spread (ATS) and San Francisco might’ve made it 10-3-1 had not conditions been so ridiculous in Washington. For weeks 8 and 9, NFL bettors will definitely want to keep an eye on this week’s four home winners: Washington, Indianapolis, Dallas and Green Bay; all except Washington will likely receive exaggerated point spreads.

NFLbets’ roundup of week 7 results with scores adjusted for point spreads runs below; scores marked in bold indicate those games in which the SU and ATS result differed.

Kansas City Chiefs 27 at Denver Broncos 6. Playing in Denver may be an advantage in the actual games themselves, but it’s strictly Rocky Mountain Low ATS: Since 2005, Elway’s guys are second-worst in the league ATS, “topped” only by the Oakland Raiders, whose record in this stat should really reset to 0-0 as the Las Vegas Raiders. Thus far this year, the Broncos are a surprising 3-1 ATS at home but this loss is probably the first of, likesay, five in 2019.

Green Bay Packers 36½, Oakland/Las Vegas Raiders 24. And speaking of the Raiders, Chucky & Co. fell to Aaron Rodgers’s fantasy fantasy football day. Nothing makes any NFL bettor or fan await the following Sunday like a statistically bombastic performance by a quarterback which elicits GOAT conversations. Already NFLbets is leaning against the Packers next week, with their surely bloated point spread.

Baltimore Ravens 30 at Seattle Seahawks 13. Then there’s Lamar Jackson and his Baltimore Ravens whupping Russell Wilson’s guys in Seattle. Watch the hype on the Ravens this week. Watch Wilson’s odds in the “To Win NFL MVP” proposition bet widen. And watch Baltimore lose and Seattle win ATS next time out.

• Miami Dolphins 21 at Buffalo Bills 14. “How about them DOLPHINS?!?!?!??!!!” said no one in 2019.

Los Angeles Rams 34 at Atlanta Falcons 10. How much longer can Dan Quinn possibly hold onto his job based on “we took the Patriots to overtime in that one Super Bowl”? NFL bettors hope he stays on a little longer as Atlanta head coach, because at 1-6 ATS, the Falcons have been a pleasure to bet against all season long. Some goes for Doug Pederson over there in Philadelphia.

Dallas Cowboys 34, Philadelphia Eagles 10. The Cowboys are for real! No, they aren’t! Yes, they are! (The truth is that Dallas is 3-0 SU/ATS against the NFC East, 1-3 SU/ATS against all others.) As for the Eagles, at least they’ve got no worries about their so-called competition catching them. To wit:

• Arizona Cardinals 27 at New York Giants 17½. How does a team allow 27 points on 260 total yards of offense? Also, how does an offensive line allow eight sacks?

• Washington 10, San Francisco 49ers 9. As the 49ers were favored by 10 in this game, NFLbets seriously considered posting a spread-adjusted score of minus-1 to zero, which was probably the total number of net yards each team managed in the first half of this slogfest. Here’s to hoping you banged the under when you saw/read about these field conditions.

• Indianapolis Colts 28½, Houston Texans 23. Yep, NFLbets regrets not one iota the decision to avoid betting on these AFC South interdivisional games…

• Minnesota Vikings 39½ at Detorit Lions 30. NFLbets had the Lions pegged for the NFL’s trap team in 2019, i.e. that team which gets off to an overachieving first-half start against an easy schedule, only to tip the crowded bandwagon by losing, likesay, five of the last six games. But it seems the Lions will begin losing long before the homestretch after all.

• New Orleans Saints 36 at Chicago Bears 21. Considered the fickleness of fandom and the short-term memory of sports media, NFLbets is rather surprised that no one’s suggesting a quarterback controversy brewing in New Orleans.

• Jacksonville Jaguars 23 at Cincinnati Bengals 17. After eking out a victory against a winless team, folks are bullish on the Jags again? Come on…

• “Los Angeles” Chargers 20 at Tennessee Titans 20. Even if CBS tried to force feed this to audiences in Southern California, Arizona, Minesota and Hawaii, was anyone outside of Tennessee watching this game? For that matter, with a NASCAR race on a competing network, was anyone *in* Tennessee watching this game?

• New England Patriots 23½ at New York Jets 0. Was Adam Gase trying to save his job with a sense of humor in declining consecutive penalties in the fourth quarter? Busted NFLbets up, for sure…

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NFL week 5 ATS results: Thursday Night wounds NFL bettors, Chiefs loss finishes 'em off

Wednesday, 09 October 2019 09:09 EST

Christian McCaffrey, beastAnd we thought week 4 was tough…

Week 5 in the 2019 NFL season started off tough for bettors: The line on the Thursday Night Football game started at Los Angeles Rams -1½ at Seattle, flipped to Seahawks -2-, ended at most sportsbooks at Seahwaks -1½, meaning essentially anyone who played the point spread on TNF lost – except for those few lucky folks that caught the line at Seahawks -½ or “pick ’em.”

