Preseason


When is it too early to bet week 1 NFL games? Always.

Sunday, 02 August 2020 14:04 EST

Thank You for not WinningOh, that wacky John Breech at CBSsports.com! On July 30th – July 30th, wow! – Breech ran a column uniquely entitled “Way-too-early NFL Week 1 picks and best bets.” After admitting early in the piece that he has “no idea who's going to be on the field due to all the opt-outs,” Breech in fake-humble fashion puts forth three picks: Kansas City Chiefs -10 vs Houston Texans, Detroit Lions -1½ vs Chicago Bears, and Pittsburgh Steelers -3½ at New York Giants.

Now NFLbets could pick apart at least two of these predictions (Breech seems to be picking the Lions sheerly out of contrarianism) or we could rip apart the banal writing style (Seriously, can someone teach this guy that turns of phrase such as “Wait, I take that back” and “Let’s be honest” come across purely as padding the word count?), but instead there’s an important principle to be reiterated here.

That principle is NFLbets’ no. 1 rule: Do not bet in week 1 of the NFL.

Look, we know how difficult this is in any season, much less in the utterly bizarre 2020. NFL bettors wait almost seven (or this year, maybe more) months after the betting Xmas that is the Super Bowl to place another wager – and that bankroll can burn a hole in y our pocket. But we’re telling you: It’s futile.

Have you ever noticed how, whenever someone makes a prediction for the season which is instantly nullified after opening week, he/she instantly retracts those predictions and admits the mistake? Yeah, me neither – because *this never happens*. Instead every yob who pays marginal attention to the NFL makes predictions, even picking a Super Bowl winner, and then forgets about them instantly when season kickoff comes.

And this is how it should be. As a bettor, just imagine the insanity of predicting the upcoming season and then sticking with those predictions regardless of actual on-field results. Insane, right? Successful NFL betting requires adaptation week to week.

Along the same lines, would you place a bet on an NFL game without a majority of the information on the teams. With the exception of the serious NFL insiders, every bettor has extremely little information about any team in week 1. Think this is an exaggeration? Consider these results from the 2019 NFL seaso and which, if any, are surprising.

Green Bay Packers 10 at Chicago Bears 3
Tennessee Titans 43 at Cleveland Browns 13
Buffalo Bills 17 at New York Jets 16
San Francisco 49ers 31 at Tampa Bay Buccaneers 17
Oakland Raiders 24, Denver Broncos 16
Arizona Cardinals 27, Detroit Lions 27

Given what we know, these results seem pretty mundane – but this half-dozen week 1 games resulted in an 0-6 record ATS for the favorites. Combined with three games in which the losing team nevertheless covered the spread – Philadelphia Eagles 32, Washington 27; Seattle Seahawks 21, Cincinnati Bengals 20; and New Orleans Saints 30, Houston Texans 28 – and favorites were a money-burning 6-9-1 ATS to kick off the season badly for those depending on outdated information.

Sure, NFLbets will probably end up splurging on a couple of bets to lose horribly in week 1 – last season, we were dead confident about the Bears’ chances at home against the Packers – especially given how hard we’ll be jonesing by opening day. For sanity’s sake, though, keep those wagers to a minimum. Wait, I forget, you’ll want to ignore the predictions of those admitting they’re underqualified…

–written by Os Davis


After six player optouts, how are the odds on the New England Patriots…?

Wednesday, 29 July 2020 13:43 EST

As it turns out, Tom Brady leaving the New England Patriots isn’t making things easier for NFL bettors. Even taking the coronavirus out of the equation, here’s what has happened since Super Bowl LIV: Brady, to no one’s surprise, left the Patriots to join the Tampa Bay Buccaneers; New England passes on a quarterback on the 2019 NFL Draft and shortly thereafter declared Jason Stridham the starter; shockingly acquired Cam Newton; and in the past two days, team officials have announced a whopping eight optouts from this season, including LB Dont’a Hightower, OT Marcus Cannon, FS Patrick Chung and RB Brandon Bolden.

As though the trail of odds on the 2020 New England Patriots weren’t tumultuous enough, throw in a just-born proto-conspiracy theory which deduces that somehow Sith Lord/Pats head coach Bill Belichick is “masterminding” the Pats’ optouts, likely in order to land some quality free agents with lots more cap space.  Such an easily-imagined scheme is hardly worthy of attention – except this particular musing came from an NFL source and was reported by the almighty Adam Schefter.

