After the Jacksonville Jaguars upset the New England Patriots in week 2, this site is once again taking a crack at predicting a Patriots win ATS in week three. Unlike the extremely close odds of last week (Jaguars +2), this week the Detroit Lions are 6½-point underdogs at home against New England.
One team’s problem is another team’s solution … or something like that. Prior to their week 3 matchup, the Patriots acquired Josh Gordon from the Cleveland Browns, who had ended their tumultuous relationship with the receiver. If Gordon starts in week 3, he will add a new dimension that the Patriots’ offensive toolkit lacks. While Phillip Dorsett is one important deep threat that New England has, they were lacking another, as Chris Hogan is better used on the inside. Adding Gordon puts Hogan back to where he can succeed while giving Tom Brady two threats for the price of one acquisition. If Gordon plays, look for the Patriots’ passing game to carry them to victory against the Lions.
Detroit does not have the defense I suggested they did when I predicted the Lions to rout the New York Jets. In fact, the Jets routed the Lions, 48-10 ATS – on paper and on field are two different things, who knew? Even though they have good numbers (they currently out-sack the Patriots 8 to 3), the Lions don’t get those key stops. Watching them play, it becomes evident that they lack the big-time playmakers required to end drives and create turnovers.
While Detroit has a solid defense, if they cannot tighten up and make those crucial stops, they will start the season 0-3. Some players to look for that could potentially make impacts include S Tavon Wilson, who currently leads Detroit in total tackles with 12. With him is CB Quandre Diggs, who leads the CB group with 1 interception and 9 total tackles. Diggs will match up with either Gordon or Dorsett and try to shut them down.
Matthew Stafford improved in week 2, slightly. After getting blown out 48-17 to start the season, you can only go up, right? Stafford completed 27 of 46 passes for a 58% completion percentage and threw a ghastly 4 interceptions to start out the season. In week 2, he threw no interceptions and completed 34 of 53 passes for a 64% completion percentage. While not stellar by any means, any improvement at all is huge for the Lions, as they live and die by the successes and failures of Stafford.
In a surprising twist, one of the Lions’ best weapons in week 2 was second-ear player Kenny Golloday, making 6 catches for 89 yards and scoring one touchdown in the process. This continues his breakout season from week 1, when he was one of few bright spots in catching 7 passes for 114 yards. This kid is good, and he will be a big factor in a Detroit Lions win.
The Patriots defense is boring. Not because they’re bad, they’re just a machine. They choke out offenses because the system they have in place works so well. A very good point of proof of this is Dont’a Hightower, who is not doing well at all this season, with zero sacks and only 6 total tackles. Yet even with one of their highest-paid defensive players having a bad start to the season, the Patriots are still 1-1. Even though they did lose to the Jaguars, it wasn’t primarily the defense’s fault. The offense only put up 20 points, which is not a way to win NFL games. If the Patriots’ defense can continue to use their system effectively and Stephon Gilmore continues to be sensational at CB, they should pull out a win against the Lions.
This one’s pretty cut-and-dried: Take the New England Patriots -6½ at Detroit. New England just has a better roster up and down the lineup than Detroit does. Barring any major collapse, they should easily be able to outscore the Lions by a touchdown or more. As for the over/under, the Patriots defense did not do well last week, and Stafford can do damage deep if they falter. We suggest taking the over on an O/U of 52 points.
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