Super Bowl Betting - Odds, Lines, Point Spreads
2021 Super Bowl Winners Odds
The most common preseason wager among NFL bettors from casual types to near-sharps is certainly the “To Win the Next Super Bowl” proposition bet. The sheer numbers say that the overwhelming majority of those betting this prop are destined to lose – after all, only one team of the 32 will win – plus bettors annually fall prey to certain fallacies. Most NFL bettors playing this prop appear to believe that players never age, that repeat championships (or even recent conference championships) happen frequently and that the NFL draft and free agency will have next to zero effect on any team’s fortunes.
This month’s value bets are pretty obvious, then: Go with the Seattle Seahawks (20/1) and Green Bay Packers (25/1) – especially if you bet on Kansas City or Dallas a few months ago (yeesh)…
Another important factor to remember is that, since the original lines were released at latest the Monday following the Super Bowl, a lot of bets are required to shift any of the lines – actually affording an excellent opportunity for value betting a few games into the season.
The following are the current odds at three online sportsbooks in the prop “To Win Super Bowl LIV.” The favorites remain, as they have since the preseason, the Kansas City Chiefs and Baltimore Ravens; all well and good, perhaps, but OL injuries will definitely impeded the Chiefs’ path to repeat whereas Baltimore looks to have two contenders within its own division in the Pittsburgh Steelers and Cleveland Browns.
Third on the table are the San Francisco 49ers, who may make a solid bet to miss the playoffs altogether; chasing the Niners are the New Orleans Saints, Tampa Bay Buccaneers, New England Patriots, Dallas Cowboys and Indianapolis Colts. Three of these are running with aging QBs any of whose arms could fall off by week 19, which may play in August at this rate; the Pats’ Cam Newton has gone from Great Story of 2020 to Another Covid Story; and the no-defense Cowboys have lost Dak Prescott for the season.
But who will be the winner in 2021?
The odds below on this page were updated after Week 6 on October 15, 2020:
Click here to read more about the currect Odds to win Super Bowl 55 (2021)
2021 Super Bowl Betting Props to come…
Whether you’re ready to bet on Super Bowl LV (20210) or want to bet the NFL regular season,
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Super Bowl betting is the biggest NFL betting even of the year! Who doesn't want to bet on the Super Bowl this year? To make a winning bet, NFL Bets.com has all the latest betting odds, lines, point spreads and predictions that you'll ever need as well as a list of latest, best NFL betting sites to place your bets online.
How big is the Super Bowl betting? Big enough so that it’s impossible to hyperbolize. Check out these numbers: the NFL claims up to 1 billion viewers tune in annually, and running a TV commercial during the game’s U.S. broadcast costs a world-be advertiser $5 million (or $166,666.66 per second).
And while the product-hockers seek to appeal to that massive audience, said audience is chowing down lustily: Americans typically eat 30 million pounds of chips, 13.2 million pounds of avocado and 8 million pounds of popcorn.
The stunning popularity of betting on the Super Bowl
How popular is Super Bowl betting? Incredibly popular: Super Bowl betting is, for a large fraction of Americans, the only time to wager on professional sports all year. Super Bowl futures including “To Win MVP” and individual player props are played by hundreds of thousands of bettors who typically stick to point spreads and over/unders week to week.
Once-bizarre Super Bowl lines on game-unrelated matters like “Length of the National Anthem Rendition” and “Result of the Opening Coin Toss” have become traditional plays among even casual bettors, and Super Bowl spreads are debated by those who've actually literally played Super Bowl lines zero times in their life.
Betting on the Super Bowl draws more wagering than on any other event worldwide. NFLbets dares say that the fundamental Super Bowl futures bet, i.e. “To Win the Super Bowl”, is the world's single-most bet-upon prop during the year. While most Super Bowl betting is done in the United States and Canada, but gamblers in nations such as Australia and Great Britain are starting to discover the marvel of Super Bowl betting – kinda like the way Americans re-discover World Cup betting every four years…
Over $140 million was wagered on Super Bowl LII at Las Vegas sportsbooks, but lest you believe that figure is overly impressive, consider that unofficial estimates from the American Gaming Association (AGA) place the total number of bets at $4.76 billion. This means the ostensible gambling capital of the U.S. was covering less than 2.95% of the total take. That’s huge.
Despite that seemingly small sub-3% take in Las Vegas, the truth is that Super Bowl betting is significant enough to support some small- to mid-sized sportsbooks throughout the year. Pre-Supreme Court decision of 2018, an estimated 25% or more of *all* online bets were made on the Super Bowl. So, yes, people do bet on Super Bowl online.
On top of everything else great about betting on the NFL’s Super Bowl, the sheer amount of bets, lines, odds and proposition bets on the Super Bowl are absolutely wonderful. Scoring by quarter, player props, game MVP props, Will The First Score Be a Safety, Will Anyone Score a Safety, the opening coin flip – all this and so much more are available on the (long) two weeks leading up to the Super Bowl.
Super Bowl betting is easy, fun, maybe even lucrative
If you’ve ever been to Las Vegas (or soon in the future, your local betting shop or casino), you know how much fun, insanity and winnings may be had when betting the Super Bowl. Of course, if you think that’s nuts, just wait until the Las Vegas Raiders are playing in Super Bowl LV in 2021…
Betting on the Super Bowl is easy and you don't even have to go to Las Vegas to place your Super Bowl bets. All you have to do is find out about the best super bowl betting odds and NFL super bowl betting lines, here, on NFLBets.com, then register at one of the "NFL betting sites" in our list of approved NFL sports betting sites.