This continual turning of events is naturally wreaking havoc with the odds offered on the Patriots winning Super Bowl LV. Directly after the Kansas City Chiefs finished off the San Francisco 49ers to end the season, Las Vegas and online sportsbooks gave lines of +400 on the Chiefs, +750 on the 49ers, +650 on the Baltimore Ravens and, despite the inevitability of Brady’s departure, just +800 odds in the “To Win Super Bowl LV” proposition bet.

Today, Kansas City is getting odds of +550 to +650 in this prop while Baltimore is listed at +600 to +650; the Ravens’ closure of gap can be attributed to their universally acknowledged strong showing in the draft, while San Francisco’s comedown to the 8/1-10/1 range in a natural slip from the default odds given the Super Bowl loser.

But New England’s odds are a relative rollercoaster – and if Vegas sportsbooks could do/were doing more volume, they’d be even more so. After opening June at an aggregate line of 14/1 at major online sportsbooks, the Patriots to win LV may today be had for anywhere from 12/1 to 20/1 – and the latest round of optouts is, as of this writing, less than 24 hours old.

So, then, to date, batting on the Patriots is a matter of faith that Belichick is in control of the dissolution of his roster, that said dissolution will be made up for, that Cam Newton can seriously play ball, that the Patriots can beat the superior offense of the Chiefs and/or Ravens in the playoffs. Not to mention the probability of the 2020 NFL season kicking off at all.

NFLbets still likes the Ravens at +650 or so is still our best bet in this prop, anyway…

--written by Os Davis


Odds on the Washington Football Team’s new name

Tuesday, 28 July 2020 12:35 EST

Washington Redhawks helmetWhat’s even more exciting than the recent announcement that ownership and management of the NFL’s Washington D.C. franchise would finally be changing its frankly embarrassing team name and logo? The opportunity to bet on the new name, of course! And since the release of the team’s mascot will take up to a mind-boggling 18 months, we’ve got lots of time to watch these odds.

Luckily, in the “New Name for the Washington NFL Team” proposition bet reportedly available at Bet Online, even the favorites start at 3/1, so this prop offers some good value bets. Below runs a breakdown of the *most realistic* possibilities on offer in the prop.

Note: NFLbets has eliminated from consideration a few of the offerings, including the Washington Memorials (10/1) and Washington Roosevelts (12/1) so as to avoid some serious sucker bets.  NFL bettors may also throw out Washington Kings (12/1) for sheer silliness as well as redundancy with the Sacramento NBA and Los Angeles NHL franchises.

Odds: New Name for the Washington NFL Team

Washington Redtails, 3/1. “Redtails” makes a lot of sense: It’s original and the word fits into the fight song, any monogrammed items and the color scheme. This choice makes so much sense that NFLbets can’t believe Snyder and his team of marketers won’t fuck this up.

Washington Presidents, 3/1. Even as recently as two years ago, NFLbets would have been all over this bet. Now? Hell, it is becoming pointedly obvious that by 2024, every president since Ronald Reagan will be collectively historically accepted fact. And not long after that, ever POTUS since FDR’ll get a big red FAIL stamped over their legacy. Then again, Snyder did dump $1 million into Trump’s inauguration gala, so maybe…

NFLbets guesses that Snyder’s shipping with the president is keeping the odds on Washington Generals (4/1) short. After all, the last time a professional football team wore the “Generals” moniker, You Know Who steinbrennered the franchise and took the league with them. Beyond this, there’s already a team named the Washington Generals.

Lincoln in a LincolnWashington Lincolns, 6/1. Yeah, sure. And the mascot will be the two prezzes driving around in a big-ass Continental, right? Wait a minute, that’s not so crazy after all…

Washington Veterans (8/1) isn’t bad, but Washington Monuments (10/1) is probably a better bet. “Washington Memorial” is an extant compound noun that’s fairly well-known. On the minus side, the Memorials would likely have one fantastically phallic mascot – but what would the Veterans’ be like…?

The obvious choice from many perspectives is the Washington Americans (10/1). The symbolism in the change itself would garner kudos from diehards and casual fans alike, and paraphernalia sales would likely be phenomenal. Who but the most ardent of racist football fans would not prefer a snappy red, white and blue logo to the dustbinned shameful old one? Again, however, this is Dan Snyder plus too many marketers; it’s won’t be “Americans.”

