Super Bowl Betting - Odds, Lines, Point Spreads


2021 Super Bowl Winners Odds

The most common preseason wager among NFL bettors from casual types to near-sharps is certainly the “To Win the Next Super Bowl” proposition bet. The sheer numbers say that the overwhelming majority of those betting this prop are destined to lose – after all, only one team of the 32 will win – plus bettors annually fall prey to certain fallacies. Most NFL bettors playing this prop appear to believe that players never age, that repeat championships (or even recent conference championships) happen frequently and that the NFL draft and free agency will have next to zero effect on any team’s fortunes.

This month’s value bets are pretty obvious, then: Go with the Seattle Seahawks (20/1) and Green Bay Packers (25/1) – especially if you bet on Kansas City or Dallas a few months ago (yeesh)…

Another important factor to remember is that, since the original lines were released at latest the Monday following the Super Bowl, a lot of bets are required to shift any of the lines – actually affording an excellent opportunity for value betting a few games into the season.

The following are the current odds at three online sportsbooks in the prop “To Win Super Bowl LIV.” The favorites remain, as they have since the preseason, the Kansas City Chiefs and Baltimore Ravens; all well and good, perhaps, but OL injuries will definitely impeded the Chiefs’ path to repeat whereas Baltimore looks to have two contenders within its own division in the Pittsburgh Steelers and Cleveland Browns.

Third on the table are the San Francisco 49ers, who may make a solid bet to miss the playoffs altogether; chasing the Niners are the New Orleans Saints, Tampa Bay Buccaneers, New England Patriots, Dallas Cowboys and Indianapolis Colts. Three of these are running with aging QBs any of whose arms could fall off by week 19, which may play in August at this rate; the Pats’ Cam Newton has gone from Great Story of 2020 to Another Covid Story; and the no-defense Cowboys have lost Dak Prescott for the season.

But who will be the winner in 2021? The odds were updated on October 15, 2020:

 2021 Super Bowl Outright Winners Odds 
Kansas City Chiefs +350 +350 +350
Baltimore Raven +650 +700 +650
San Francisco 49ers +900 +900 +900
New Orleans Saints +1200 +1200 +1200
Tampa Bay Buccaneers +1400 +1400 +1400
New England Patriots +1600 +1600 +1600
Dallas Cowboys +2000 +2000 +2000
Indianapolis Colts +2000 +2000 +2000
Seattle Seahawks +2000 +2000 +2000
Buffalo Bills +2200 +2200 +2200
Philadelphia Eagles +2200 +2200 +2200
Green Bay Packers +2500 +2500 +2500
Pittsburgh Steelers +2500 +2500 +2500
Tennessee Titans +2800 +2800 +2800
Minnesota Vikings +2800 +2800 +2800
Arizona Cardinals +3300 +3300 +3300
Cleveland Browns +3300 +3300 +3300
Minnesota Vikings +3300 +3300 +3300
Atlanta Falcons +4000 +4000 +4000
Chicago Bears +4000 +4000 +4000
Houston Texans +4000 +4000 +4000
Los Angeles Rams +4000 +4000 +4000
Denver Broncos +5000 +5000 +5000
Las Vegas Raiders +5000 +5000 +5000
Los Angeles Chargers +5000 +5000 +5000
Carolina Panthers +8000 +8000 +8000
Detroit Lions +8000 +8000 +8000
Miami Dolphins +8000 +8000 +8000
New York Giants +8000 +8000 +8000
New York Jets +8000 +8000 +8000
Jacksonville Jaguars +10000 +10000 +10000
Cincinnati Bengals +15000 +15000 +15000


2021 Super Bowl Betting Props to come…

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NFL Super Bowl Betting Odds, Lines and Point Spreads

Super Bowl betting is the biggest NFL betting even of the year! Who doesn't want to bet on the Super Bowl this year? To make a winning bet, NFL Bets.com has all the latest betting odds, lines, point spreads and predictions that you'll ever need as well as a list of latest, best NFL betting sites to place your bets online.

How big is the Super Bowl betting? Big enough so that it’s impossible to hyperbolize. Check out these numbers: the NFL claims up to 1 billion viewers tune in annually, and running a TV commercial during the game’s U.S. broadcast costs a world-be advertiser $5 million (or $166,666.66 per second).

And while the product-hockers seek to appeal to that massive audience, said audience is chowing down lustily: Americans typically eat 30 million pounds of chips, 13.2 million pounds of avocado and 8 million pounds of popcorn.


The stunning popularity of betting on the Super Bowl

How popular is Super Bowl betting? Incredibly popular: Super Bowl betting is, for a large fraction of Americans, the only time to wager on professional sports all year. Super Bowl futures including “To Win MVP” and individual player props are played by hundreds of thousands of bettors who typically stick to point spreads and over/unders week to week.

Once-bizarre Super Bowl lines on game-unrelated matters like “Length of the National Anthem Rendition” and “Result of the Opening Coin Toss” have become traditional plays among even casual bettors, and Super Bowl spreads are debated by those who've actually literally played Super Bowl lines zero times in their life.

Betting on the Super Bowl draws more wagering than on any other event worldwide. NFLbets dares say that the fundamental Super Bowl futures bet, i.e. “To Win the Super Bowl”, is the world's single-most bet-upon prop during the year. While most Super Bowl betting is done in the United States and Canada, but gamblers in nations such as Australia and Great Britain are starting to discover the marvel of Super Bowl betting – kinda like the way Americans re-discover World Cup betting every four years…

Over $140 million was wagered on Super Bowl LII at Las Vegas sportsbooks, but lest you believe that figure is overly impressive, consider that unofficial estimates from the American Gaming Association (AGA) place the total number of bets at $4.76 billion. This means the ostensible gambling capital of the U.S. was covering less than 2.95% of the total take. That’s huge.

Despite that seemingly small sub-3% take in Las Vegas, the truth is that Super Bowl betting is significant enough to support some small- to mid-sized sportsbooks throughout the year. Pre-Supreme Court decision of 2018, an estimated 25% or more of *all* online bets were made on the Super Bowl. So, yes, people do bet on Super Bowl online.

On top of everything else great about betting on the NFL’s Super Bowl, the sheer amount of bets, lines, odds and proposition bets on the Super Bowl are absolutely wonderful. Scoring by quarter, player props, game MVP props, Will The First Score Be a Safety, Will Anyone Score a Safety, the opening coin flip – all this and so much more are available on the (long) two weeks leading up to the Super Bowl.