It wasn’t quite all downhill from there, but the Bears sure proved the random elements that enter the betting action when an NFL game is played in England; both 2-TD ’spreads covered; and Patrick Mahomes and his Kansas City Chiefs offense looked human.

NFLbets, for one, is glad to have emerged from the bloodbath at breakeven point again but talk about your grueling week of NFL betting…Below runs NFLbets’ roundup of week 5 results with scores adjusted for point spreads, runs below; scores marked in bold indicate those games in which the SU and ATS result differed.

• Los Angeles Rams 29 at Seattle Seahawks 28½
Pittsburgh Steelers 23, Baltimore Ravens 22½. Outlier statistic of the week: Just two games flipped the SU and ATS results – and both had a differential of a half-point. Wacky!

• Minnesota Vikings 22½ at New York Giants 10. Look, NFLbets doesn’t blame you for forgetting that Danny Dimes is a rookie and that you shouldn’t bet on rookies. Nor can we fault you for recognizing that you shouldn’t bet on Kirk Cousins. We were right there with you, man…

• Carolina Panthers 31, Jacksonville Jaguars 27. NFLbets isn’t sure what to make of essentially any team in the AFC South or NFC South (except Atlanta; they’re terrible), and we certainly tending to stay away for inter- *and* cross-division games involving these eight teams but we do know one thing for sure: Christian McCaffrey is an unstoppable force of nature.

• Oakland/Las Vegas Raiders 24, Chicago Bears 15½. And speaking of games NFLbets over-confidently bet and egregiously lost last week, yeesh. All we can say (write?) is that either a) the difference in experience between playing in England once and twice is huge or b) the Raiders and head coach Chucky Gruden are better than we thought. We probably going (a) on this one, because we’re just not ready to believe in these Raiders yet...

• Green Bay Packers 34 at Dallas Cowboys 17½. We’re still uncertain about the Packers as well. Yes, we know they’re 4-1 SU/ATS, including 3-1 against possible playoff teams (Chicago, Minnesota, Philadelphia, Dallas). But to us, the 2020 Green Bay Packers are kinda like that dude in your fantasy league who’s 8th or 9th in points but manages to catch everyone on just the right week. At Dallas, for example, the Packers essentially turned the Cowboys offense into the Texans’. Dak Prescott went for a career-high 463 yards, including two long strikes to Amari Cooper and Michael Gallup, who went for 339 yards combined. Luckily for Green Bay, the Cowboys are the Cowboys, are coached by Jason Garett and generously gave up three picks and three sacks. We’re feeling the possibility of an upset (at least ATS) next week versus the Lions. In fact, we’d guess the Pack is heading for treacherous waters in the near future with vs Detroit, vs Oakland/Las Vegas, at Kansas City, at the L.A. Chargers, bye and at San Francisco. We’ll see.

• Houston Texans 49, Atlanta Falcons 32. 85 total points scored? Um, yeah, pretty sure the over hit here.

• Indianapolis Colts 19 at Kansas City Chiefs 2½. A bit of an eye-opener for Chiefs backers here, as suddenly the only team worth betting to win the AFC right now is … well, you know. And speaking of the Patriots, from the Point Spreads This Big Shouldn’t Exist Department come these two ATS results:

• Philadelphia Eagles 17, New York Jets 6
New England Patriots 17 at Washington 7.

• Arizona Cardinals 26 at Cincinnati Bengals 20. Happily, NFLbets had the previous two favorites covered as well as the over in this game – and that’s likely to be the last time for a while we’re covering the over in games involving the Cardinals and Bengals in the same week in 2019.

• Denver Broncos 20 at Los Angeles Chargers 9. Aaaaand the 2019 “Los Angeles” Chargers are again off to a roaring start, going 0-2-1 at “home” so far, which brings their cumulative record in the Carson soccer stadium filled with fans of the opposition in a minimum 5:1 ratio to a whopping 1-8-1. Can we just call these neutral-field games once and for all…?

• Buffalo Bills 14 at Tennessee Titans 3½. You know, this Buffalo Bills team could be the franchise’s best this century. Which is not unlike being the best vintage of German wine.