The Washington Redhawks (15/1) is easily the best choice on this list: It’s original, retains the “red” and is straight-up dope as fuck. The problem? This name enjoyed a brief spell of popularity in late 2017 when the Native American advocacy group Rising Hearts pulled off a prank which temporarily had some believing Snyder et al had announced the switch to the Redhawks name. Team executives were forced to publicly deny the change and to double down on the R******.

Since the prank, the “official website” of the Washington Redhawks has gone offline, but the Redhawks have enjoyed a second round of popularity this month, with many trying their hand at Washington Redhawks logo designs that well incoporate elements from the now-defunct logo. Naturally, not a chance in the universe exists that, after decades of fending off criticism about his team’s name, Snyder will allow his perceived enemies to “win” again.

 

 


Odds on which NFL team will sign Colin Kaepernick

Thursday, 18 June 2020 12:58 EST

Colin Kaepernick shirtless, looking for teamFrom the strange ethereal world that is NFL football in 2020 came a statement from commissioner Roger Goodell encouraging the league’s 32 franchises to sign once-blacklisted QB Coline Kaepernick. The odds in Kaepernick-related props were adjusted accordingly but with online sportsbooks essentially figuring that Kaep’s NFL career is kaput, the offering “Which team will sign Colin Kaepernick?” is as yet non-existent.

So hey, if NFLbets can’t wager on such a proposition bet, we’ll simply envision the prop, publish the plan online and wish it into being. (Hey, it works for the POTUS…)

In five seasons, Kaepernick played in 66 regular-season games plus six more in the postseason; his average line for this span is 189.3 yards passing to go with 1.1 TDs against 0.5 interceptions plus another 32.7 yards per game rushing.

The problem, as we were told between the kneeldowns and the collusion lawsuit brough against the NFL, was that the former Super Bowl quarterback had been away from the game too long. Hell, in week 8 of the 2017 season, Houston Texans QB DeShaun Watson went out for the season and rumor briefly had the Texans giving Kaepernick a shot. Yeah, surrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrre. When asked, then-head coach Bill O’Brien stated that Kaep was a “good football player,” he “hasn’t played football in a while.”

And that was when Kaepernick was half a season removed from the game. (For the record, the Texans went 1-8 without Watson the rest of the way. His replacements as starting QB that season, Tom Savage and T.J. Yates, never played another down in the NFL again.)

O’Brien’s attitude was apparently little more than the NFL party line, as Kaepernick’s lawsuit (and subsequent out-of-court settlement, to be completely honest) showed – but as loath as NFLbets is to admit it, three seasons out of football is likely too much of a handicap for Kaep to slide in to even the most desperate circumstances (helloooooo, Denver Broncos!) as a starter.

On the plus side, if Kaepernick does decide to play, he’ll likely be willing to do so at an affordable rate, i.e. a backup QB’s salary. After Taysom Hill and Marcus Mariota (at $8.841 million and $7.5 million, respectively), the next seven highest-paid backup NFL QBs will earn between $2.25 million and $5.25 million. All things being equal, $3.75 million for 2020 is beyond reasonable, particularly given the potential to sell more paraphernalia than any backup in NFL history.

The following are odds in NFLbets’ specialty prop bet, “Which team will sign Kaepernick first for the 2020 NFL season?”

• No team: -500. Pure pragmatism here, you understand.

• Baltimore Ravens: +200. For any player, this would be a no-brainer. Ravens offensive coordinator Greg Roman was Kaep’s OC when he twice took the San Francisco 49ers deep into the playoffs. And what 14-2 team has ever had a thinner depth chart at the offensive skill positions than the 2019 Baltimore Ravens?

• Los Angeles Chargers: +650. The Chargers have Tyrod Taylor listed as no. 1 quarterback, have no fans, get the minimum of sports media coverage in L.A./Southern Califirnia, and will depend on the incompetence of the Broncos to stay out of the AFC West cellar. Hell, if anybody in the Chargers front office actually had a pulse, Kaepernick would have been signed by now.

• Chicago Bears: 15/1
• Denver Broncos: 15/1
. Look, if neither of these teams with their incessant follies at quarterback over the past three seasons haven’t given Kaepernick as much as a second look, Goodell’s edict still won’t wake them up (so to speak).