Super Bowl betting is easy, fun, maybe even lucrative

If you’ve ever been to Las Vegas (or soon in the future, your local betting shop or casino), you know how much fun, insanity and winnings may be had when betting the Super Bowl. Of course, if you think that’s nuts, just wait until the Las Vegas Raiders are playing in Super Bowl LV in 2021

Betting on the Super Bowl is easy and you don't even have to go to Las Vegas to place your Super Bowl bets. All you have to do is find out about the best super bowl betting odds and NFL super bowl betting lines, here, on NFLBets.com, then register at one of the "NFL betting sites" in our list of approved NFL sports betting sites.


If offensive continuity is king in NFL 2020, here are four teams to consider betting

Friday, 14 August 2020 15:53 EST

Betting on pandemic NFL footballPandemic conditions have jiggered the NFL bettor’s mojo for 2020, and NFLbets has been feverishly – don’t worry, it’s not that kind of feverish – been seeking any sort of indicator to help us adjust wagering accordingly. And we discovered an avenue to explore thanks to the Bill Simmons Podcast.

Earlier this week, Simmons chatted with sportswriter/reporter Kevin Clark about the upcoming NFL season, specifically with regard to the recent cancellation of the college football season and just how this potentially quite wacky season might play out. About 21 minutes into the ’cast,  Clark gets Simmons attention – and ours – when riffing on what he believes the secret to winning in 2020 will be:

“I think teams will adjust [to a lack of crowd noise] and they’ll have more dummy calls,” Clark speculated. “I remember when the put the microphone on the center or guard around 2012, and then teams started coaching their quarterbacks or even linemen to start yelling out more dummy calls, because the TV couldn’t pick up on that stuff. And so you’re gonna have the smart teams trying to figure out how to use that to their advantage and speak gibberish.”

He continued, “I have this theory that it’s going to be a very simplified season. So if you have Julio Jones or you have Odell Beckham or you have Michael Thomas, you’re just gonna hand them the ball and the defense won’t be able to tackle them because [of less practice]. When I was running that by folks this weekend, they said, ‘That’s kind of it, but it’s not the whole way. If you have continuity, you want to make things as complicated as possible.’ The teams that are going to win this year are the teams that have been together for four, five, six years, they almost have a sixth sense of where everyone’s going to be and they can run complicated schemes against a bunch of defenses that aren’t going to be able to be complicated.”

Now, that’s something NFLbets can work with. Let’s assume 2020 is an above-average season for scoring (or at least for a good first half of the season as defenses catch up) and that the experience of the offense is key. With these premises, NFLbets would suggest adjusting expectations for the following teams upward. (As always, odds listed in parentheses are those currently on offer in MyBookie’s “To Win Super Bowl 55” proposition bet.)

The Atlanta Falcons (33/1) are Exhibit A in Clark’s argument, and with good reason. Going into 2020, Matt Ryan is the NFL’s longest-tenured starting QB for his present team, and Julio Jones has been his no. 1 receiver for the past nine seasons. As recently as ’18, Jones led the NFL in receiving yards per game and while the Falcons have been through a few OCs since Ryan’s debut in ’08, the offense has nine times been top-10 in total yardage and has never been lower-ranked than no. 16. Here’s to thinking the Falcons will keep defenses hustling all season long.

As long as miracles weren’t expected, Las Vegas Raiders (50/1) backers should be at least pleased with the job Jon Gruden has managed with the Black-and-Silver since becoming head coach. The famed “Quarterback Whisperer” may not have transformed Derek Carr into a shiny new Bradymobile, but most would certainly acknowledge that Carr has certainly very nearly had his talent maximized under Chucky’s tutelage – and this while losing Amari Cooper, then the Raiders’ biggest name on offense.

Continuity among the receivers isn’t great, but Vegas returns all their top-two RBs in Josh Jacobs and Jalen Richard, who were both good for over 8.0 yards per catch in ’19, plus last year’s no. 1 WR Tyrell Williams and last season’s breakout TE Darren Waller. Combine these guys with the league’s youngest roster yet relatively low turnover rate of the past three seasons and Vegas could surprise within a fairly weak division.

NFLbets is including the New Orleans Saints (10/1) on this list – with an asterisk. In each of the past three seasons, the Saints have been unhappily bounced from the playoffs due to a fluke play and/or blown call. And since 2008, Peyton ‘n’ Brees have enjoyed an offense top-10 in yardage every season and top-10 in scoring every season except ’10, when they ranked 11th. And superstars Alvin Kamara and Michael Thomas show no signs of slowing.

Why a timid asterisk, then? It’s Drew Brees, man. NFLbets realizes it’s heretical to call out an aging quarterback before he self-acknowledges his breaking-down body. (Remember Emperor Peyton Manning’s new clothes for the 2015 season? Yeesh.) The truth is that the Saints passing offense managed to top 300 yards just five times in 17 games last season and went a measly 1-3 against playoff teams. New Orleans certainly has the talent to win games in 2020, but one should consider the possibility that Brees won’t necessary be pulling rabbits from hats at the frequency he’s used to.

Finally, as though they needed it, the Kansas City Chiefs (6/1) are worthy of an uptick on this basis as well. Superduperstud QB Patrick Mahomes plays like a man far more veteran in the NFL, and that full season of bench-riding behind Alex Smith is still producing dividends. And factoring into the pandemic conditions the very scary fact that LeSean McCoy and his 646 total yards represents the sole departure from the Kansas City offense for 2020. Odds of 6/1 on these guys might be too long in the time of coronavirus…

–written by Os Davis


Defining homefield advantage (if any) for NFL betting in '20

Tuesday, 11 August 2020 13:36 EST

Betting NFL 2020: homefield advantage?As NFLbets has bemoaned recently, a sharp learning curve will make betting on the NFL in 2020 quite a bit trickier during at very least the first quarter to third of the season. In an attempt to read the tea leaves on what should prove the oddest football season since 1987, NFLbets is again testing out some factors which might(…?) help bettors in ’20.

Since the biggest contast between the no-crowds model of Major League Baseball and the NFL versus  the bubble model of the NBA and NBA is travel, aspects of home field are especially worthy of attention in the upcoming season. (All odds noted are those listed in MyBookie’s “Super Bowl 55 – To Win” proposition bet.)