Friday, 05 March 2021 13:41 EST
First, the disclaimer: Yes, NFLbets is well aware it’s too early to be making serious wagers on the “To Win Super Bowl LVI” proposition bet, but that’s not stopping the speculation nor the concomitant shifting of odds is response. And after a second big name-player transaction, the teams of the NFC West are seeing some action months before the NFL draft, even.
Odds on the four NFC West teams to win Super Bowl LVI are as follows, with the current line running first followed by the lines posted directly after the conclusion of LV:
Los Angeles Rams: 12/1, 15/1
San Francisco 49ers: 16/1, 14/1
Seattle Seahawks: 25/1, 22/1
Arizona Cardinals: 28/1, 40/1
Odds in the “To Win the NFC West” prop are:
Los Angeles Rams: +190
San Francisco 49ers: +200
Seattle Seahawks: +300
Arizona Cardinals: +475
Now NFLbets admits that we threw a few moneys at the Rams in the Super Bowl prop on the Monday following the Tampa Bay championship win, with the calculus that the team as is plus a better-than-Goff quarterback could well be enough to handle both the aging and the upstarts of the NFC. Within 48 hours, McVey ditched Jared Goff for Matthew Stafford and the prop-bet line underwent the appropriate shrinkage.
Then the Cardinals went and snagged J.J. Watt, who probably eschewed potentially better competitive situations in Cleveland and Buffalo to stay in warmer climes. And speaking of heading south, so too did Arizona’s odds, with bettors clearly crediting Watt with an outsized contribution in advance.
NFLbets realizes that over the past 10 seasons, J.J. has been the NFL’s top pass rusher statistically but pragmatically speaking, he’d’ve been hard pressed to find a division with better OLs top to bottom: A season-ending article at Pro Football Focus ranked all four NFC West lines between 3rd (the Rams) and 14th (Seattle). And since 2015, Watt’s played just two full seasons (2018 and 2020) with stats nowhere near his All-Pro levels in the first half of the 10s; he’s managed to top 7 points in the approximate value (AV) metric just once in the past five seasons.
The point: Maybe you like the chances of Murray-to-Hopkins becoming a top QB-WR battery or that Watt will help shore up an inconsistent Cardinals defense, but can one defensive lineman, particularly one maybe six years past his peak, realistically increase a team’s Super Bowl chances by 12%?
NFLbets would say Cardinals backers would be better advised to simply take ’em to win the NFC West at +475: Russell Wilson has intimated his dissatisfaction with his lack of support, which we’re taking as a harbinger of an underwhelming 2020 season for the Seahawks, while the 49ers may be giving up on giving up on Jimmy Garoppolo despite the confidence he’s not inspiring in San Francisco. With this many divisional question marks, Watt could indeed be juuuuuust enough to push Arizona past L.A. for a playoff home game – depending on what Stafford has to say about things…
–written by Os Davis
Saturday, 06 February 2021 16:33 EST
Here’s the thing: Sentimentality and winning money in NFL betting are essentially mutually exclusive. NFLbets can say (write?) with confidence that no bettor ever became prosperous wagering on feelings and hunches. The proper bettor must place the emphasis on the numbers, the trends, the facts and information.
Yet for this Super Bowl, virtually every pregame show, ESPN gabfest or gambling-centered podcast since the conference championship games, the would-be Nostradami are pleased to inform that LV will be a great game, a close game and the Buccaneers might just win because Tom Brady. Get caught up in too much of the noise and the mantra of “Brady the GOAT, Brady the GOAT, Brady the GOAT” threatens to obfuscate rational thought about the point spread, which on Bowl Eve still reads
Tampa Bay Buccaneers +3 at Kansas City Chiefs
NFLbets implores bettors to stay sane, particularly as regards a certain player wearing the number 12 jersey. When considering how to bet the actual outcome of Super Bowl LV, we’d advise trying to strip away the names and labels. Consider:
• In getting to the final game, Kansas City first ran up a 19-3 lead against Cleveland before holding on for a win with a perennial backup at QB; they then smoked the Buffalo Bills, who had been looking like the AFC’s hottest team. Tampa Bay meanwhile let the 7-9 Washington FT stay within a score in the wild-card round, took care of business against a crippled New Orleans side and got past Green Bay because Matt LaFleur forgot how math works.
• In the NFC championship, Aaron Jones fumbled early in the 3rd quarter to allow the Bucs to earn a 28-10 lead after a single 8-yard TD pass. Thereafter, the Buccaneers starting quarterback went 6 for 13 for 70 yards – 29 yards of which came on a single reception to a guy considered the greatest TE ever to play the game – and 3 interceptions.
• The Chiefs are currently on a 31-6 SU (21-15-1 ATS) run since kickoff 2019; they’re also on a 25-2 SU run, with one of the two losses coming with second-stringers starting in week 17 of this season; the closest comparison in recent NFL history would be the 2003-04 New England Patriots’ mark of 34-4 SU (28-8-2 ATS). Further, in this two-year span, the Chiefs are 6-1 SU (5-2 ATS) when favored by 3½ points or less and are 28-4 SU (19-13-1 ATS) in all games when favored.
• And from the What Happened to this Statistic Department: For his career, Andy Reid-coached teams are now a ridiculous 24-4 SU after a bye week and 16-13 SU/18-11 ATS in the postseason. With the Chiefs, he’s 6-2 SU (5-3 ATS) including 5-0 SU/4-1 ATS since 2019..
You can see how NFLbets – or even those merely considering these general trends – would favor Kansas City in this game. Of course, there is the actual football to take into account. Putting aside the mystique of Touchdown Tom, the real advantage(s) Tampa Bay has in Super Bowl LV is all in the trenches.