• Jacksonville Jaguars: 18/1. If and when play in the EFL Championship resumes, Fulham FC will have to address some paucity on the roster at forward, particularly when the loaner on Anthony Knockaert expires. On the other hand, play may not resume quickly enough for Fulham to make up a 7- and 6-point gap on Leeds United and West Brom, respectively. And since this is about as much attention as owner Shahid Khan pays to the Jaguars, it’s another year of Gardner Minshu for the team’s 27 fans.

• Washington: 100/1. No way is this going to happen in Donald Trump’s capitol city – and especially not with the great Colt McCoy already on board at the bargain price of $2.25 million (and worth every penny!). But NFLbets for one would kill to see Dan Snyder extend a contract offer to Kaepernick, only for the deal to be met with refusal until the team changes the goddamn racist name already.

–written by Os Davis


Goodell encourages NFL franchises to sign Kaepernick – but will they?

Wednesday, 17 June 2020 09:01 EST

Colin Kaepernick takes a kneeNFLbets would hardly characterize the NFL’s franchise owners as “woke”, but this week the lot are finally exhibiting a modicum of social awareness – albeit seven years too late at base minimum.

History will ultimately show that on June 5, 2020, as a thousand cities and towns throughout the U.S. rang with outrage over the brutal murder of George Floyd, NFL commissioner Roger Goodell did state that “We, the National Football League, believe black lives matter. I personally protest with you and want to be part of the much-needed change in this country.”

Justifiably, some players weren’t buying that bullshit, most notably Dallas Cowboys DE Michael Bennett. Bennett described the statement as “almost alike a slap in the face”, going on to state that Goodell “knows Black Lives Matter, because without black players, the NFL wouldn't be as lucrative as it is.”

Baltimore Ravens LB Matthew Judon was among those finding the timing convenient: “I think we should have been questioning why Roger Goodell didn’t say black lives matter when he was born, or when he became commissioner or when he was re-elected commissioner.”

But hey, this is NFLbets, where we’re concerned about making money the wagering way. Can this latest round of the league’s official vacuousness be turned to the NFL bettor’s advantage?

The answer to that, happily, is yes – if somewhat indirectly.

The Return of Sports – and Colin Kaepernick
History will also show that on the June 15, 2020, ESPN Sports Center special pretentiously entitled “The Return of Sports,” Goodell publicly encouraged teams to consider signing former pariah and courtroom nemesis (not to mention a favorite subject for proposition bets in the post-PASPA world) Colin Kaepernick.

At least one big online sportsbook immediately shifted the odds in their “Odds Colin Kaepernick on Active Roster for Game 1 of the 2020 NFL season” prop after offering the same lines since the conclusion of Super Bowl LIV. By this morning, YES had gone from +500 to +300, while NO went from -900 to -500. If we presume that even during a pandemic situation, such props never draw serious sums from bettors and thus the odds rarely waver much, we may conclude that this sportsbook doesn’t think much of ol’ Kaep’s chances at a comeback.

Beyond this, factor in the reticence of 32 franchise owners not exactly busted outright for collusion, but. In addition to the party line taken by these teams which was based on the narrative that Kaepernick just wasn’t that great a QB, how many of these billionaire types (and the Green Bay Packers board, who are pretty well justified in passing on high-risk QBs for a while) will be willing to roll over and surrender alpha dog status to a dude who was crushing them in court and public opinion…?

The unavoidable (if slightly depressing) conclusion is that smart money says take the NO in the Colin Kaepernick on Active Roster for 2020. But that’s no fun; what’s fun is hedging the NO by guessing which team will bet on their own PR and sign an athlete for our times…

To be continued...


Bakari Sellers: at 6/5 to be named VP nominee, Kamala Harris is a layup

Saturday, 13 June 2020 15:27 EST

Disclaimer: NFLbets does not endorse the views or opinions stated on the Bill Simmons Podcast nor those of its host or guests. Unless they can help us win bets.

Sure, betting on the 2020 US Presidential race is something of a mindfuck right now – not only are the odds on both major candidates well too short for solid betting, the possibilities of either the historically disastrous Donald Trump’s reelection or a victory by the clearly addled out-of-touch Joe Biden, seem paradoxically equally unlikely.