Consider if you will the effets of…

•  No home crowds. MLB and NBA games may run with an undercurrent of piped-in fan noise overlaid with business-as-usual incidental music, but no apparent difference is made to the players. Whether or not home crowds make a difference, the “Los Angeles” Chargers (40/1) stand to benefit. With maybe (maybe!) a handful of fans at every contest in L.A., the Chargers offense has to resort to tactics like the silent count at home, as was the case in week 15 against the Minnesota Vikings last season. (For the record, the 1-point underdog Chargers were smoked SU/ATS by the Vikes, 39-10.)

You’d also think that the Seattle Seahawks (18/1) would be hampered by the lack of their infamous loud-ass “12th Man” as well: The Carroll & Wilson Seahawks are an impressive 53-16 SU and a decent 38-30-1 ATS in all home games since 2012. But last season? Seattle was just 4-4 SU/2-6 ATS and didn’t even cover a spread at home until week 9. In 2020, we might put more weight on the actual travel visiting teams are making to play the ’Hawks.

•  Homefield advantage/disadvantage. With about a half-dozen games each under their belts, NBA teams are noticing a couple of trends among players: The lack of travel results in more energy, and the bubble state results in more focus. The NFL is taking a page from MLB on scheduling, i.e. not changing a thing, and thus inherent advantages for certain teams should as the Denver Broncos (40/1), who went a nice 5-3 SU/ATS at home, but 2-6 SU/4-4 ATS in away games.

•  And, inevitably, weather conditions. In the time of coronavirus, far too many self-styled experts are barging into opinionating on coronavirus; NFLbets will hardly add to the wad by predicting a timeframe for a vaccine and such. However, we should recall some remedial science. To wit: Covid-19 is an airborne virus like, say, influenza or the common cold. A person becomes more susceptible (or, in the case of the coronavirus, *even* more susceptible) to viruses when his/her immune system is tasked with other matters. Natural defenses can be lowered, for example, by exposure to colder temperatures; this is why most folks are well more likely to get a cold in the wintertime.

So in 2020, we’ll have professional athletes testing their physical limits in a high-contact sport in, likesay, Foxborough, Green Bay, Chicago, Pittsburgh or Buffalo in December with, for all we know, various spikes in cases throughout the U.S. Again, we’re no medical experts, but we’d say more exposure to extreme cold, the more positive tests the team is likely to experience.

We’d start reducing our likelihood of not only the aforementioned teams, but any who play in such climes enough times – so probably the entire AFC East and AFC North straight away. Meanwhile, the big winner in the warm-weather sweepstakes may be – would you know it? – Tom Brady’s Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+850 and falling). TB and TB play at Denver in week 1, at Chicago in week 3 and at the New York Giants in week 8 on November 2; beyond these, all Bucs games are in Tampa, south of the Mason-Dixon Line or indoors. And make of this what you will, but Brady-led teams playing outdoors in temperatures of 60⁰F or higher are 77-40 SU; not including games at Miami, that rises to 69-31 for a .690 winning percentage.

Nothing like old folks retiring to California, eh…?


66 players opt out of NFL season: Does it affect the odds?

Sunday, 09 August 2020 12:56 EST

NFL optouts and bettingPreseason predictions for the NFL – particularly those not involving Belichick ‘n’ Brady’s New England Patriots – are usually a crapshoot, but in 2020? NFL bettors might as well be reading goat entrails to get a bead on what might happen in the would-be season of coronavirus. Nevertheless, as the season appears inevitable to occur, NFLbets has got to do *some*thing in the prognosticatory area.

So with just about one month to go before the 2020 NFL season kicks off, NFLbets today considers the list of player optouts; hey, maybe it’s meaningful. All odds listed are those of MyBookie in the “Super Bowl 55 – To Win” proposition bet.

A total of 66 NFL players opted out of the 2020 season; these 66 will have their contracts deferred one year and receive compensation of $150,000. At one end of the spectrum are the post-Brady Patriots (12/1), who had a whopping eight optouts, well ahead of the Cleveland Browns (30/1) with five. While New England lost players across the board and shed enough cap space to lead to conspiracy theories, Cleveland’s name players in general stayed aboard. If you’re digging on either team, the optouts shouldn’t bettors in these cases.

And just in case NFL bettors needed more encouragement to bet on the Patriots, New England’s AFC East “rivals” are again inadvertently assisting the Dark Empire’s chances in 2020: The Miami Dolphins (70/1) and New York Jets (90/1) may have taken the most significant hits in optouts.

Miami went 5-11 with Ryan Fitzpatrick at the helm in 2019; for ’20, the Fins bring in Tua Tagovailoa and/or Josh Rosen to quarterback – but they’ll be doing so without WRs Allen Hurns and Albert Wilson. The Jets already enter the season with a bottom-3 offense and a reasonably good defense, but will be without C.J. Mosley, who has played a total of two games for New York since acquired in the 2019 offseason.

Meanwhile, three teams reported zero optouts: the Pittsburgh Steelers (22/1), Atlanta Falcons (33/1) and “Los Angeles” Chargers (40/1). NFLbets believes that all three team’s chances for winning Super Bowl LV are enhanced at least a sliver.

NFLbets has been liking Atlanta’s chances for some time, with the New Orleans Saints (with an over/under win total of 10½) and Tampa Bay Buccaneers (9½) are entering the season at least slightly overrated by sportsbooks and the general public. And the Chargers have been playing in front of hostile crowds at “home” for two seasons now, so playing in what feels like a neutral site every week can hardly hurt their chances. The Steelers are the biggest question mark of the three, with presumed stiff divisional competition and an aging QB, but if you’re betting on Pittsburgh, you’re probably an unmovable fan, anyway.

What else can be divined from these optouts? Probably not much. Consider the list of teams other than the Jets who lost three players to optout: the Kansas City Chiefs (6/1), Dallas Cowboys (14/1), Indianaplis Colts (20/1), Las Vegas Raiders (50/1), Detroit Lions (65/1), New York Giants (90/1) and Jacksonville Jaguars (175/1). Even if you were told that any of these three teams had had three starters opting out (none do), would desire be increased/decreased to cover them?

Yeah, us neither.

We think.

–written by Os Davis


After six player optouts, how are the odds on the New England Patriots…?