• New Orleans Saints 28, Tampa Bay Buccaneers 24. Geez, has anyone noticed how free-flowing points have become in Buccaneers games? The over is on a commanding 3-0 run, with the average score in those gomes 39-32.

• San Francisco 49ers 26, Cleveland Browns 3. Things sure are easy when you're a West Coast team playing at home in a night game after a bye week. And the opposing team doesn't play defense.

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NFL week 4 results ATS: Let’s … just put that behind us, shall we?

Wednesday, 02 October 2019 10:54 EST

NFLbets has said (written?) it before and we’ll say it again: After week 1, the most difficult of all for NFL betting in the schedule is week 4. This is the week when the bookmakers have these teams figured out, but the average bettor does not.

As a result, this year’s NFL week 4 brought us underdogs going 10-5 ATS and 8-7 SU. We got the Detroit Lions covering against the mighty Kansas City Chiefs, we got the Buffalo Bills doing just enough to beat the ultra-team from New England, and we got the Oakland/Las Vegas Raiders winning outright against (probably) a pretty fair Indianapolis Colts side.

Ah, whatever. Week 5’ll be easier, right? In the meantime, NFLbets presents our roundup of week 4 results with scores adjusted for point spreads, runs below; scores marked in bold indicate those games in which the SU and ATS result differed.

• Philadelphia Eagles 34 at Green Bay Packers 23½. In this year’s Regression Bowl, the heretofore 0-3 ATS Eagles took care of the 3-0 ATS Packers at home – straight up, even – for NFL bettors. An easy enough pick, as long as one is willing to look past fans' irrational belief in Aaron Rodgers, the so-called Lambeau Mystique and the fact that Philadelphia hasn’t looked very sharp, particularly on offense. You just gotta play the numbers sometimes always.

• Chicago Bears 16, Minnesota Vikings 5. But here’s one regression to the mean we may not see this season: NFLbets sees no reason not to continue covering the under every time “Chicago Bears” is in the line. The under is 1-3 in Bears games thus far in 2019, and the one over was by 5 points against Washington, who’s essentially encouraging opposing teams to score points. This week, the over/under for Bears-Raiders (titter) in London (giggle) is … 40½? (LMFAO!)

• Oakland Raiders 31 at Indianapolis Colts 18½. Just when it looked like the Raiders might be onto something, defensive captain gets tossed for the season. And now it's on to England, where Jon Gruden under-coached his guys to a 27-3 butt-drumming at the hands of the Seahwaks. Who else likes the Bears this week...?

Buffalo Bills 10, New England Patriots 9. From the bettor's standpoint, Buffalo looked pretty impressive in keeping Tom Brady & Co. powerless in the second half. In the real world, however, neither losing in sacks 5-0 and going 2-of-13 on 3rd down won't win many games SU against decent teams, never mind Super Bowl contenders.

• Cleveland Browns 40 at Baltimore Ravens 17½. Everybody back aboard the Cleveland bandwagon? Great! Get ready to get back on and off and on and off in the next four weeks for at San Francisco, vs Seattle, bye, at New England and at Denver. Tell us again why this team was second favorite for the AFC Championship at the beginning of the season…

Denver Broncos 24, Jacksonville Jaguars 23½. But hey, here's one bandwagon that's steady, if weighed down: The Jaguars and Gardner Minshuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuu!

• Los Angeles Chargers 15 at Miami Dolphins 10. Another week, anotherr 2-TD+ point spread covered against Miami. What do you figure they'll be getting against the bye? 12 points? 12½...?

• New York Giants 21, Washington 3. We know we're supposed to be taking these "one week at a time" and alla that, but in two weeks (drumroll please), the schedule includes Washington – presumably with their new interim head coach – at Miami. We're currently in line to take the under on that one.

• New Orleans Saints 12, Dallas Cowboys 7½. The proper bettor doesn’t give too much credence to specific team histories, but betting on the Cowboys post-Jimmy Johnson has been excruciating. This team, it seems, is perpetually attempting to convince fans they’re contenders – unless they’re hastily rolling back those expectations built up after a mini-run. You’ll notice that NFLbets rarely covers Dallas; this is no coincidence.

• Carolina Panthers 16 at Houston Texans 4½. And on a much shorter-term scale, similar could be said about the Texans. Except that we have bet on the Texans a few times too many…

• Tennessee Titans 24 at Atlanta Falcons 6½. So do you suppose Dan Quinn already has a draft of his résumé at Zip Recruiter ready to hit POST on Monday?

• Seattle Seahawks 21½ at Arizona Cardinals 10. And do you suppose Kyler Murray ever wonders how that whole baseball thing might have turned out? Even just a little bit…?

