NFLbets again takes on over/under win totals and proposition betting on another division's worth of teams for the 2019 season. This time out, we're prognosticated with an eye to betting on the AFC East. All odds posted here are based in NFLbets-partnering sportsbooks. Click on the link for these offerings and much more, plus get an exclusive NFL sports betting promo codes for up to $1000 in bonuses on your first deposit.
Once again, contemplating the opportunities for betting in the AFC East next to drudgery. One of the downsides of the 21st-century New England Patriots dynasty is the sheer predictability of this division – though to be fair much of the gut-wrenching incompetence from the Miami Dolphins, New York Jets and Buffalo Bills emanates directly from the front office and sidelines.
For the record, the last time the Dolphins won AFC East was the year Bill Parcells joined teh front office there (he only lasted one more season) and Tom Brady helpfully had his ACL torn in week 1 in 2008. The last time the Patriots were eliminated in the playoffs by a division mate was by the Rex Ryan-coached New York Jets in 2010. Other than this, these franchises off the field have been revolving doors at best, shitshows at worst.
For example. Brian Flores is the new head coach in Miami; he’s the team’s sixth HC since 2010 and résumé showing 15 seasons of mostly assistant and position coach jobs in New England. (Red alert!) In Buffalo, Sean McDermott got to keep his job for a third season despite following a weird backing into the playoffs with a 6-10 mark – good thing, too, because he’s the sixth Bills HC since ’10. Finally, the Jets welcomed in Adam Gase (except ousted Mike Maccagnan, one supposes), who comes over from the Dolphins, where he followed up a 10-6 rookie season by going 13-19 over the next two seasons.
If ever there is a need to strip away history and forget the names of these teams, it’s the AFC East. The table of basic prop bets is listed below.
|AFC East||O/U wins||to win division||to win Super Bowl (current)|
|New England Patriots||8½||-500||+650|
|New York Jets||7½||6/1||65/1|
|Buffalo Bills||7½||19/2 to 10/1||80/1|
Easy part first: The Miami Dolphins will be bad
NFLbets joins the consensus in acknowledging that the most likely way for the Dolphins, 7-9 at just 5.2 Pythagorean Expectancy wins in 2018, is down. This may just be part of the downward spiral that was last season in Miami, going from 3-0 SU to 4-4 to 6-6 to 7-9.
Last year’s Dolphins couldn’t wait to flee the burning tank, with 17 of 18 potential free agents opting not to re-sign deals; gone are name players (e.g. Danny Amendola, the apparently immortal Frank Gore) , team leaders (Cameron Wake) and major contributors (Ja'Wuan James). Gone is Ryan Tennehill (42-46 in six seasons as a Miami starter), in are Josh Rosen and Ryan Fitzpatrick. Poor Rosen is out of the Arizona pan and into the Miami fire, while Fitzpatrick has been inexplicably surviving in the NFL for years on brains and borrowed time – and both of last year’s OTs left in free agency.
So yes, the Dolphins will be bad, but four wins or fewer bad? Sue, go ahead and take the Dolphins to go under 4½ wins, particularly since we like the chances of…
The New York Jets: Surely good enough for a winning record
NFLbets admits it: We’re bullish on the Jets this season; we even marked ‘em down for a Super Bowl longshot. Despite Gase and loads of unknowns, chiefly that of Sam Darnold making The Leap, which may even be limited as the dude continues to resemble Vinny “Vinterception” Testaverde 2.0. Questions remain about the viability of LeVeon Bell (though we’d strongly hedge with the philosophy that Bell’ll rip shit up for the Jets in 2019) and the effect of losing Avery Williamson from last year’s 29th-“best” defense. Geez, these guys went 4-12 in ’18.
But the truth is this roster has a serious amount of talent. In addition, the Jets was one of five teams which managed to land the league’s second-easiest schedule – and that includes two games against the Dolphins at 7-9. Take the New York Jets to go over 7½ wins.
The Buffalo Bills: Nope, sorrry, can’t do it.
Nah, no way. Can’t bet on Buffalo, over or under. We know McDermott ain’t great and could be the first head coach fired. Or they could back into the playoffs at 8-8 again. NFLbets would just rather not pay attention to the Bills in 2018.
And the elephant in the room
New England Patriots – defending champions. Again. Belichick and Brady ready for another run. Again. With an reassembled receiving corps (including even the re-resurrected Josh Gordon) and a revamped defense led by a big-name free-agent acquisition (in this case, Michael Bennett). Again.
On top of this, reports from Patriots land on draft picks RB N’Keal Harry and DE Chase Winovich are little short of gushingly delirious. Insane.
So what’s the most likely scenario for this edition of the New England Patriots? The obvious choice is that they’ll top that 11½-win mark, Brady will experience a Brees-like slowdown in the second half of the season, but they’ll regardlessly have more than enough talent, experience and guile to advance through the playoffs and into the Super Bowl, where they’ll probably squeak by the, likesay, Los Angeles Rams.
On the other hand, we’re not going to see the ending of Brady’s glory days coming. And this particular edition of the Patriots, even with Brian Hoyer at quarterback, could easily have enough to still have a winning season without Touchdown Tom altogether – but NFLbets believes that the belief in Brady as a transcendent football leader could well be enough to sink the team after a Brady injury.
In the latter scenario, too many unquantifiables are involved for the proper NFL bettor to take a chance, while with the former, well, life just doesn’t have guarantees. Even for the New England Patriots. We’re staying away from all bets regarding the Patriots and, as the man says, take these games one at a time.
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