Wednesday, 29 July 2020 13:43 EST

As it turns out, Tom Brady leaving the New England Patriots isn’t making things easier for NFL bettors. Even taking the coronavirus out of the equation, here’s what has happened since Super Bowl LIV: Brady, to no one’s surprise, left the Patriots to join the Tampa Bay Buccaneers; New England passes on a quarterback on the 2019 NFL Draft and shortly thereafter declared Jason Stridham the starter; shockingly acquired Cam Newton; and in the past two days, team officials have announced a whopping eight optouts from this season, including LB Dont’a Hightower, OT Marcus Cannon, FS Patrick Chung and RB Brandon Bolden.

As though the trail of odds on the 2020 New England Patriots weren’t tumultuous enough, throw in a just-born proto-conspiracy theory which deduces that somehow Sith Lord/Pats head coach Bill Belichick is “masterminding” the Pats’ optouts, likely in order to land some quality free agents with lots more cap space.  Such an easily-imagined scheme is hardly worthy of attention – except this particular musing came from an NFL source and was reported by the almighty Adam Schefter.

This continual turning of events is naturally wreaking havoc with the odds offered on the Patriots winning Super Bowl LV. Directly after the Kansas City Chiefs finished off the San Francisco 49ers to end the season, Las Vegas and online sportsbooks gave lines of +400 on the Chiefs, +750 on the 49ers, +650 on the Baltimore Ravens and, despite the inevitability of Brady’s departure, just +800 odds in the “To Win Super Bowl LV” proposition bet.

Today, Kansas City is getting odds of +550 to +650 in this prop while Baltimore is listed at +600 to +650; the Ravens’ closure of gap can be attributed to their universally acknowledged strong showing in the draft, while San Francisco’s comedown to the 8/1-10/1 range in a natural slip from the default odds given the Super Bowl loser.

But New England’s odds are a relative rollercoaster – and if Vegas sportsbooks could do/were doing more volume, they’d be even more so. After opening June at an aggregate line of 14/1 at major online sportsbooks, the Patriots to win LV may today be had for anywhere from 12/1 to 20/1 – and the latest round of optouts is, as of this writing, less than 24 hours old.

So, then, to date, batting on the Patriots is a matter of faith that Belichick is in control of the dissolution of his roster, that said dissolution will be made up for, that Cam Newton can seriously play ball, that the Patriots can beat the superior offense of the Chiefs and/or Ravens in the playoffs. Not to mention the probability of the 2020 NFL season kicking off at all.

NFLbets still likes the Ravens at +650 or so is still our best bet in this prop, anyway…

--written by Os Davis


Super Sim Trubisky leads Bears to 30-24 win in Madden Madness Bowl

Monday, 01 June 2020 14:55 EST

So who needs so-called “real-life” NFL football? If Super Bowl LIII (New England Patriots 13, Los Angeles Rams 3) had been half as much fun as a single minute of play from the BetOnline’s Madden Madness Sim Bowl, no one would be wishing for that 3½ hours back.

Check out this sequence, which contained nearly as much scoring as that entire Patriots-Rams debacle. Following a Rams block of a FG attempt and a 2-point safety runback, the Rams go 3-and-out, punt. On the first play from scrimmage, Tarik Cohen gets the pitch and is smeared by Aaron Donald (for one of the former DMVP’s three sacks) to force the fumble. Bears WR Taylor Gabirel returns from his route, gets into the confused scrum of Rams defenders near the line of scrimmage, picks up the ball and takes it 89 yards for a TD.

Bears kick off, Todd Gurley is hit for a loss. And second down, Jared Goff drops back only to be crushed by big Akeem Hicks to force another fumble. Hicks himself takes it in for a second fumble recovery return TD inside of one minute of game time.

With the defense dominating, sim Chicago might’ve won the Madden Madness Bowl without their quarterback playing like the GOAT Tecmo Bowl Eagles QB, but the great Sim Mitch Trubisky delivered anyway. Sim Tru’s TD pass to Tarik Cohen to close out the first half sparked a 20-2 run by the Bears to ultimately go up 20-13 and never surrender the lead again.

Leave it to Sim Trubisky to slam the door, throw the dagger, put the game to bed and wear out other clichés in the fourth quarter. Hen notched what would be the final score of the ’Bowl, running in a TD – his fifth in the past three last Madden games! And with 1:30 to play in the fourth, Sim Trubisky took matters into his own hands at the Bears 33 on 3rd and 4, coolly running for 19 yards. For the Rams, it was all over but the crying. Final score: Chicago Bears 30, Los Angeles Rams 24.

Mitch Trubisky is awesomeNFLbets happily cleaned up on our bets to cover the Sim Bears money line (ML) – obvious, really – and the over, which covered with more than 3 minutes remaining in the third quarter.

As for Mitch’s final stat line, it read 20-of-27 for 230 yards to go with 89 yards rushing, 1 passing TD, 1 rushing TD against zero turnovers. Sim Trubisky had accounted for 319 of the Rams’ 430 total yards, yet somehow the MVP of the BetOnline Madden Madness Sim Bowl was … Akeem Hicks. No denying Hicks’s badassery here: The dude has a couple of big sacks on Goff and the TD, but dudes, it’s sim Trubisky.

Naturally, The Great Sim One told what most considered a snub in stride. This was a team win, a team Sim Lombardi Trophy, a Super Bowl for the fans But we know he’ll remember the slight. Sim Tru’s cool, but this wasn’t cool. Tell you what: When the next Madden Madness tournament comes around, Sim Trubisky’s gonna play angry. Be afraid; be very afraid.

P.S. The South’s no. 8 seed Carolina Panthers beat the Buffalo Bills in the third-place, a.k.a. consolation, game, 34-10. Like anybody cares.


Mitch Trubisky is a damn superman, has Bears in Madden Bowl against L.A. Rams

Sunday, 31 May 2020 13:54 EST

Betting on Turbisky in Sim Super BowlSim Trubisky is a goddamn superman. Virtually all other sim quarterbacks in BetOnline’s Madden Madness NFL sim football tournament had been tearing up NFL defenses – Sam Darnold, Josh Allen, Ryan Tannehill – finally showed their true colors in the Elite 8 and Final Four rounds. That wacky Madden sim engine could hardly be kept from producing one bizarre result for the Sim Bowl to be played today at 8pm ET/5pm PT.

Final Four round: North vs East
The Buffalo Bills survived the New York Jets in a 9-7 thriller (not!) in Friday’s Elite 8 round, and sim Trubisky controlled the tempo against what had been an unbeatable Green Bay defense while the Bears forced three turnovers (hey, in a CPU vs CPU All-Madden level game, that’s a lot) in a 20-8 win.