Far more interesting is the proposition bet “2020 Democratic Vice-Presidential Nominee.” This prop is just now hitting a sweet spot for voters: As the Biden campaign has promised to reveal Biden’s veep choice on or around August 1, bettors need not wait too long for payout. And regardless of position on the political/ethical/moral spectra, any bettor may consider him-/herself free of negative juju elicited by wagering on the success of the opposition.

At My Bookie sportsbook, then, odds in the 2020 Democratic Vice-Presidential Nominee prop look as follows.

Kamala Harris, favorite for VP nodSen. Kamala Harris: 6/5
Rep. Val Demmings: 7/2
Mayor Keisha Lance Bottoms: 7/1
Sen. Elizabeth Warren: 9/1
Stacey Abrams: 10/1
Former NSA Susan Rice: 15/1
Gov. Gretchen Witmer: 22/1
Sen. Tammy Duckworth: 16/1
Michelle Obama: 18/1
Sen. Amy Klobuchar: 22/1
Gov. Michelle Lujan Grisham: 25/1

A few more names are listed in the odds table, but let’s presume that bets on Hillary Clinton (65/1) and Andrew Cuomo (100/1) are not to be taken seriously.

And speaking of ruling out contenders, we can toss wagers on Warren, Whitmer and Klobuchar right off the ballot. Warren and Klobuchar are both likely to land high-profile jobs in the Biden Administration, but the latter is particularly radioactive, thanks to a past record as prosecutor which shows that attorney Klobuchar performed her duties as she should have, i.e. by maintaining a tough-on-crime, easy-on-racist-cops professional attitude.

Well that kind of shit, as some thinking entity within the Biden campaign concluded, won’t prove too beneficial in 2020. Not to put too fine a point on it, but the strategy for the Democratic Party in the post-George Floyd world is simple: CAWS, as in Choose an African-american Woman, Stupid. This new reality has shortened the odds on Harris, Demmings, Bottoms and Rice in a hurry, but luckily even the table-topping Harris is still drawing longer than 1/1 odds.

And wow is that 6/5 on Harris a great bet right now. She’s drawing more positive press from certain mainstream media outlets (you know who they are) than Demmings and Rice while completely writing off Abrams, who was always seen by the DNC as too scarily militantly progressive – I mean, radical. The modicum of name recognition Harris gained from the early Democratic Presidential debates puts her ahead of Demmings and Bottoms (not to mention Whitmer and Duckworth), who are gaining mostly for reasons of geography, in the public consciousness.

Confirmations on Harris as a smart bet are everywhere. To cite the most recent example, lawyer/politician/anti-Palestinian Bakari Sellers recently appeared on the Bill Simmons Podcast – a show increasingly devoted to sports history and surface-level news talk – to promote his book My Vanishing Country, discuss race issues in America and, inevitably, weigh in on the 2020 election.

When Simmons asked Sellers if Harris was the VP nominee, Sellers replied like a good corporate Democrat, “I hope so.” Going on to state, “I think the favorites are probably Harris, Susan Rice, Val Demmings, [Michelle Lujan Gisham] and you may have Keisha Bottoms in there, but Kamala Harris is a layup for the Democratic Party.

“The caveat here, though, is that Democrats miss layups all the time.”

Indeed they do.

Luckily, the bettor can still hedge with a solid candidate or two and still turn a nice profit. For example: Cover Harris at +120 with amount 2x. Also cover Demmings at+350 for x. If you’re betting, likesay 100 Moneys, a winning bet here profits at +290 or +300. Alternatively, betting on Harris at 4x while hedging with Rice and/or Grisham at x wins a payout of +280, +380, +900, +1000, +2000 or, if covering Harris and ultimate VP nom Grisham, the max payout for this combination at +2100.

So who says electoral politics are good for nothing…?

–written by Os Davis


2020 Presidential Election: As Rome burns, Nero remains odds-on favorite to win

Friday, 12 June 2020 17:50 EST

2020 election oddsSo let’s get this straight: Capitalism is failing, and its US-based gatekeepers are grabbing everything within pocket’s reach before money disappears. American law enforcement officers are decades past the grievances filed lyrically in “Fuck The Police” and are now unashamed to kill the defenseless regardless of effect on real people. And by the way, getting breathed on in essentially any country in the whole but New Zealand could kill you.

