AFC West proposition bets

02 September 2018

Yes, NFLbets knows about the delay on these last two divisional proposition bet previews. However, Os Davis has ended his holdout, having been signed to a three-year multi-million money contract and thus avoiding having the franchise tag slapped on. “Who wants to play in the preseason?” Davis asked rhetorically. “It is kind of a bummer in one respect, since I had actually bet on my being traded to the Chicago Bears…”

In fact, now that the long wait is over on fellow holdout Khalil Mack plus certain other signals have been made by Jon Gruden and the Oakland/Las Vegas Raiders brain trust, NFLbets can get to looking at the “Over/Under Wins” and “To Win Division” futures/props for the AFC West teams in 2018.

With the exception of the moribund Oakland Raiders, this could be fun – and with few exceptions, quite lucrative for the NFL bettor. Here’s the table:

AFC West			O/U wins	to win div. (oper)	to win div. (current)
Los Angeles Chargers			9½	+175	+175
Kansas City Chiefs			8½	+325	+275
Oakland Raiders			8	+275	+275
Denver Broncos			7½	+300	+400

 

We’ll start with this: Take the Oakland Raiders to go under 8 wins. Period. Lock it in for at least three reasons:

• The trading of Mack, one of the NFL’s top two defensive players, to Chicago was not only a brutal move in terms of, likesay, talent, but helped bring morale of the veterans back down to 2010 levels as several wondering aloud publicly just WTF management was doing to the team’s well-liked franchise player.

• About the same time the Bears were informing Mr. Mack that he stood to make $141 million through 2023, the Raiders made another under-the-radar move in trading for quarterback A.J. McCarron. Sure, Derek Carr needs a competent backup (or even McCarron – o, burn!), but doesn’t this transaction reek of preparation to deal Carr and play the Wiley Veteran Who Gruden Respects?

• Stud WR Amari Cooper – really Carr/McCarron’s only weapon left – has been all praise for Gruden this offseason, but his contract comes up after the 2018 season, and the smart money says he’ll be looking to bag a $70-plus million deal. Will cash-strapped club owner Mark Davis make that investment after drawing under 10,000 to games this season?

• And then there’s that long contract given to Chucky – NFLbets doesn’t care if that’s a dated reference; Chucky Gruden f@#%$#ing ruled! As a media darling, Gruden makes possible the selling of any number of outrageous moves, including a now-traditional stripping of assets in preparation for franchise relocation.

All this spells out in great Las Vegas-esque flashing neon letters REBUILDING YEAR. Anyone remember the last couple seasons of the St. Louis Rams? That’s your 2018 (and probably ’19) Oakland Raiders.

•••••

Much hype this offseason has been sent the Kansas City Chiefs’ way, and why not? Based on Andy Reid alone, this team should easily top a laughably low 8½-win mark the sportsbooks have established. Reid may not know how to clock-manage worth a damn come playoff time, but here are his regular-season win totals since getting with the Chiefs: 11, 9, 11, 12, 10.

Quarterback Pat Mahomes is running up the kudos this preseason as well. In what should be a model for rookie quarterbacks (when the given team has the resources, that is) , Mahomes sat down nearly every game in 2017, only to earn the starting job pretty much immediately after the season concludes. Like DeShaun Watson, Mahomes can throw the ball a mile and has won over his offensive teammates.

Mahomes & Co. will have to run up the score in 2018, because the Kansas City defense will certainly need help. A bottom-10 passing defense in ’17 minus Marcus Peters? Yeesh. Tell you what: NFLbets will be taking the over in many a Kansas City Chiefs game this season…

What will slow down the Chiefs in terms of win is the insanely daunting-looking schedule with which they open: at Los Angeles Chargers, at Pittsburgh Steelers, vs San Francisco 49ers, at Denver Broncos, vs Jacksonville Jaguars, at New England Patriots. After this stretch, we can easily imagine the Chiefs taking eight of the last 10, so just a 1-5 record over this ridiculous first month and a half would be enough to put Kansas City over that 8½. We’ll say they can do so. Take the Kansas City Chiefs to go over 8½ wins. Take a flyer as well and take the Chiefs to win the AFC West at +275, which is way too high.

•••••

Just as the relatively short odds on the Raiders to post a winning record and win the AFC West reflect the massive interest in the team in Las Vegas, so too do the unwavering lines on these futures for the Los Angeles Chargers show the widespread apathy regarding this team.

But +175 or so to win the division? NFLbets doesn’t see it.

The Chargers start with no homefield advantage – other than the temperate clime of Southern California, we suppose – and could face two “home” crowds with more opposition fans when facing the 49ers and Raiders in weeks four and five. They also get a London game this season.

All young talent and Philip Rivers aside, the injuries and early issues have arisen right on cure during the preseason for the Chargers. At present, the checklist includes TE Hunter Henry and CB Jason Verrett out for the season; CB Casey Hayward, TCB revor Williams and WR Tyrell Williams all already questionable for the opener; DE Joey Bosa likely to start the season injured; and DT Corey Liuget suspended for the first four games.

Can this team win 10 games? Maybe. Can they win the division? Possibly. But NFLbets isn’t betting on either.

•••••

And then there are the Denver Broncos, armed with the NFL’s scariest pass-rushing duo in former NFL defensive MVP Von Miller and first-round draft pick wunderkind Bradley Chubb. One look at the schedule and this Denver D must already be salivating at the thought of getting at weak-ass offensive lines like those of the Raiders, Seahawks and Cincinnati Bengals.

So defense alone should be enough to net the Broncos four or five wins; going over 7½ wins should be easy for Denver, right?

Wellllllllllllllllllllll … there is that offense. Certainly ever a source of frustration for Broncos GM John Elway has got to be his frustration with quarterbacks guru John Elway. Brock Osweiler was barely serviceable and scammed several mil out of the club. As a draft pick, Paxton Lynch was Paxton Whiff. Trevor Simian started 24 games despite a sub-60% completion percentage.

For 2018, it’s Case Keenum at the helm. Keenum looked great as a starter for the Minnesota Vikings in ’17, going 11-3 as a starter after starting his career with a 9-15 mark over four seasons. Last year, Keenum played behind an offensive line which ranked sixth-best in pass protection; the Broncos ranked 29th.

So yeah, NFLbets isn’t touching the Broncos in these props, but will be looking to bet a lot of unders against shaky OLs.

NFLbets’ best bets for AFC West betting:
•  Oakland Raiders under 8 wins; and
•  Kansas City Chiefs over 8½ wins.

NFLbets’ recommendations for AFC West betting:
•  Kansas City Chiefs to win division – at anything better than +110.