Well, on this Saturday, nothing worked for Buffalo. Sim Trubisky continued running as though he were Beattie Feathers in 1934, whipping off runs of 12 or 13 yards like nothing and sliding safe gracefully. The Bears ran up a 20-3 lead and when Khalil Mack forced the fumble out of Josh Allen in the red zone with under four minutes to play, it was over. Chicago Bears 20, Buffalo Bills 6, because after the 1990s, nobody outside of Buffalo wants the Bills in another Super Bowl.

Final Four round: West vs South
The Los Angeles Rams defense kept Patrick Mahomes’s numbers down in a 25-9 win to take the Elite 8 game, even notching a safety on the QB in a 16-point second quarter to which the Chiefs could never answer. The Carolina Panthers meanwhile finished off the South bracket thanks to a Graham Gano field goal with 9 seconds remaining. Carolina Panthers 22, Tennessee Titans 20.

Does Madden believe in teams of destiny? Since taking out the no. 1 seed New Orleans Saints, the Panthers had fit that bill. But even though sim Cam Newton had been unbelievable in this tournament, he’s no sim Mitch Trubisky. The sim Rams offense has been playing to at least 2017 levels, and the sim Rams defense may almost be ready to take on the Madden ‘07 Patriots, never mind the Madden ‘17 Patriots. Aaron Donald was an absolute beast again with three solo QB sacks, and the L.A. D allowed just two TDs all day. Los Angeles Rams 30, Cinderella Panthers 22.

So it all comes down to this:

Madden glitches are awesomeThe Bet Online Madden Sim Bowl –
Chicago Bears +2½ vs L.A. Rams, over/under 39½ points

Come on, now: How many of you chose this matchup for the first Sim Bowl? In real life, the Rams finished 9-7 in 2019, while the Bears went just 8-8 and a notable amount in both teams’ off-field personnel suffered neck strain while attempting to avoid facing reality vis-à-vis their quarterback.

But that’s real life, isn’t it? The 2019 Chicago Bears weren’t running with Sim Trubisky, a badass who doesn’t get tackled until he wants to be tackled. Mathematically precise and beautiful are the arcs of his passes, craftily sculpted are the drives he leads. In this tournament at least, Mitch Trubisky is a fucking god in the mold of a Madden 2004 Michael Vick or Tecmo Bowl’s QB Eagles. As amazing as Aaron Donald has been, no one can handle the Mitch.

Which is why NFLbets is saying take the Chicago Bears ML at +110 vs the Los Angeles Rams. AS for the over/under, you’re guess is as good as ours. After a run of 5-3 by over, the under is now on 5-1 run, with the sole over coming in the Rams-Panthers Final Four game. NFLbets supposes that if you like the sim Rams, take the over. If you like the Bears, well, there’s no telling what kind of damage Sim Trubisky will do to these unsuspecting sim Rams defenders. You’re probably still taking the over. So … take the over, we guess.

–written by Os Davis


“Strength of Schedule” statistic bolsters NFLbets’ superearly Super Bowl pick

Friday, 22 May 2020 10:57 EST

Right up front, we’re saying that NFLbets believes the 2020 NFL season will start on time and will be played in full. The logic is simple: Every player in the league knows that his career lifespan is short and that they need the money, and franchise owners have demonstrated repeatedly that they just don’t give much of AF for player safety nor player rights since, what, 1920?

Until we actually see play, we’ll also assume that the football we see in 2020 will resemble a reasonable facsimile of ’19 in terms of contact – not to mention willingness to make contact. IF players are wrapped in bubble wrap (or even forced to cover themselves head to toe), NFL bettors might as well sidle up to a craps table for all the skill that football betting would instantly become.

Tell you what: If NFL football in 2020 looks sufficiently random, NFLbets will start looking to cover the teams that have never won a Lombardi – or more precisely, the Arizona Cardinals, Cleveland Browns, but by no means the Detroit Lions or Houston Texans –  in Super Bowl LV betting. Just to balance out the numbers, you understand.

For now, though, we’re working within our chosen reality. We’ll see what happens in week 1 when it happens.

Strength of schedule drawing interest “thanks” to COVID-19

 Soon after the NFL released its 2020 schedule, mainstream sports media, bloggers and podcasters got to work crunching the numbers for the league and/or their team, happy to be given some stats to play with. The results were quite interesting and made NFLbets very happy indeed.

Based on 2019 results and ranked most to least difficult, Strength of Schedule (SoS) for ’20 looks as follows. Bold indicates a 2019 playoff team.

1. New England Patriots, .537
2. New York Jets, .533
3. Miami Dolphins, .529
4. San Francisco 49ers, .527
T5. Buffalo Bills, .525
T5. Detroit Lions, .525
T5. Atlanta Falcons, .525
T8. Arizona Cardinals, .518
T8. Houston Texans, .518

Chart for winning NFL betsT10. Minnesota Vikings, .516
T10. Los Angeles Rams, .516
12. Denver Broncos, .512
T13. Chicago Bears, .509
T13. Seattle Seahawks, .509
15. Green Bay Packers, .504
16. Tampa Bay Buccaneers, .502
T16. Indianapolis Colts, .502

T18. Kansas City Chiefs, .500
T18. Carolina Panthers, .500
20. Tennessee Titans, .498
21. Las Vegas Raiders, .496
22. Jacksonville Jaguars, .494
23. Los Angeles Chargers, .492
24. New Orleans Saints, .490

25. Philadelphia Eagles, .486
26. New York Giants, .482
27. Cincinnati Bengals, .477
28. Washington Redskins, .465
29. Cleveland Browns, .461
30. Dallas Cowboys, .459
31. Pittsburgh Steelers, .457
32. Baltimore Ravens, .438

The primary weakness of the SoS stat is of course its total reliance on past results with no adjustment made for offseason transactions, coaching hires and draft picks. No matter: Some solid predictioning may be nevertheless undertaken – if we’re openminded enough to accept a little change.

From the Those Who Forget History Department comes a little analysis of how the preseason strength of schedule played out in 2019.