Meanwhile, the figurehead for this clusterfuckery of all clusterfucks, one Donald J. Trump, is, according to the online sportsbooks, fixing to be reelected president of these here Untied States come national election. Just consider this: If Trumpy can indeed pull off reelection, he’ll have politically survived:

•  a pandemic, the likes of which killed the chances of sitting president Woodrow Wilson for *re-nomination by his Democratic Party* in the 2020 election;

•  sustained protest, which got Lyndon Johnson to fold before seriously campaigning in 1968;

•  obvious corruption extending to voter fraud, which got both Benjamin Harrison and Gerald Fold into the presidency and crippled their chances for another term in 1896 and 1976; and

•  a cataclysmic economic collapse, much smaller versions of which have killed the incumbent party’s chances for another term in every relevant instances since the Civil War.

And, again, the oddsmakers continue to offer shorter odds on Trump than his opponent, Joe Biden – the real reason these odds are even being discussed.

In mid-April, Odds Shark reported that “Although endorsements [from Barack Obama, Bernie Sanders and Elizabeth Warren the previous week] failed to significantly close the odds gap between Biden and the president, Biden’s odds to win the 2020 election improved from +140 to +125 week over week. Trump’s odds to win were 1/1 on March 16 but improved for the fourth consecutive week and are back up to -125.”

That wibble-wobbling of Trump’s odds in this proposition has been standard for over 12 months now – and if you’ve ever doubted that “investing” in the stock market is essentially identical to proposition betting, just watch the fluctuating Trump reelection odds as a future.

Today, Trump stock is trending longer. His odds opened up at an aggregate offer of -200 and steadily decreased as Sanders appeared headed for the Democratic Party nomination. At BetOnline.ag, these odds somehow retreated during the first two months of heavy coronavirus awareness to -180; currently, Trump’s odds are -120.

And during the time of coronavirus, we’re told that Joe Biden has locked up the party’s nomination to head up the ticket, completing what should have not been considered an improbable run. All well and good perhaps, but Biden is a standout among the uninspiring choices the Democrats have put forth since 1968. This dude makes Walter Mondale look like Bill Clinton, he makes Al Gore look like goddamn FDR, he  makes Michael Dukakis look like … ah, you get the point. You’ve seen him.

Or more accurately, you haven’t seen him. Politically speaking, Biden’s holders have managed to leverage the pandemic quarantine situation in simple fashion: Not only can they keep any appearances in which Biden may be challenged off-the-cuff, they have a baked-in excuse. The Democrats have been half-joking for he past 3½ years about how a raw vegetable would make a better president than Trump; they’ll soon get the chance to prove it so.

Nevertheless, the barely-animated Biden has seen a consistent shortening of odds since opening as high as 18/1 at online sportsbooks. You’ll be lucky to find him getting longer odds than 1/1 online. In their version of this prop, My Bookie has Trump listed at 5/6 (or -120) and Biden at 10/11 (or -110)! And in the prop “2020 Presidential Election – Winning Party”, the odds listed for both Democrats and Republicans are -120.

Putting in plainly, the bookmakers are straight-up scared shitless of either outcome.

As should we all be.


Super Sim Trubisky leads Bears to 30-24 win in Madden Madness Bowl

Monday, 01 June 2020 14:55 EST

So who needs so-called “real-life” NFL football? If Super Bowl LIII (New England Patriots 13, Los Angeles Rams 3) had been half as much fun as a single minute of play from the BetOnline’s Madden Madness Sim Bowl, no one would be wishing for that 3½ hours back.

Check out this sequence, which contained nearly as much scoring as that entire Patriots-Rams debacle. Following a Rams block of a FG attempt and a 2-point safety runback, the Rams go 3-and-out, punt. On the first play from scrimmage, Tarik Cohen gets the pitch and is smeared by Aaron Donald (for one of the former DMVP’s three sacks) to force the fumble. Bears WR Taylor Gabirel returns from his route, gets into the confused scrum of Rams defenders near the line of scrimmage, picks up the ball and takes it 89 yards for a TD.

Bears kick off, Todd Gurley is hit for a loss. And second down, Jared Goff drops back only to be crushed by big Akeem Hicks to force another fumble. Hicks himself takes it in for a second fumble recovery return TD inside of one minute of game time.