The truth is that the Chiefs defense ranks 31st against the run by the DVOA metric and dead last in the red zone; not exactly the stats you want when facing the twosome of Leonard Fournette and Ronald Jones, guys who have been damaging unprepared run Ds all 2020.
And then there’s the well-publicized shuffling of the K.C. offensive line, beginning with left tackle where Mike Remmers moves from RT in the wake of Eric Fisher’s injury and affecting four of the five spots. Center Austin Reiter is the sole starter in the same position from last year’s Super Bowl win. But recall that a) the Chiefs get a bye week, b) Reid himself played on the BYU OL, and c) Chiefs line coach Andy Heck is an 8-year veteran of the Chiefs and considered one of the NFL’s best. NFLbets believes Kansas City has time to formulate a plan, even one that entails stopping Jason Pierre-Paul and compadres.
But hey, forget the facts if you must. You want a compelling narrative? Try this: In Super Bowl LV, we’ve got a generational matchup of Hall of Fame-level quarterbacks that might only be compared to Namath vs. Unitas, Bradshaw vs. Staubach, Manning vs. Wilson – now recall whose team won those matchups. This very game may be the flashpoint moment, the turning point, the changing of the guard from the Brady/Roethlisberger/Rodgers lot (and peers like the Mannings, Brees and Rivers already gone) eclipsed by a surprisingly massive wave of exciting young QBs starting with two-time Super Bowl MVP Patrick Mahomes and including Josh Allen, DeShaun Watson, Kyler Murray, Joe Burrow, Justin Herbert, Lamar Jackson, etc.
And with a win, the fledgling would-be GOAT will have led his team to this first Super Bowl championship repeat since who else but those 2003-04 Patriots. Who, except for maybe Gisele Bundchen, not appreciate such a narrative? Take the Kansas City Chiefs -3 vs the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and enjoy the history of the moment.
–written by Os Davis
Friday, 05 February 2021 14:06 EST
NFLbets’ favorite Super Bowl proposition bet is certainly the good old “Super Bowl MVP” market: Winning this prop on a perceived longshot can save your Super Bowl or can recoup lotsa losses on a well-played hedge. With two ultra-hyped quarterbacks drawing most of the action, Super Bowl LV has a number of scintillating opportunities for the wagering. We’ll start with the obvious, namely…
• Patrick Mahomes, 20/23
• Tom Brady, 2/1. At 2/1, Brady is getting longer odds in this prop than in any Super Bowl he’s played in after 2002; he’s therefore an excellent double-down bet if you’re backing Tampa Bay as well as a great loss-recouping hedge for Kansas City bettors. The danger in betting Brady for MVP is if he more closely resembles the game-managing, defense-dependent Peyton Manning of Super Bowl 50 rather than the unafraid airing-it-out Peyton manning of Super Bowl XLI – though we have the former possibility covered as well; see below.
By contrast, Mahomes at lower than 1/1 really only makes a decent hedge if you’re firmly in the Buccaneers camp. Given that the next-nearest Chief in the MVP prop opened at 10/1 odds, the sportsbooks are essentially telegraphing that a Kansas City win most likely results in a second straight Mahomes MVP title. With Chiefs -3½ at -105 and Chiefs ML at -170, if you believe in a last-second 3-point or less win by his team, the Mahomes MVP bet is a great play. Even better for Chiefs backers, though, are the other two studs K.C. is bringing…
• Tyreek Hill, 17/2 (down from 10/1)
• Travis Kelce, 21/2 (up from 10/1). Considering the stats these two have put up in the playoffs, in week 11 versus these Buccaneers in Tampa Bay, and essentially all season, these odds are well too long.
The betting reflets this take; the odds posted herein are courtesy My Bookie. Certainly not too many other sportsbooks are seeing a swing of -150, but Hill is clearly getting some love from the betting public. Hill is a decent value bet here based on his record-breaking performance in the week 11 game, but one can’t help imagine that Bruce Arians will cook up double teams and serious coverage on Tyreek, particularly in the first half so as to remove that part of the playbook for Kansas City.
But then there’s Kelce who spent the entire AFC Championship Game against Buffalo burning double- and even triple-coverages to the tune of 13 receptions, 118 yards receiving and two TDs; Hill meanwhile was good for 152 yards on 8 catches versus Buffalo. For the Super Bowl, the return of Sammy Watkins can only make things more difficult.
So if Kelce is such a great bet in the Super Bowl MVP prop, why are his odds increasing? Common wisdom seems to be that, with the Chiefs having to rejigger the offensive line somewhat for this game, Kelce will be deployed as a blocker. After his 2020 season as essentially the NFL’s most productive receiver plus Andy Reid’s point-a-minute philosophy since coaching Mahomes, this doesn’t feel like the most plausible scenario – nor does Kelce becoming the first-ever TE to win this MVP seem far-fetched at all.
• Devon White, 25/1 to 30/1
• Jason Pierre-Paul, 30/1 to 80/1. So say Brady does throw a game akin to Peyton Manning’s in Super Bowl 50, and say the Chiefs’ stapled together offensive line succumbs to Tampa Bay’s relentless pass rush early and often. With Brady likely to divide up targets as per normal with these Bucs while Leonard Fournette and Ronald Jones similarly split the bulk of the carries in a, likesay, 20-17 win, two or three key plays from a defender could win him the award.