•  Of the 14 teams with an opponents' winning percentage of .496 or lower going into the 2019 NFL season, six made the playoffs. Make note of those teams, however: the Buffalo Bills and Seattle Seahawks backed into the playoffs as wild cards; the Philadelphia Eagles were the “best” of the NFC Least at 9-7; the ’19 Baltimore Ravens’ 14-2 mark would have made them an outlier in any 16-game season, while the New Orleans Saints were no. 3 in the NFL in overachieving per the Pythagorean Expectation (PE) wins; and the New England Patriots, whose defense was on record-setting pace in the first half of the season (remember that?) after ignominiously going one-and-done in the playoffs.

•  Of the 15 teams with an opponents' winning percentage of .504 or higher, six advanced to the postseason. However, of those with a top-8 SoS, just two, the Kansas City Chiefs and Houston Texans, proved postseason teams – and the Texans tied for the no. 1 spot with fellow playoff flameouts the Green Bay Packers in overachieving PE. Kansas City meanwhile certainly benefitted from the downturn their division mates, the Denver Broncos and “Los Angeles” Chargers, suffered in ’19.

The conclusion NFLbets draws from 2019 (a rather typical season in terms of preseason SoS and PE wins, incidentally): The preseason SoS statistic does matter, but mostly at the extremes. Tweaks of expectation may be made when either a given team or its divisional opponents have undergone a drastic makeover during the offseason, but such towering leaps and plummets of, likesay, three or more games are the exception.

How to adjust Super Bowl LV betting based on Strength of Schedule

Consider, for example, the 2020 New England Patriots. On one hand, Patriots-pushers will tell you that Bill Belichick is the real driver of the Patriot machine; Pats detractors naysay by touting Touchdown Tom’s achievements on the field. Pragmatically speaking, New England is facing the proverbial uphill battle in ’20 with the league’s toughest schedule – and this includes four games against the likely-still-weak New York Jets (7-9 in ’20), Miami Dolphins (5-11), “Los Angeles” Chargers (5-11) and Detroit Lions (3-12-1).

But check out where their traditionally hapless division mates land on the SoS table: The Bills, Dolphins and Jets also draw the AFC West and NFC North teams and are in the top-5 toughest SoS list. This far out, NFLbets would put the Patriots at 9 or even 10 wins – and again winning the AFC East.

And NFLbets will also be taking off a few expected wins from some marginal teams, i.e. the Texans, Los Angeles Rams and Atlanta Falcons, by dint of SoS (and, in Houston’s case, by dint of their generally fucking asinine offseason player transactions). We’ll tack a few on for the Las Vegas (yes!) Raiders, Dallas Cowboys, Cleveland Browns and maaaaaaayyyyyybe the Pittsburgh Steelers.

Best of all, though, are tentatively NFLbets’ favorite team for 2020, the Baltimore Ravens. That .438 SoS based on a schedule which includes games against the teams of the NFC East, AFC South and Cincinnati only bolsters NFLbets’ post-Super Bowl LIV bet on the Ravens to win Super Bowl LV at 13/2 look even tastier. Those odds are now down to 5/1 at MyBookie and could get lower before scheduled kickoff.

One final brazen prediction along that line: NFLbets might even go so far as to say the odds could lengthen from even the opening 13/2. Why? Say Cleveland and Pittsburgh improve just enough to give Baltimore a game at home. Say they lose in a couple upsets, likesay at Dallas and vs Tennessee. Suddenly, the Ravens are backing into the no. 3 seed at 11-5 or 12-4 by tiebreaker with the surprising bandwagon Browns. In this scenario, o boy, will there be money to be made.

God bless Lamar Jackson and that awesome chip on his shoulder.

Whether you’re ready to bet on Super Bowl LV or wish to try beting the NFL regular season,
use the NFLbets’ exclusive Mybookie promo code NFLBETS when you make your first deposit get up to $1,000 in free bets!

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–written by Os Davis

 

 

 

 


O boy o boy o boy o boy, have we got a Super Bowl LV bet for you…

Wednesday, 25 March 2020 18:00 EST

No good football betting to be had, you think? It’s way too early to be considering Super Bowl betting options, you say? (Actually, NFLbets has said this on numerous occasions.) Well, perhaps it’s a consequence of an improper ratio of time to available bets, but this line looks quite tasty:

To win Super Bowl LV
AFC champion +1 (-105) vs NFC champion (-115)

We’re not crazy, right?

Just on a pure gambling, all-things-being-equal basis, any proper NFL bettor should be jumping on the AFC champion +1. Strictly mathematically, with the actual Super Bowl teams unknown, this bet has a slightly better chance of not losing due to the push the bettor gets should the NFC team win by a single point. (Nevermind that just one in the 54 Super Bowls thus far has been decided by 1 point; it could happen again…)

The current favorites – and justifiably so, we certainly can all agree – in any “To Win Super Bowl LV” proposition bet are the defending champion Kansas City Chiefs and the Baltimore Ravens, who whipped off a 14-2 mark in 2019. And with seven of the top 10 on the table are NFC sides (in some order, these include San Francisco, New Orleans, Philadelphia, Tampa Bay, Dallas, Seattle and Green Bay), the bookie is basically offering Kansas City and Baltimore against the field.

Now, sure, a team that’s not among the top 10 shortest odds at season’s beginning can win the Super Bowl – the 2011 New York Giants and 2017 Philadelphia Eagles come immediately to mind – but damn if the AFC doesn’t seem rather top heavy going into ’20. Additionally, a repeat visit by Kansas City would certainly make them the favorite and so would the Ravens if they enjoy anywhere near as successful a season as last year’s.

Beyond this, the odds of -105 are likely to be excellent as compared to a comparable line once the Super Bowl LV teams are set – that’s some superb value. And on top of everything else, say a 9-7 Buffalo Bills or Cleveland Browns team somehow sneaks into the big game as a no. 7 seed to face, likesay, the 49ers, just hedge!

All in all, this is a great flyer to get while you can this preaseason. Take the AFC champion +1 to win Super Bowl LV

– written by Os Davis


Tom Brady goes to Tampa Bay, shakes up Super Bowl LV odds table a bit

Wednesday, 18 March 2020 13:59 EST

Finally, officially, after two decades, the reign of terror in over: Belichick ‘n’ Brady’s New England Patriots are dead, and the Golden Boy has moved on to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. For NFL bettors, the consequences of the move will have both immediate and short-term effects.