With the defense dominating, sim Chicago might’ve won the Madden Madness Bowl without their quarterback playing like the GOAT Tecmo Bowl Eagles QB, but the great Sim Mitch Trubisky delivered anyway. Sim Tru’s TD pass to Tarik Cohen to close out the first half sparked a 20-2 run by the Bears to ultimately go up 20-13 and never surrender the lead again.

Leave it to Sim Trubisky to slam the door, throw the dagger, put the game to bed and wear out other clichés in the fourth quarter. Hen notched what would be the final score of the ’Bowl, running in a TD – his fifth in the past three last Madden games! And with 1:30 to play in the fourth, Sim Trubisky took matters into his own hands at the Bears 33 on 3rd and 4, coolly running for 19 yards. For the Rams, it was all over but the crying. Final score: Chicago Bears 30, Los Angeles Rams 24.

Mitch Trubisky is awesomeNFLbets happily cleaned up on our bets to cover the Sim Bears money line (ML) – obvious, really – and the over, which covered with more than 3 minutes remaining in the third quarter.

As for Mitch’s final stat line, it read 20-of-27 for 230 yards to go with 89 yards rushing, 1 passing TD, 1 rushing TD against zero turnovers. Sim Trubisky had accounted for 319 of the Rams’ 430 total yards, yet somehow the MVP of the BetOnline Madden Madness Sim Bowl was … Akeem Hicks. No denying Hicks’s badassery here: The dude has a couple of big sacks on Goff and the TD, but dudes, it’s sim Trubisky.

Naturally, The Great Sim One told what most considered a snub in stride. This was a team win, a team Sim Lombardi Trophy, a Super Bowl for the fans But we know he’ll remember the slight. Sim Tru’s cool, but this wasn’t cool. Tell you what: When the next Madden Madness tournament comes around, Sim Trubisky’s gonna play angry. Be afraid; be very afraid.

P.S. The South’s no. 8 seed Carolina Panthers beat the Buffalo Bills in the third-place, a.k.a. consolation, game, 34-10. Like anybody cares.


Mitch Trubisky is a damn superman, has Bears in Madden Bowl against L.A. Rams

Sunday, 31 May 2020 13:54 EST

Betting on Turbisky in Sim Super BowlSim Trubisky is a goddamn superman. Virtually all other sim quarterbacks in BetOnline’s Madden Madness NFL sim football tournament had been tearing up NFL defenses – Sam Darnold, Josh Allen, Ryan Tannehill – finally showed their true colors in the Elite 8 and Final Four rounds. That wacky Madden sim engine could hardly be kept from producing one bizarre result for the Sim Bowl to be played today at 8pm ET/5pm PT.

Final Four round: North vs East
The Buffalo Bills survived the New York Jets in a 9-7 thriller (not!) in Friday’s Elite 8 round, and sim Trubisky controlled the tempo against what had been an unbeatable Green Bay defense while the Bears forced three turnovers (hey, in a CPU vs CPU All-Madden level game, that’s a lot) in a 20-8 win.

Well, on this Saturday, nothing worked for Buffalo. Sim Trubisky continued running as though he were Beattie Feathers in 1934, whipping off runs of 12 or 13 yards like nothing and sliding safe gracefully. The Bears ran up a 20-3 lead and when Khalil Mack forced the fumble out of Josh Allen in the red zone with under four minutes to play, it was over. Chicago Bears 20, Buffalo Bills 6, because after the 1990s, nobody outside of Buffalo wants the Bills in another Super Bowl.

Final Four round: West vs South
The Los Angeles Rams defense kept Patrick Mahomes’s numbers down in a 25-9 win to take the Elite 8 game, even notching a safety on the QB in a 16-point second quarter to which the Chiefs could never answer. The Carolina Panthers meanwhile finished off the South bracket thanks to a Graham Gano field goal with 9 seconds remaining. Carolina Panthers 22, Tennessee Titans 20.

Does Madden believe in teams of destiny? Since taking out the no. 1 seed New Orleans Saints, the Panthers had fit that bill. But even though sim Cam Newton had been unbelievable in this tournament, he’s no sim Mitch Trubisky. The sim Rams offense has been playing to at least 2017 levels, and the sim Rams defense may almost be ready to take on the Madden ‘07 Patriots, never mind the Madden ‘17 Patriots. Aaron Donald was an absolute beast again with three solo QB sacks, and the L.A. D allowed just two TDs all day. Los Angeles Rams 30, Cinderella Panthers 22.

