Best bet, NFL week 15: Vikings -3 at Los Angeles Chargers home game; WTF?
Just as with last week’s Tennessee Titans-Oakland/Las Vegas Raiders line, NFLbets just doesn’t get
Minnesota Vikings -3 at “Los Angeles” Chargers
So what gives? Is it the East-to-West-Coast thing? The numbers may say that historically the Pacific Time-based home team is an excellent pick, but firstly that advantage always increases with lateness of game in question and secondly Eastern Time teams appear to finally be lessening the advantage. In 18 games played in the Pacific time zone with a 4pm ET, the home team is 6-10-2 ATS while the favorites are – you guessed it – 8-8-2 ATS.
This line can’t be reflective of any homefield advantage on the Chargers’ part, can it? Since moving into the Carson City soccer stadium, they’re a mind-bogglingly bad 3-10-1. Though NFLbets is continually looking for regression to equilibrium, the only thing that can stop NFL bettors from piling it on against the Chargers in L.A. is a hangover.
Is this an indication that the sportsbooks still holding onto the delusion that the Chargers are still working with a well-armed All Pro QB in Phillip Rivers? The sole real quality win this team has enjoyed this season came in week 9 as Green Bay put in their worst effort this season. And Rivers’s stats, like career lows in TD-to-interception ratio and net yards per attempt, just confirm what the eye-test shows.
Is it that would-be bettors were blinded by last week’s 45-point performance into thinking that the Chargers somehow have a viable offense? Hell, that 45 made just the third game this season these guys managed more than 26 points – the other two instances were in week 1 and at Miami in week 4. Recall, too, that last week’s opposition was the Jacksonville Jaguars, who are demoralized to levels last seen when Blake Bortles was quarterbacking.
Despite all the numbers and trends, though, the most inexplicable of all about this Vikings -3 is simply, likesay, football. The Vikings are a solid playoff team, earmarked for postseason play since the midway point. And since week 5, Minnesota is 7-2 SU (5-4 ATS) with the only losses at Kansas City and at Seattle; geez, if Kirk Cousins’s receivers had verbally kicked their QB’s butt a little sooner in the season, the Vikings might be leading the NFC North right now…
The truth is that Minnesota has just one team in the NFL to worry about before the playoffs, the team who can truly call L.A. home: The Rams. Take the Minnesota Vikings -3 at Los Angeles.
NFLbets’ Best Bets last week: 1-0.
NFLbets’ Best Bets this season (ATS): 16-13.
–written by Os Davis
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