NFLbets Pick of the Week: Broncos as home underdogs (Hubba hubba hubba, who do you trust?)

Sunday, 30 September 2018 12:51 EST

How about those Los Angeles Rams? On Thursday night, the L.A. Rams 2.0 overcame the absence of Aqib Talib and the playing-hurt Marcus Peters, thus Kirk Coursins’s excellent performance (36-of-50 passing for 432 yards to go with 3 TDs and zero picks, to win SU, 38-31. As for ATS, that where things got very interesting for the Rams and NFL bettors plunking money on them in last night’s game.

Those NFL bettors prescient enough to catch the early line of Rams -6½ scraped by with the magical ½-point when Dan Bailey hit his fourth-quarter field-goal attempt for the game’s final scoring. Those who took the Vikes +6½, well, you were the only ones who lost at the sportsbooks, with Rams -7/Vikings +7 making for a push. Incredibly, through four games this season, the Rams remain undefeated ATS at 3-0-1.

Which is what makes much of betting in week four such a bitch for both viewer and bettor. Aren’t we going to see some balance in the ATS standings? One would think so, but let’s play a round of “Who Do You Trust?”

Packers started at -10½, now they’re down to -9. Do you trust the Green Bay Packers? Do you trust the Buffalo Bills a week after pulling off the biggest ATS upset in a quarter-century?

The Dallas Cowboys are 3-point favorites against the Detroit Lions. As far as NFLbets knows, the Cowboys still have two weapons on offense while a single victory over a catatonic Bill Belichick doesn’t suddenly make Matt Patricia a genius. Who do you trust here?

Houston Texans (0-3-0 ATS) +1 at Indianapolis Colts sounds reasonable (or just take the money line for better odds) with Andrew Luck incapable of throwing a Nerf football 30 yards at this point, but have you seen the Texans OL so far? Yeesh.

Jacksonville Jaguars -7½ versus the New York Jets? To NFLbets, the Jaguars are up to old tricks, i.e. not certain to *score* 7½ in a given game.

The Oakland Raiders 2½-point *favorites* against the red-hot ATS Cleveland F*&#&#*ing Brows? Yeah, like we’re getting off this 3-0-0 horse. On the other hand, now would be a perfect time…

And so on.

Right, so never mind what not to bet; let’s talk about what to bet.

NFLbets says to take the Denver Broncos +4 vs the Kansas City Chiefs on Monday Night Football. No, really: Try to forget momentarily the magic of Pat Mahomes and consider the cold math ‘n’ facts. Just off the top, doesn’t Denver enjoy a major home-field advantage? Like, to the tune of .706 (221-91-4) SU between 1970 and 2011 alone?

To this end, the Broncos is one a 6-2 ATS run as home underdogs. At this point, NFLbets’ argument about regression comes into question, but a 7-2 ATS mark would be just over 7% better than Denver’s aforementioned SU mark. The .777 winning percentage is a lot lower, however, than that of a 4-0-0 or 3-0-1 mark resulting from a Kansas City win ATS – not to mention miles higher (so to speak) than what would be an 0-4-0 or 0-3-1 ATS mark.

The only wrinkle? Chiefs head coach Andy Reid has been pretty damn good on Monday Night Football for bettors. Going back to 1999 (whoa) and the beginning of his career with the Philadelphia Eagles, The Great Tomato is 16-10 SU and 18-8 ATS. And Reid’s teams on the road on Monday night are preposterously good: How about 7-3 SU and a whopping 8-2 ATS. Finally, Reid’s overall career marks on MNF with the Chiefs are 2-2 Su and 3-1 ATS.

But NFLbets ain’t backing down from the Broncos; not in a week with very few great games for NFL betting and even fewer compelling matchups. Simply imagine this scenario: The Chiefs tucker out a bit in the second half, Case Keenum does enough with the offense against what might be a historically bad defense (Seriously, did Reid steal the old Greatest Show on Turf’s playbook for offense *and* defense?) to tie the game late, and poor clock management in overtime leads to a nice 34-34 tie.

Believable, isn’t it…? Again, take the Broncos +4. Trust us.