Superstition of course has no place in profitable sports/NFL betting. This is a particularly necessary dictum for NFLbets in week 9, as, subjectively speaking, it seems that every time we ask, “What are we missing here?” in an obvious-looking line, we lose.
Pure mathematics tells us that such a contention cannot seriously be correct. Sometimes, as Freud said, a cigar is just a cigar. And sometimes easy lines are just easy lines. The following represents what NFLbets considers (perhaps foolishly, admittedly) easy pickings for this weekend, our Best Bets for week 9.
Please note that, as a “pick ‘em” game, records and stats ATS are noted purely for interest, as you’re essentially making a money line (ML) bet. Should you buy this line up to Colts +1 or Steelers +1, you may also treat this as a ML bet, unless you think this one ends in a tie.
Did no bookmaker watch last week’s Monday Night Football game? Because what NFLbets saw was a third-string QB looking like a second-string QB at best, an offensive line that can’t pass-protect, and a team that couldn’t cover the spread against the NFL’s worst team.
And here comes the go-to line for this time of year, when frauds who’d been beating up on bottom-feeders are exposed (cough Buffalo Bills cough cough hack): Pittsburgh is exactly 0-4 SU (2-2 ATS) against teams with winning records, beginning with the 33-3 beatdown the New England Patriots handed them in week 1. As for homefield advantage, yeah, right: By dint of drawing the Seattle Seahawks and Baltimore Ravens at home, the Steelers are 2-2 SU/ATS in Pittsburgh.
Folks, the 2019 Pittsburgh Steelers are a mediocre team; it’s almost as though they lost All Pro-caliber players in several “skill positions”…
The 2019 Indianapolis Colts, meanwhile, are not a mediocre team. They may have already taken charge of the usually very slippery AFC South and, should the Houston Texans lose at the London Jaguars on Sunday, formally will have. The Colts are currently on pace to draw the no. 2 or no. 3 seed in the AFC and have beaten two teams well better than the Steelers are right now, namely Patrick Mahomes’s Chiefs and DeShaun Watson’s Texans.
Again, we just don’t get this line. Take the Indianapolis Colts at Pittsburgh.
Let’s review: Since moving into the soccer pitch in Carson City, the Chargers have gone 3-8 SU (2-8-1 ATS) in “home” games, 1-0 SU (0-1 ATS) in London, and *12-2 SU (11-3-1 ATS) in road games* including playoffs. In fact, the sole regular-season road game the Chargers have lost SU in that span was to the – get this – Los Angeles Rams.
This normally would be enough for NFLbets to shut up and plunk down the money, but let’s drive the point home. (So to speak.) The Packers are coming to town and are likely to fill seats to capacity with transplanted fans. No defense has been able to stop Green Bay since the opening day snoozefest against Chicago, and the Pack has been good for at least 21 points per game since for an average of 29.3 ppg.
And while the big-play defense hasn’t been quite as prolific lately with just three takeaways in the past three games, Green Bay is nevertheless bringing the best D that the Chargers have faced all season regardless – except maybe the Bears, to whom the Chargers managed 17 points on 231 total yards of offense. The Packers D’s weakest area is against the run, so Melvin Gordon is probably a quite-good fantasy play, but as we say at NFLbets, f*** fantasy football. Only a monstrous performance from Gordon will keep this one close. Take the Green Bay Packers -4 vs the Chargers in Los Angeles.
Right, we’ll keep this one super simple. Let’s spare the obvious non-comparison between these two and just accept that the Seahawks are the far superior team here.
The only relevant stat out there is this: Since 2005, Seattle ranks no. 2 overall ATS at home; Seattle’s 12th Man advantage is mathematically real – and this season, the Seahawks are 0-4 ATS at home. What more do you need? Take the Seattle Seahawks -6½ vs Tampa Bay.
NFLbets’ Best Bets last week: 3-0.
NFLbets’ Best Bets this season: 9-9.
–written by Os Davis
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