Who else is thrilled to hear the last about the 50th season of Monday Night Football? As though anything more than five years past is ever seriously relevant to the NFL bettor! About the only good MNF has ever done NFLbets and our lot is to give an opportunity to recoup Sunday losses in what has become a more predictable match than the Sunday lineup. I
In fact, NFLbets will lay out the numbers which would appear to indicate that Monday night has ultimately become irrelevant as an X-factor in picking these games – or, rather, for right now, the last MNF game of the 2019 NFL season, namely…
Historically speaking – or at least as historical as we’re willing to get – the numbers on the 1717 Monday Night Football games since 2010 played to date show the following somewhat frustrating numbers.
• Overall, the home team on MNF is 86-80-5 ATS – though 100-71 SU;
• Home underdogs are 27-32-0; and
• Home favorites are 54-51-5 ATS.
The usual suspects stand out as outliers, of course: The New England Patriots during the 10s went 9-3 SU and 8-3-1 ATS. West Coast teams playing at home against non-West Coast teams are an impressive 12-6-2 ATS. We’ll leave it up to the individual NFL bettor as to whether these are large enough sample sizes, but we’d give these five teams the edge in a Monday night situation.
Sadly, we’ve got two NFC North teams here, and NFLbets is tending to favor the Vikings here against the trending numbers.
Why? We begin with the impetus, as in it’s all on Minnesota. Green Bay’s already clinched a playoff berth, and Packers enjoy the 1-game advantage thanks to the week 2 win over the Vikes – meaning the Vikings not only can clinch a playoff berth with a win on MNF, but they can still wrest away the NFC North lead and more: Having lost to the Seattle Seahawks in week 13, Minnesota probably can’t get the no. 1 overall seed, but a win here puts a bye week and a home game in play for the Purple & Gold.
Plus … do you realize that the Vikings could well be the second-hottest team in the NFL right now? After starting out 2-2 SU/ATS, they’ve since gone 8-2 SU (6-4 ATS) with the losses coming by 7 points or fewer at Kansas City and at Seattle. Minnesota’s also a perfect 6-0 SU at home (though 4-2 ATS) and certainly have got to feel good about closing out 2019 with two home games.
In the week 2 matchup, the Packers got out to a 21-0 first half lead based on a missed field goal, a fumble recovery and an interception. But since week 4 and Kirk Cousins regaining control of his faculties, the Vikings have surrendered just 10 turnovers – we’ll see what Green Bay can do if not gifted the ball four times.
Even better for the Vikings, the Packers run defense has, if anything, fallen off since the week 2 games. Despite ranking just 17th in rushing attempts against, Green Bay is bottom-10 in overall yardage, yards per attempt and rushing TDs against. NFLbets likes the possibilities for Dalvin Cook, who went for 191 total yards and a TD against the Pack last time out.
On top of everything else, we’re highly suspect of Green Bay this season regardless. To date, they’ve played just three games against teams which now have a sub-.500 record: The week 2 game against the Vikings and the limpid version of Cousins; a week 8 squeaker against the Matt Moore-led Chiefs; and the 37-8 beatdown they got in San Francisco in week 12. Seriously, does no one remember Matt LaFleur is a rookie head coach? That this time has managed scores of 10, 11 and 8 in road games this year? That the running game is still makeshift and the only viable option at TE is Jimmy Graham, who’s about 57 years old and has caught 8 catches on 15 targets in the past five games combined?
All in all, NFLbets has to wonder if the Packers are taking Satchel Paige’s life advice at this point in the season, i.e. if they look back, they’ll see the Vikings gaining on ‘em steadily. Green Bay does not want this game this Monday. Take the Minnesota Vikings -5 vs Green Bay.
NFLbets’ Best Bets last week: 1-0.
NFLbets’ Best Bets this season: 17-13.
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