Pierre-Paul will certainly receive much of the media’s and Kansas City OL’s attention throughout the first half in lining up against Mike Remmers, who moves from RT to LT in the wake of Eric Fisher’s injury. Early into the Bowl, we should see quite clearly the effect this matchup will have on the game’s complexion. A couple of sacks on Mahomes to go with a turnover or even a forced turnover will certainly win some MVP voters over after a low-scoring game.
Devon White has meanwhile been on a Von Milleresque trajectory in the season’s second half and straight through three playoff games. And while statistically the Buccaneers D has been average, at this point in the season, Tampa Bay may even be considered a defense-first team. White’s main competition here in a Bucs win – even a low-scoring win – would, ironically, be Brady.
Only 10 defensive players have won the Super Bowl MVP award, and only four in the 21st century. Of these four, only one (Malcolm Smith in Super Bowl XLVIII) had a top-10 quarterback (Russell Wilson) at his team’s helm. Smith’s Seahawks turned in perhaps the most dominant performance by a defense in the ’Bowl, however, in shutting out the Denver Broncos for the game’s first 45 minutes. Figure the Chiefs will be good even on their worst Sunday for at least 9 points; after all, with Mahomes at quarterback, these Chiefs have scored fewer than 21 points just twice – and average 35.2 points per postseason game. Brady might not have to do more than throw a TD pass and make no mistakes, even in another 13-3 snoozer…
– written by Os Davis
Tuesday, 02 February 2021 18:07 EST
Yesterday NFLbets confidently asserted that our favorite bet for Super Bowl LV is the over, despite the quite high 56½-point offering. In fact, just once has the over been higher at Super Bowl kickoff time: For Super Bowl LI between the Atlanta Falcons and New England Patriots.
Nevertheless we’re sticking to our over bet if only for the sake of cheering for scoring. As much fun as betting on the under can be, a 13-3 Super Bowl or even a jittery first half ending in 10-10 usually makes for a bummer of a Super Bowl unless you’re talking about two killer defenses, which neither the Tampa Bay Buccaneers nor Kansas City Chiefs truly bring to this game.
So NFLbets is expecting touchdowns, many touchdowns indeed – we’re looking for so many TDs that we’re concentrating our player proposition betting on “Anytime Touchdown” props. The best thing about these bets is that they’re utterly independent of pointspread and money line betting; in our case, it doesn’t matter much who wins (remember, you can tease both teams with either over or under and have both teams getting points: The Chiefs go to +2½ or +3 and the Bucs to +9 or +9½.
Who will score touchdowns in Super Bowl LV? NFLbets likes…
Travis Kelce, -175
In the last 10 games, Kelce’s averaging 8.6 receptions and 112.4 yards per to go with 9 TDs; against Buffalo in the AFC Championship game, the TE put on a crazy show with 13 catches on 15 targets for 118 yards and 2 TDs – while drawing double coverage on most plays. Kelce is enjoying a run at TE that perhaps no one other than possibly, well … Rob Gronkowski has ever pulled off. The Buccaneers statistically are reasonably decent against TEs at 12th overall in fantasy points surrendered and Kelce turned in an average performance – for him – against Tampa Bay in week 12 with eight catches for 80 yards, but the return of Sammy Watkins opens up the deep ball opportunities, good news for Kelce as well as…
Tyreek Hill, -175
As fantastic as Hill has been in 2020, he enjoyed a career day in the week 12 game with 13 receptions for an incredible 269 yards and 3 TDs, the latter as many as the Buccaneers entire offense managed in the game. We absolutely cannot expect Hill to produce anything like that – half as many yards plus 1 touchdown would be impressive enough in a ’Bowl – but Hill went for 172 yards against Buffalo when Kelce and he were essentially the sole options against a top-10 passing defense. With Watkins back, the Bucs D is forced to chose their poison, and Tyreek has looked deadly in two playoff games thus far.
Leonard Fournette, +120
For a guy who appears untacklable at times, Fourneette hasn’t exactly blown stat junkies’ minds in his first season with Tampa Bay. He’s topped 100 total yards just thrice this season (albeit in two of the past three games), but NFLbets likes Fournette to score here for three reasons: Sheer volume of carries, i.e. he’s had 12 or more carries in four of the past six games; his 6 TDs in the past six games; and, most compellingly, the Kansas City D’s league-worst performance in the red zone. How difficult is it to imagine a scenario in which Brady benefits from a questionable pass-interference call in the end zone, followed by a 1-yard plunge by Fournette? Right.
Rob Gronkowski, +260
In weeks 6 through 16 in his reunification with Brady, Gronkowski was good for 3 catches on just under 6 targets per game with 7 TDs to boot. In the past four games, however, he’s totaled just 4 catches. So why does NFLbets like this bet so much? Here’s the theory: At this point in his career, Cameron Brate is a well better receiving TE but few still block as well as Gronk. In the NFC Championship game, he played four snaps, threw three killer blocks and caught one key pass for 29 yards. We believe that there is a special part of the playbook earmarked for Gronkowski and that Brady will be looking for the safety valve, possibly early and probably late. After all, the man was Brady’s best receiver – with 106 yards on 8 receptions – the last time these teams met…
Monday, 01 February 2021 09:23 EST
NFLbets is thiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiis close to calling Super Bowl LV prediction-proof. Numbers, trends and rationality all wither under the white-hot brilliance of Tom Brady’s career. Near as NFLbets can tell, the no. 1 reason in betting the Bucs with (current) lines of
Tampa Bay Buccaneers +3½ vs Kansas City Chiefs, over/under 56½ points
Is “Never bet against Tom Brady.” Not exactly the hard numbers we’d rather see, and there are certainly arguments for, likesay, betting on Patrick Mahomes and his all-star offense coached by Andy Reid, but we’ll save those for last, because this one’s probably a Super Bowl when we’ll be doing very little pointspread betting relative to props – and the point total.