So it all comes down to this:

Madden glitches are awesomeThe Bet Online Madden Sim Bowl –
Chicago Bears +2½ vs L.A. Rams, over/under 39½ points

Come on, now: How many of you chose this matchup for the first Sim Bowl? In real life, the Rams finished 9-7 in 2019, while the Bears went just 8-8 and a notable amount in both teams’ off-field personnel suffered neck strain while attempting to avoid facing reality vis-à-vis their quarterback.

But that’s real life, isn’t it? The 2019 Chicago Bears weren’t running with Sim Trubisky, a badass who doesn’t get tackled until he wants to be tackled. Mathematically precise and beautiful are the arcs of his passes, craftily sculpted are the drives he leads. In this tournament at least, Mitch Trubisky is a fucking god in the mold of a Madden 2004 Michael Vick or Tecmo Bowl’s QB Eagles. As amazing as Aaron Donald has been, no one can handle the Mitch.

Which is why NFLbets is saying take the Chicago Bears ML at +110 vs the Los Angeles Rams. AS for the over/under, you’re guess is as good as ours. After a run of 5-3 by over, the under is now on 5-1 run, with the sole over coming in the Rams-Panthers Final Four game. NFLbets supposes that if you like the sim Rams, take the over. If you like the Bears, well, there’s no telling what kind of damage Sim Trubisky will do to these unsuspecting sim Rams defenders. You’re probably still taking the over. So … take the over, we guess.

–written by Os Davis


Sim Chiefs, sim Packers avoid upsets, advance to Madden Madness Elite 8

Friday, 29 May 2020 12:29 EST

After the craziness in the previous day’s “Sweet 16” games in Bet Online’s Madden Madness sim tournament, normalcy prevailed in the bottom half of the bracket yesterday.

Highlight from Madden Madness sim tournamentIn the Sweet 16 round, the Kansas City Chiefs survived the Las Vegas Raiders, 38-35, after Chucky’s team went on a 21-0 run in the second to third quarters.

The Green Bay Packers really ran up the ol’ scoreboard on the Cleveland Browns by winning the baseball game, 13-6.

Philadelphia’s Madden players nicely simulated the real-life Eagles by taking the Buffalo Bills into overtime, only to blow their possession in overtime aaaaaaaaaand Bills victory, 23-20.

Finally, the South playoff between real-life rivals the Tennessee Titans and Houston Texans also went into overtime, with the Titans D holding the Texans to a field goal in extra time and Tennessee advancing, 34-31.

Pointspread and over/under for the Eliter 8 games are as follows.

West: Los Angeles Rams +3½ at Kansas City Chiefs, over/under 50 points
North: Chicago Bears +3 at Green Bay Packers, over/under 43½ points
South: Carolina Panthers +3 at Tennessee Titans, over/under 43½ points
East: New York Jets +2½ at Buffalo Bills, over/under 42½ points

NFLbets could tell you that underdogs are 5-2-1 ATS in the last eight games or, better yet, that the over is 6-2 in that span. We might also point out that in the Elite 8 round of May29, all home teams were playoff teams in 2019 and none of the visitors are.

But, and we can’t emphasize this strongly enough, *this isn’t real football* and Madden has never been a reliable simulator in terms of reproducing real-life results. It doesn’t mean you can’t have fun – just be sure to adjust your bets accordingly. (There’s a reason why betting is limited to results based on the scores of the game only.)

In the spirit of fun then – and not betting very many moneys – we’d say to take the over in the Rams-Chiefs, Panthers-Titans and Jets-Bills. Why? The difficulty level for the CPU vs CPU game is set for both teams at All-Madden. We’re not sure why, but putting all players on this level has benefitted quarterbacks and edge rushers the most. Just look at some of the quarterbacks left in this competition: Mitch Trubisky, Jared Goff, Sam Darnold (who may be great someday but patently was not in 2019) … and Cam Newton is no longer hobbled or sightless.

Note, too, the low variance in pointspreads for this round. If you’re covering any underdog plus the points, you may as well take the moneyline, which pays off at much better odds. But again: wager the proverbial responsibly.

–written by Os Davis