Detroit Lions 30, Kansas City Chiefs 26½. Maybe it's not *all* smoke and mirrors in Detroit: Matt Stafford has again (again!) gotten the Lions’ passing game into the NFL’s top 10 in most categories – and with Marvin Jones as his no. 1 option, no less. But NFLbets is still not buying the whole Head Coach Matt "The Pencil" Patricia schtick yet. In our estimation, this team looks like one of those classic surprise first-half teams which chases a 5-3 with a 1-7 or 2-6 in the second. Still, nice win this win for those with intestinal fortitude enough to have covered those plucky Lions.

• Tampa Bay Buccaneers 55 at Los Angeles Rams 31. Jared Goff went for 517 yards on 68 attempts with an over 80% completion rate and he's still perceived of as having had a bad game? Nobody throws a bad interception like this guy...

• Pittsburgh Steelers 23½, Cincinnati Bengals 3. Overreaction game of correction game? The worst part about NFL betting is that the narrative often only becomes clear months later. Two things are certain, however: Pittsburgh will be getting the benefit of hype next week and Cincinnati will be underrated in the lines.


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All we know about Saints-Panthers on MNF is that points will be scored – lots of points

Monday, 17 December 2018 15:07 EST

Here’s a theory about scoring in 2018 NFL games. We all know that outlandish over/unders like the 64 on Rams-Chiefs in week 12 have been matched (or topped, really) by outrageous scores like, well, 54-51. But these presumptions – borne out by statistics – were formulated in the first half of the season while much of the U.S. even in the era of climate change still enjoy mild-to-crisp autumnal temperatures.

You see where NFLbets is going here, right? Take a look at the scoreboard for a weekend on which the under went 8-5-1: Games in Baltimore, Buffalo, Chicago, Denver, New Jersey and Pittsburgh all went under. Games in Atlanta, Los Angeles, Miami and San Francisco (where the temperature was 61°F at kickoff) all went over. The game in Cincinnati between the low-offense Raiders and no-offense Bengals pushed.

The exceptions to the under winning in sub.-55° weather in week 15:

• Houston Texans at the New “York” Jets, a game in which the score was still 13 points under the O/U line heading in the 4th quarter; and

• the Washington-Jaguars game in Jacksonville, which y’all really should have known would be well under – do these teams even *have* offenses at this point?

New Orleans Saints -6 at Carolina Panthers, over/under 50½ points

The truth is the NFLbets will readily admit to ignorance vis-à-vis the state of Cam Newton’s injury/injuries right now, nor why they’ve thrown away chances in each of the last four games, all single-score SU losses. We’re also not foolish enough to believe in the Carolina seesaw (beginning in 2012, the Panthers have finished 7-9, 12-4, 7-8-1, 15-1, 6-10 and 11-5; they're currently 6-7) despite the continuity of Ron ‘n’ Cam.

Normal circumstances would suggest that, with at least two hyper-talented “skill players” on the offense and an okay defense combined with the very realistic possibility of elimination from playoff contention, the Panthers would bring the house creatively speaking and surprise the Saints with an “upset” in Carolina. But if the 2018 Carolina Panthers were that easy for NFLbets to peg, we’d be a lot better than 2-5 betting on them and overs in their games.

On the other side are the Saints who, in NFLbets’ opinion, look like the NFC representative for Super Bowl LIII (to meet the Los Angeles Chargers). Strictly pragmatically speaking, however, wagering on New Orleans should be giving NFL bettors the yips a bit. To this point, the Saints are an incredible 11-3 ATS; winning out ATS would give the 2018 Saints the best record ATS this century. Heck, even figuring that they’ll likely be able to throw away the week 17 game thanks to the Rams’ recent incompetence, they’d be the first team to go 12-4 ATS since the ’03 New England Patriots.

In more subjective terms, NFLbets is still unsure about this offense a bit after getting its wings clipped in Dallas. The Saints chased this SU loss with a win at Tampa Bay in which a bottom-5 NFL defense held them to 11 points in the first three quarters. This game at Carolina represents New Orleans’s third straight on the road and we’re assuming that these Saints are at least mortal enough to feel the effects of such a schedule at least a tiny amount.

But again, who can tell? The Panthers have easily been one of the year’s big disappointments (not just for NFLbets, either) along with fellow 2017 playoff competitors, the Atlanta Falcons and Jacksonville Jaguars, and we wouldn’t be surprised one whit to see the Panthers get smoked followed by a press conference filled with choice words from a nattily-coiffed and petulant Cam Newton.