In the short-term, NFL bettors no longer necessarily have to adjust for the hyper-dynastic Patriots’ outlier performances over the 20 seasons since a fifth-round draft pick out of Michigan came into the game for an injured Drew Bledsoe. The presence of the Patriots has distorted both Super Bowl history and win-less records ATS, but bettors need no longer affix the asterisks to such historical marks, as the Patriots may now be considered a historical artifact.

For the 2020 NFL season, of course, the big acquisition has already wreaked havoc with the odds tables in the “To Win Super Bowl LV” proposition bets. Below run the top teams on both tables; odds listed reflect those posted by Bovada and Las Vegas sportsbook odds aggregators, respectively.

To Win Super Bowl LV
•  Kansas City Chiefs: +650, +450
•  Baltimore Ravens: 8/1, 5/1
•  San Francisco 49ers: 11/1, 10/1
•  New Orleans Saints: 16/1, 14/1
•  Tampa Bay Buccaneers: 20/1, 14/1
•  Dallas Cowboys: 25/1, 14/1
•  Seattle Seahawks: 25/1, 20/1
•  Philadelphia Eagles: 25/1, 20/1
•  New England Patriots: 25/1, 30/1
•  Green Bay Packers: 33/1, 20/1
•  Indianapolis Colts: 33/1, 20/1

NFLbets has already commented on the early odds table to win Super Bowl LV – and those odds on the Baltimore Ravens still look pretty good to us, by the way – so here we’ll consider the effects of the Brady move on his new Buccaneers and departed Patriots.

The jump seen by the Tampa Bay Buccaneers seems fair enough; though they’re drawing shorter odds than two teams already getting well shorter odds than can be excused away only as marketability and volume betting. (Look, pragmatically speaking, the 49ers will not repeat as NFC champions and the Saints’ window of opportunity has closed.) In a what-the-hell spirit, throwing some moneys at the 2020 Buccaneers is hardly the worst bet; heck, NFLbets has Dallas penciled in as NFC champ.

But remember that those odds on Tampa Bay are based purely on potential. Bruce Arians-led teams are just 22-25-1 SU over the past three seasons – and before anyone snarkily points out he was coaching the Arizona Cardinals and the Buccaneers in those years, the Pythagorean Expectation (PE) statistic shows that those teams actually unperformed by more than 3½ wins combined.

Additionally, Tampa Bay sports quite the impressive cadre of WRs in Mike Evans, Chris Godwin, Rashad Perriman and O.J. Howard, this last of which requires a bit of a flier, as this guy just hasn’t yet lived up to his potential in the NFL. Of course, these three guys have done little in the postseason and last year were graced with Jameis “The Coronary Inducer” Winston at QB; the 2019 Tampa Bay Buccaneers thus oddly led the NFL in passing yardage, were no. 3 in passing TDs and were dead last in turnovers.

The defense, meanwhile, was subpar against the pass in 2019. To address this thus far, Tampa Bay reupped Jason Pierra-Paul, franchise-tagged Shaquil Barrett ... and that's about it. With the $27 million/two-year deal handed Pierre-Paul plus Brady's haul will certainly suck up a lot of cap space and eliminate certain opportunities to improve on this side of the ball.

So the Bucs are dealing with quite a fair number of unknowns going into 2020, including how much the GOAT QB has left in the tank. But, hey, NFL bettors could do a lot worse than covering Tampa Bay in a seemingly wide open NFC.

Then there’s the 2020 New England Patriots, first Pats team since 2001 expecting to start a quarterback other than Brady. Remember how, once upon a time, Bill Belichick was known as a defensive mastermind, the guy that stopped the daunting and revolutionary hurry-up offense developed by Marv Levy’s Buffalo Bills for the New York Giants in the Super Bowl? Or as the defense-first HC that stopped the Greatest Show on Turf 10 years later? Well, after all this time with a hyped-up GOAT, Belichick looks poised to turn New England into a defensive juggernaut designed to stop the high-flying offenses in Kansas City and Baltimore.

In the first half of last season, the Patriots defense was on a historically great pace: Through eight games, New England didn’t surrendered more than 14 points in a single game and allowed an average of just about 7½ ppg to that point. The defense may have been publicly perceived as the Patriots’ problem in 2019, beginning with the 37-20 week 9 loss to Baltimore, but the truth is they still finished no. 1 in overall defense per Football Outsiders’ DVOA metric.

We can therefore expect the post-Brady Patriots to lead with the defense, at least in the immediate future – but the offense may need a thorough overhaul to stay competitive. Touchdown Tommy’s main weapon in 2019 was of course Julian Edelman, but what does anyone expect from a Brady-less Edelman? James White had a decent season with 908 total yards, but fellow RB Sony Michel mainly demonstrated his limited ability as a pass-catcher, getting just 20 targets and making a poor 12 catches. Is Rex Burkhead really the answer? And of course there’s still that Gronkowski-sized hole at TE…

On the plus side, the offensive line is still solid, having ranked no. 9 overall in DVOA and no. 5 in pass blocking. Guard Joe Thuney was the only possible starter headed for free agency and the Patriots franchise-tagged him to insure a return.

In the final analysis, then, we’ll take a wait-and-see on the 2020 Patriots making the Super Bowl. The Chiefs and Ravens still loom large and given the combination of moves made by Houston and Tennessee, NFLbets is actually quite liking the Titans’ chances as well, but 25/1 to 30/1 represents outstanding value for what could be the NFL’s best defense in 2020 – not to mention the GOAT head coach of all-time…

–written by Os Davis


Earliest Super Bowl LV odds: Chances of Baltimore Ravens, 31 other teams to win in 2021

Wednesday, 05 February 2020 14:49 EST

Sure, it’s seriously waaaaaaaaaaaaaaay too early to be betting on Super Bowl LV – even if you were among the reported great majority who lost on Super Bowl betting this year thanks to some underwhelming offensive performances – but it’s never too early to make snarky comments and goggle at some frankly weird lines. So let’s have at; the top spot on My Bookie's odds table is naturally held by the…

• Kansas City Chiefs: 4/1. So if Kansas City managed to go back-to-back titles by managing not lose winning Super Bowl LV, they’d be the first since the 2003-04 New England Patriots? Yeah, NFLbets isn’t ready to make that sort of commitment yet.

• Baltimore Ravens: 13/2. We’re thinking this line is only going to get shorter as the season progresses; there’s no way the Ravens front office can avoid improving Lamar Jackson’s WR corps this offseason. Ravens fans are certainly already jumping on this one.