NFLbets may as well not bury the lead: Take the over on an O/U of 56½ points or even wait until it sinks to 56 at this rate. Crazy that a single $2.3 million bet on the Buccaneers at BetMGM made headlines but couldn’t budge Kansas City -3½, while the over/under has shed ½ to 1 point in the first week since the conference championship games. NFLbets is clearly paddling against the tide on this one.
But hey, since after the wild-card round NFLbets has been pushing the over, no matter the number, regardless of matchup – and for good reason. With four teams remaining in the postseason, not one sported a defense that was top 10 against the pass, against the run or in defensive DVOA. “Defense wins championships”? In 2021, defense may be optional for the winner.
Kansas City is particularly egregious in one statistical area: Though going 10th in points allowed, the Chiefs ranked dead last in red-zone defense – this is what you’re giving Brady? Add to this a well below-average defense – they rank 21st in yards allowed despite seeing just the 19th-most attempts – facing off against the increasingly unstoppable Leonard Fournette, and NFLbets expects the Chiefs to be surrendering some points.
But if Tampa Bay is scoring, we can certainly bet on Kansas City keeping pace. Until last week, Mahomes & Co. had done a 7-1 SU/0-8 ATS run which was costly for a lot of gamblers but also sent a distinct message, i.e. the 2020 Chiefs can play any style and always does enough to win. Purely pragmatically speaking, K.C. has scored 27 or more in 5 of the last 9, 9 of the last 14.
The knock, if any, on the Chiefs offense for the second half of the season has been no running game. Fair enough but geez, what will the Bucs D do against Travis Kelce and Tyreek Hill, who caught for a combined 22 catches for 290 yards and two TDs. Hell, NFLbets’ latest theory is that the Chiefs allow themselves to get behind 1 or 1½ touchdowns just so they have to throw for the rest of the game.
The point: Both teams are going to throw a lot, both could well be quite successful, and points will be scored. NFLbets may be optimistic here just two years removed from New England Patriots 13, Los Angeles Rams 3 but we’re thinking barnburner. In week 7, these teams played to 27-24 in Tampa. Would, likesay, Buccaneers 30-27 or Chiefs 30-27 be an unreasonable result? So we’re also saying bet YES in the Both Teams score over 24½ points proposition bet.
One final note. With an over/under this high and a game apparently too close to predict securely, teasers look great. Betting Tampa Bay and the under, for example, gets you lines of Bucs +9½ and under 63 points, while Kansas City and the over gets Chiefs +2½ and over 50½, both extremely tempting bets – so tempting NFLbets covered both…
–written by Os Davis
Friday, 11 December 2020 14:55 EST
For those NFL bettors who still have illusions about the futility of wagering on the “To Win the Super Bowl” proposition bet before opening week, NFLbets presents the current odds on each of the 32 teams – or rather the 28 teams still mathematically in the playoff hunt with four games to go.
In seeking out good value on Super Bowl odds, NFLbets must quickly backtrack on speculating on the Super Bowl prop in the posteason – if you’re covering a prohibitive, dynastic-type odds-on favorite. With the Steelers falling off the undefeated wagon and no NFC team really distinguishing itself, the Kansas City Chiefs repeating as champion seems inevitable. Those with the foresight to invest in the Chiefs at +650 in the preseason are probably gawking at their tickets daily with Andy Reid’s boys now getting +220 and falling.
On the flipside are the Baltimore Ravens; after a 14-2 season in 2019, the Ravens had the same line in the prop as did the Chiefs. Now that Baltimore is struggling to keep within the top 7 seeds, even 25/1 odds feel like a sucker bet.
Right now, the best value can probably be found in the Buffalo Bills and Pittsburgh Steelers. These two have seen their lines shrink by about half, but can still be had at 14/1 and 15/1, respectively – and those odds will likely shift after the teams meet on Sunday.
And once again, those who bet on the previous year’s Super Bowl loser have got to be kicking themselves. Given the confidence Kyle Shanahan showed in his quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo down the stretch and into the postseason, the preseason odds of 10/1 on the San Francisco 49ers were already too high – and the current 100/1 line is far more fitting.
Reminder for next season: Just seven Super Bowl losers returned to the Super Bowl the following season (four not including the Buffalo Bills) and only two went on to win the Super Bowl the following year: The Dallas Cowboys in Super Bowl VI and the New England Patriots in LIII. Therefore, the Super Bowl runner-up by sheer mathematics should start the year at no better than 26/1…
Odds to win the 2021 Super Bowl:
Friday, 14 August 2020 15:53 EST
Pandemic conditions have jiggered the NFL bettor’s mojo for 2020, and NFLbets has been feverishly – don’t worry, it’s not that kind of feverish – been seeking any sort of indicator to help us adjust wagering accordingly. And we discovered an avenue to explore thanks to the Bill Simmons Podcast.
Earlier this week, Simmons chatted with sportswriter/reporter Kevin Clark about the upcoming NFL season, specifically with regard to the recent cancellation of the college football season and just how this potentially quite wacky season might play out. About 21 minutes into the ’cast, Clark gets Simmons attention – and ours – when riffing on what he believes the secret to winning in 2020 will be:
“I think teams will adjust [to a lack of crowd noise] and they’ll have more dummy calls,” Clark speculated. “I remember when the put the microphone on the center or guard around 2012, and then teams started coaching their quarterbacks or even linemen to start yelling out more dummy calls, because the TV couldn’t pick up on that stuff. And so you’re gonna have the smart teams trying to figure out how to use that to their advantage and speak gibberish.”