So we’re going with the easy pick: Warm weather, clear skies, Carolina desperation and lots of points: Take the over on an O/U of 50½ points or a few more.

NFLbets Best Bets record in 2018: 35-27-2.


Vikings-Seahawks on MNF: More separating of men from boys (Can we still say that in 2018?)

Monday, 10 December 2018 15:21 EST

Now that was an educational Sunday of football, a solid three tv broadcast timeslots provided an excellent preview of next month’s playoffs.

For example, we can now emphatically count out the Philadelphia Eagles (who wavered between bland and bad throughout the Dallas game), Denver Broncos (wrecked by a single TE in 30 minutes in San Francisco), the Carolina Panthers (currently suffering the hangover which follows a giddy embrace of Norv Turner) and Washington (crushed by Pee Wee League QB Eli Manning’s Giants).

We can additionally temper expectations of the Pittsburgh Steelers, Kansas City Chiefs, New Orleans Saints and possibly the Los Angeles Rams, though in this latter case, NFLbets reckons the Rams’ kryptonite is cold weather, and they’re not likely to face any such in the playoffs. NFLbets is also pumping the brakes a bit on the Houston Texans until we discover whether the loss to the Indianapolis Colts (whose stock is also rising steadily) was merely the hardly unexpected snapping of a long winning streak by a divisional rival.

On the upswing NFLbets lists the Los Angeles Chargers (scarier by the week, especially in away games) Baltimore Ravens (with a nice ATS win against the Kansas City Chiefs; the SU loss did not hurt their no. 6 standing in the AFC, as the Ravens hold all tiebreakers against the competition), Dallas Cowboys (who expect the canonization of St. Amari of Dallas-Ft. Worth) and Chicago Bears, all looking like very tough outs in the playoffs.

We’re expecting more separation of men from boys on Monday Night Football this week:

Minnesota Vikings +3 at Seattle Seahawks, over/under 46½ points

Both of the these teams sit pretty high on the ATS standings board: Going into MNF, the Seahawks stand at 7-3-2 while the Vikings are currently at 7-4-1. The Bears, Saints and Chargers – all at 9-4 ATS – are the only teams higher on the ’board. So why does it feel as though these teams are tending in opposite directions?

The Vikings are stumbling in the second half, currently on a 2-3 SU/ATS jag in which they frankly looked outclassed vs New Orleans, at Chicago and at New England – three proper playoff teams. We can remove the 2018 Minnesota Vikings to previous playoff-bound incarnations of the team due to this version’s below-average play outside the dome. After starting out at an impressive 3-0-1 ATS (2-1-1 SU) in away games, their last away win SU/ATS came in week 7 against the New York Jets, who are the New York Jets.

And here’s the key to this game: A team vulnerable on the road cannot expect to come to Seattle, one of three NFL home locales with the greatest statistically significant advantages for the home team, and surprise the Seahawks. Excepting 2017, the ’Hawks have been good for at least a 5-3 mark at home ATS every year since 2011 – and the most common results is 6-2 ATS. Right now, they’re at 3-1-2 at home. On top of this, remember that West Coast teams in prime team are an incredible 71% ATS this decade.

But hey, we don’t even really need greater trends or regression to the mean to justify belief in a big Seahawks win tonight. Since week 3, Seattle has lost only to the Chargers and Rams – not a bad pick for Super Bowl LIII, NFLbets’d say, and they’re 5-1 against teams not currently in the playoff picture, likesay Minnesota. After topping 27 points just once in the first six games, they’ve done so in five of the past six and the over is on a 4-0 streak in Seahawks games.

Best of all is that Pete Carroll and QB Russell Wilson have crafted a fascinating hybrid offense with a run-heavy playback, modern-style quarterback option plays and old-fashioned stretching the field with the occasional empty backfield. The defensive game plan has reverted to a philosophy that got the Seahawks into Super Bowls, namely lots of wysiwyg zone schemes and exceptionally few disguised coverages. NFLbets will admit it: This may not be conducive to approaching 100% objective betting, but we *like* Carroll’s coaching of Seattle in 2018.

Admission of bias aside, NFLbets quite frankly can’t conjure up the argument for anything beyond a push out of a bet on Vikings +3 here. Even the plus of a short IR list is enough for Minnesota, as CB Trae Waynes, anchor of the secondary, will miss this game due to a concussion. Sometimes it’s best to not overthink things – a sentiment with which Coach Carroll and Marshawn Lynch would certainly agree.

NFLbets Pick of the Week: Take the Seattle Seahawks -3 vs Minnesota.

NFLbets Pick of the Week record in 2018: 6-4-1.