• San Francisco 49ers: 15/2. Given that 9 of the last 19 Super Bowl-losing teams have missed the playoffs altogether the following season (7 of 15 if excluding Patriots teams) and that Kyle Shanahan has inexplicably demonstrated little confidence in Jimmy Garoppolo, what gives with this line? As for NFLbets, we’ll most likely be taking the under on 49ers wins in 2020.

• New England Patriots: 8/1. You can’t ever write off these Patriots, so – no, wait. Yes, you can write off the Patriots in 2020.

• New Orleans Saints: 15/1
• Pittsburgh Steelers: 18/1
. Even with killer offseasons, the willingness to continue running with QBs so far past their prime will eliminate the Saints and Steelers from contention again.

• Dallas Cowboys: 20/1. Sure, the Cowboys should be well improved under Mike McCarthy. We can easily imagine them winning a weak-ass NFC East, sneaking through the playoffs and finally getting smoked in the Super Bowl. What a lucrative, glorious dream…

• Green Bay Packers, “Los Angeles” Chargers, Philadelphia Eagles, Seattle Seahawks: 25/1. NFLbets always seems to throw a few moneys at Seattle prior to the season, and the Seahawks typically exceed expectations. Given a decent offseason, the Packers would appear to be a decent bet here as well.

• Cleveland Browns, Las Vegas Raiders, Los Angeles Rams, Minnesota Vikings: 30/1. Call this bunch the “We Won’t Get Fooled Again” Group. Or the Led by Once-Overblown Quarterbacks Bunch.

• Houston Texans, Indianapolis Colts, Tennessee Titans: 35/1
• Jacksonville Jaguars: 100/1
. Apparently, the AFC South winner and interdivisional games will be as preposterously difficult to predict in 2020 as in ’19…

• Atlanta Falcons, Buffalo Bills, Chicago Bears: 40/1. NFLbets is a bit surprised that the Buffalo Bills, after two straight playoff appearances and showing real improvement in the 2019 season. Maybe it’s all in the marketing.

• Tampa Bay Buccaneers: 45/1
• Denver Broncos: 50/1
• Carolina Panthers, New York Giants: 66/1
• New York Jets: 70/1
• Detroit Lions: 80/1
. The Rebuilding Level, we’d call this quintet – except we’re not sure what to call what the Broncos front office has been doing since signing decrepit Peyton Manning.

• Arizona Cardinals: 85/1. NFLbets hopes the Cardinals go into the 2020 season as underrated as these early odds indicate. Again, it’s way early, but we’ve got a feeling about Kyler Murray & Co...

• Cincinnati Bengals: 100/1
• Miami Dolphins: 125/1
• Washington: 150/1
. Prediction: At least 75% betting on any of these three teams in any “To Win Super Bowl LV” prop will continue to deny reality for one more season.

– written by Os Davis

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Super Bowl odds FAQ

As stated above, the “To Win the Super Bowl” futures bet is ultra-popular, particularly amid the hype of preseason games and predictions cluttering the internet. Obviously no magic formula for choosing the Super Bowl champion exists because Las Vegas would be bankrupt otherwise. However, remembering a few simple facts ‘n’ stats can certainly help in betting Super Bowl spreads and props.

Directly below, NFLbets answers a handful of the more commonly-asked FAQs about Super Bowl odds and betting online…

Who is going to win the Super Bowl?
It’s impossible to make generalizations here, but NFL Bets can tell you which team is probably *not* going to win the Super Bowl: The team with the shortest odds to do so when the season starts. Since the 2001 season, only 10 of 24 preseason favorites or co-favorites even made the Super Bowl; five of these were New England Patriots teams. Those 10 teams went just 3-7. By sheer numbers, then, the preseason Super Bowl odds-on favorite ultimately wins the title just 1 in 8 times.

Who is going to win the Super Bowl ATS?
The outright winner of the Super Bowl through number LIII is 44-6-2, not including the New England Patriots-Seattle Seahawks ’Bowl, which went off as a “pick ’em.” In fact, on a single 20-year run between Super Bowls XXII and XLIV, the SU winner was a relatively poor 13-5-2 ATS. So if you want to make ML bet, you might as well bet the team you’ve got ATS – and vice versa.

How many Super Bowls has each NFL team won ATS?
The all-time leaders in amassing Super Bowl wins are the Pittsburgh Steelers and New England Patriots (with six each); the San Francisco 49ers and Dallas Cowboys (five each); and the Green Bay Packers and New York Giants (four each). However, at 6-5 SU, the Patriots are only 4-7 ATS. The best bet in the Super Bowl historically has got to be the 49ers at 5-1 ATS; too bad they haven’t won one since Super Bowl XXIX…

Who has more Super Bowl wins, AFC or NFC? And against the spread?
Going into Super Bowl LIV, the NFC/NFL has a 27-26 edge over the AFC/AFL in straight-up wins. Against the Spread (ATS), the NFC does slightly better, at 27-24-2.

Where can I legally bet on the Super Bowl?
For US bettors, this depends on your state of residence to some extent. Early legalizers/decriminalizers of sports and NFL betting such as New Jersey, Delaware, New Mexico and others had physical locations for betting in place when new laws went into effect. As for online football betting, check out our partnering sportsbooks, which are all legal to play on in the United States.

Where can I bet on the Super Bowl online?
Nowadays, those sports sites owned or managed by companies which publicly trade in New York or London will block folks residing in certain states from even *seeing* odds on NFL games. All other sites are fine to play on. Naturally, NFLbets recommends wagering on our partnering casinos; see our pages for great sportsbooks accepting US players.

How do you bet on Super Bowl props?
Once you’ve registered at an NFL betting website or arrive at a “real life” sportsbook, Super Bowl props should be well-publicized and thus super easy to find. In both instances, betting on a Super Bowl proposition bet is the same as doing so for any other bet. Important note: Virtually every sportsbook online or off- offers a handful of weird crossover multi-sport props which are a heck of a lot of fun.

Does Vegas lose money on the Super Bowl?
Because of the nature of the point spread, the money line and the odds offered on other bets, it is extremely rare for Las Vegas and all bookmakers to lose money on any sporting event, never mind the Super Bowl. As an example, Las Vegas was said to take a major hit on the New England Patriots in Super Bowl LIII, with 65%-plus of bets on the Patriots minus the points, but more than made of for this loss on the over/under, which had 68& of bettors taking the over, which did not hit.