He continued, “I have this theory that it’s going to be a very simplified season. So if you have Julio Jones or you have Odell Beckham or you have Michael Thomas, you’re just gonna hand them the ball and the defense won’t be able to tackle them because [of less practice]. When I was running that by folks this weekend, they said, ‘That’s kind of it, but it’s not the whole way. If you have continuity, you want to make things as complicated as possible.’ The teams that are going to win this year are the teams that have been together for four, five, six years, they almost have a sixth sense of where everyone’s going to be and they can run complicated schemes against a bunch of defenses that aren’t going to be able to be complicated.”
Now, that’s something NFLbets can work with. Let’s assume 2020 is an above-average season for scoring (or at least for a good first half of the season as defenses catch up) and that the experience of the offense is key. With these premises, NFLbets would suggest adjusting expectations for the following teams upward. (As always, odds listed in parentheses are those currently on offer in MyBookie’s “To Win Super Bowl 55” proposition bet.)
The Atlanta Falcons (33/1) are Exhibit A in Clark’s argument, and with good reason. Going into 2020, Matt Ryan is the NFL’s longest-tenured starting QB for his present team, and Julio Jones has been his no. 1 receiver for the past nine seasons. As recently as ’18, Jones led the NFL in receiving yards per game and while the Falcons have been through a few OCs since Ryan’s debut in ’08, the offense has nine times been top-10 in total yardage and has never been lower-ranked than no. 16. Here’s to thinking the Falcons will keep defenses hustling all season long.
As long as miracles weren’t expected, Las Vegas Raiders (50/1) backers should be at least pleased with the job Jon Gruden has managed with the Black-and-Silver since becoming head coach. The famed “Quarterback Whisperer” may not have transformed Derek Carr into a shiny new Bradymobile, but most would certainly acknowledge that Carr has certainly very nearly had his talent maximized under Chucky’s tutelage – and this while losing Amari Cooper, then the Raiders’ biggest name on offense.
Continuity among the receivers isn’t great, but Vegas returns all their top-two RBs in Josh Jacobs and Jalen Richard, who were both good for over 8.0 yards per catch in ’19, plus last year’s no. 1 WR Tyrell Williams and last season’s breakout TE Darren Waller. Combine these guys with the league’s youngest roster yet relatively low turnover rate of the past three seasons and Vegas could surprise within a fairly weak division.
NFLbets is including the New Orleans Saints (10/1) on this list – with an asterisk. In each of the past three seasons, the Saints have been unhappily bounced from the playoffs due to a fluke play and/or blown call. And since 2008, Peyton ‘n’ Brees have enjoyed an offense top-10 in yardage every season and top-10 in scoring every season except ’10, when they ranked 11th. And superstars Alvin Kamara and Michael Thomas show no signs of slowing.
Why a timid asterisk, then? It’s Drew Brees, man. NFLbets realizes it’s heretical to call out an aging quarterback before he self-acknowledges his breaking-down body. (Remember Emperor Peyton Manning’s new clothes for the 2015 season? Yeesh.) The truth is that the Saints passing offense managed to top 300 yards just five times in 17 games last season and went a measly 1-3 against playoff teams. New Orleans certainly has the talent to win games in 2020, but one should consider the possibility that Brees won’t necessary be pulling rabbits from hats at the frequency he’s used to.
Finally, as though they needed it, the Kansas City Chiefs (6/1) are worthy of an uptick on this basis as well. Superduperstud QB Patrick Mahomes plays like a man far more veteran in the NFL, and that full season of bench-riding behind Alex Smith is still producing dividends. And factoring into the pandemic conditions the very scary fact that LeSean McCoy and his 646 total yards represents the sole departure from the Kansas City offense for 2020. Odds of 6/1 on these guys might be too long in the time of coronavirus…
–written by Os Davis
Tuesday, 11 August 2020 13:36 EST
As NFLbets has bemoaned recently, a sharp learning curve will make betting on the NFL in 2020 quite a bit trickier during at very least the first quarter to third of the season. In an attempt to read the tea leaves on what should prove the oddest football season since 1987, NFLbets is again testing out some factors which might(…?) help bettors in ’20.
Since the biggest contast between the no-crowds model of Major League Baseball and the NFL versus the bubble model of the NBA and NBA is travel, aspects of home field are especially worthy of attention in the upcoming season. (All odds noted are those listed in MyBookie’s “Super Bowl 55 – To Win” proposition bet.)
Consider if you will the effets of…
• No home crowds. MLB and NBA games may run with an undercurrent of piped-in fan noise overlaid with business-as-usual incidental music, but no apparent difference is made to the players. Whether or not home crowds make a difference, the “Los Angeles” Chargers (40/1) stand to benefit. With maybe (maybe!) a handful of fans at every contest in L.A., the Chargers offense has to resort to tactics like the silent count at home, as was the case in week 15 against the Minnesota Vikings last season. (For the record, the 1-point underdog Chargers were smoked SU/ATS by the Vikes, 39-10.)
You’d also think that the Seattle Seahawks (18/1) would be hampered by the lack of their infamous loud-ass “12th Man” as well: The Carroll & Wilson Seahawks are an impressive 53-16 SU and a decent 38-30-1 ATS in all home games since 2012. But last season? Seattle was just 4-4 SU/2-6 ATS and didn’t even cover a spread at home until week 9. In 2020, we might put more weight on the actual travel visiting teams are making to play the ’Hawks.
• Homefield advantage/disadvantage. With about a half-dozen games each under their belts, NBA teams are noticing a couple of trends among players: The lack of travel results in more energy, and the bubble state results in more focus. The NFL is taking a page from MLB on scheduling, i.e. not changing a thing, and thus inherent advantages for certain teams should as the Denver Broncos (40/1), who went a nice 5-3 SU/ATS at home, but 2-6 SU/4-4 ATS in away games.
• And, inevitably, weather conditions. In the time of coronavirus, far too many self-styled experts are barging into opinionating on coronavirus; NFLbets will hardly add to the wad by predicting a timeframe for a vaccine and such. However, we should recall some remedial science. To wit: Covid-19 is an airborne virus like, say, influenza or the common cold. A person becomes more susceptible (or, in the case of the coronavirus, *even* more susceptible) to viruses when his/her immune system is tasked with other matters. Natural defenses can be lowered, for example, by exposure to colder temperatures; this is why most folks are well more likely to get a cold in the wintertime.
So in 2020, we’ll have professional athletes testing their physical limits in a high-contact sport in, likesay, Foxborough, Green Bay, Chicago, Pittsburgh or Buffalo in December with, for all we know, various spikes in cases throughout the U.S. Again, we’re no medical experts, but we’d say more exposure to extreme cold, the more positive tests the team is likely to experience.
We’d start reducing our likelihood of not only the aforementioned teams, but any who play in such climes enough times – so probably the entire AFC East and AFC North straight away. Meanwhile, the big winner in the warm-weather sweepstakes may be – would you know it? – Tom Brady’s Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+850 and falling). TB and TB play at Denver in week 1, at Chicago in week 3 and at the New York Giants in week 8 on November 2; beyond these, all Bucs games are in Tampa, south of the Mason-Dixon Line or indoors. And make of this what you will, but Brady-led teams playing outdoors in temperatures of 60⁰F or higher are 77-40 SU; not including games at Miami, that rises to 69-31 for a .690 winning percentage.
Nothing like old folks retiring to California, eh…?
Sunday, 09 August 2020 12:56 EST
Preseason predictions for the NFL – particularly those not involving Belichick ‘n’ Brady’s New England Patriots – are usually a crapshoot, but in 2020? NFL bettors might as well be reading goat entrails to get a bead on what might happen in the would-be season of coronavirus. Nevertheless, as the season appears inevitable to occur, NFLbets has got to do *some*thing in the prognosticatory area.
So with just about one month to go before the 2020 NFL season kicks off, NFLbets today considers the list of player optouts; hey, maybe it’s meaningful. All odds listed are those of MyBookie in the “Super Bowl 55 – To Win” proposition bet.
A total of 66 NFL players opted out of the 2020 season; these 66 will have their contracts deferred one year and receive compensation of $150,000. At one end of the spectrum are the post-Brady Patriots (12/1), who had a whopping eight optouts, well ahead of the Cleveland Browns (30/1) with five. While New England lost players across the board and shed enough cap space to lead to conspiracy theories, Cleveland’s name players in general stayed aboard. If you’re digging on either team, the optouts shouldn’t bettors in these cases.
And just in case NFL bettors needed more encouragement to bet on the Patriots, New England’s AFC East “rivals” are again inadvertently assisting the Dark Empire’s chances in 2020: The Miami Dolphins (70/1) and New York Jets (90/1) may have taken the most significant hits in optouts.
Miami went 5-11 with Ryan Fitzpatrick at the helm in 2019; for ’20, the Fins bring in Tua Tagovailoa and/or Josh Rosen to quarterback – but they’ll be doing so without WRs Allen Hurns and Albert Wilson. The Jets already enter the season with a bottom-3 offense and a reasonably good defense, but will be without C.J. Mosley, who has played a total of two games for New York since acquired in the 2019 offseason.
Meanwhile, three teams reported zero optouts: the Pittsburgh Steelers (22/1), Atlanta Falcons (33/1) and “Los Angeles” Chargers (40/1). NFLbets believes that all three team’s chances for winning Super Bowl LV are enhanced at least a sliver.
NFLbets has been liking Atlanta’s chances for some time, with the New Orleans Saints (with an over/under win total of 10½) and Tampa Bay Buccaneers (9½) are entering the season at least slightly overrated by sportsbooks and the general public. And the Chargers have been playing in front of hostile crowds at “home” for two seasons now, so playing in what feels like a neutral site every week can hardly hurt their chances. The Steelers are the biggest question mark of the three, with presumed stiff divisional competition and an aging QB, but if you’re betting on Pittsburgh, you’re probably an unmovable fan, anyway.
What else can be divined from these optouts? Probably not much. Consider the list of teams other than the Jets who lost three players to optout: the Kansas City Chiefs (6/1), Dallas Cowboys (14/1), Indianaplis Colts (20/1), Las Vegas Raiders (50/1), Detroit Lions (65/1), New York Giants (90/1) and Jacksonville Jaguars (175/1). Even if you were told that any of these three teams had had three starters opting out (none do), would desire be increased/decreased to cover them?
Yeah, us neither.
–written by Os Davis
Wednesday, 29 July 2020 13:43 EST
As it turns out, Tom Brady leaving the New England Patriots isn’t making things easier for NFL bettors. Even taking the coronavirus out of the equation, here’s what has happened since Super Bowl LIV: Brady, to no one’s surprise, left the Patriots to join the Tampa Bay Buccaneers; New England passes on a quarterback on the 2019 NFL Draft and shortly thereafter declared Jason Stridham the starter; shockingly acquired Cam Newton; and in the past two days, team officials have announced a whopping eight optouts from this season, including LB Dont’a Hightower, OT Marcus Cannon, FS Patrick Chung and RB Brandon Bolden.
As though the trail of odds on the 2020 New England Patriots weren’t tumultuous enough, throw in a just-born proto-conspiracy theory which deduces that somehow Sith Lord/Pats head coach Bill Belichick is “masterminding” the Pats’ optouts, likely in order to land some quality free agents with lots more cap space. Such an easily-imagined scheme is hardly worthy of attention – except this particular musing came from an NFL source and was reported by the almighty Adam Schefter.
This continual turning of events is naturally wreaking havoc with the odds offered on the Patriots winning Super Bowl LV. Directly after the Kansas City Chiefs finished off the San Francisco 49ers to end the season, Las Vegas and online sportsbooks gave lines of +400 on the Chiefs, +750 on the 49ers, +650 on the Baltimore Ravens and, despite the inevitability of Brady’s departure, just +800 odds in the “To Win Super Bowl LV” proposition bet.
Today, Kansas City is getting odds of +550 to +650 in this prop while Baltimore is listed at +600 to +650; the Ravens’ closure of gap can be attributed to their universally acknowledged strong showing in the draft, while San Francisco’s comedown to the 8/1-10/1 range in a natural slip from the default odds given the Super Bowl loser.
But New England’s odds are a relative rollercoaster – and if Vegas sportsbooks could do/were doing more volume, they’d be even more so. After opening June at an aggregate line of 14/1 at major online sportsbooks, the Patriots to win LV may today be had for anywhere from 12/1 to 20/1 – and the latest round of optouts is, as of this writing, less than 24 hours old.
So, then, to date, batting on the Patriots is a matter of faith that Belichick is in control of the dissolution of his roster, that said dissolution will be made up for, that Cam Newton can seriously play ball, that the Patriots can beat the superior offense of the Chiefs and/or Ravens in the playoffs. Not to mention the probability of the 2020 NFL season kicking off at all.
NFLbets still likes the Ravens at +650 or so is still our best bet in this prop, anyway…
--written by Os Davis
Super Bowl odds FAQ
As stated above, the “To Win the Super Bowl” futures bet is ultra-popular, particularly amid the hype of preseason games and predictions cluttering the internet. Obviously no magic formula for choosing the Super Bowl champion exists because Las Vegas would be bankrupt otherwise. However, remembering a few simple facts ‘n’ stats can certainly help in betting Super Bowl spreads and props.
Directly below, NFLbets answers a handful of the more commonly-asked FAQs about Super Bowl odds and betting online…
Who is going to win the Super Bowl?
It’s impossible to make generalizations here, but NFL Bets can tell you which team is probably *not* going to win the Super Bowl: The team with the shortest odds to do so when the season starts. Since the 2001 season, only 10 of 24 preseason favorites or co-favorites even made the Super Bowl; five of these were New England Patriots teams. Those 10 teams went just 3-7. By sheer numbers, then, the preseason Super Bowl odds-on favorite ultimately wins the title just 1 in 8 times.
Who is going to win the Super Bowl ATS?
The outright winner of the Super Bowl through number LIII is 44-6-2, not including the New England Patriots-Seattle Seahawks ’Bowl, which went off as a “pick ’em.” In fact, on a single 20-year run between Super Bowls XXII and XLIV, the SU winner was a relatively poor 13-5-2 ATS. So if you want to make ML bet, you might as well bet the team you’ve got ATS – and vice versa.
How many Super Bowls has each NFL team won ATS?
The all-time leaders in amassing Super Bowl wins are the Pittsburgh Steelers and New England Patriots (with six each); the San Francisco 49ers and Dallas Cowboys (five each); and the Green Bay Packers and New York Giants (four each). However, at 6-5 SU, the Patriots are only 4-7 ATS. The best bet in the Super Bowl historically has got to be the 49ers at 5-1 ATS; too bad they haven’t won one since Super Bowl XXIX…
Who has more Super Bowl wins, AFC or NFC? And against the spread?
Going into Super Bowl LIV, the NFC/NFL has a 27-26 edge over the AFC/AFL in straight-up wins. Against the Spread (ATS), the NFC does slightly better, at 27-24-2.
Where can I legally bet on the Super Bowl?
For US bettors, this depends on your state of residence to some extent. Early legalizers/decriminalizers of sports and NFL betting such as New Jersey, Delaware, New Mexico and others had physical locations for betting in place when new laws went into effect. As for online football betting, check out our partnering sportsbooks, which are all legal to play on in the United States.
Where can I bet on the Super Bowl online?
Nowadays, those sports sites owned or managed by companies which publicly trade in New York or London will block folks residing in certain states from even *seeing* odds on NFL games. All other sites are fine to play on. Naturally, NFLbets recommends wagering on our partnering casinos; see our pages for great sportsbooks accepting US players.
How do you bet on Super Bowl props?
Once you’ve registered at an NFL betting website or arrive at a “real life” sportsbook, Super Bowl props should be well-publicized and thus super easy to find. In both instances, betting on a Super Bowl proposition bet is the same as doing so for any other bet. Important note: Virtually every sportsbook online or off- offers a handful of weird crossover multi-sport props which are a heck of a lot of fun.
Does Vegas lose money on the Super Bowl?
Because of the nature of the point spread, the money line and the odds offered on other bets, it is extremely rare for Las Vegas and all bookmakers to lose money on any sporting event, never mind the Super Bowl. As an example, Las Vegas was said to take a major hit on the New England Patriots in Super Bowl LIII, with 65%-plus of bets on the Patriots minus the points, but more than made of for this loss on the over/under, which had 68& of bettors taking the over, which did not hit.