NFLbets is in a nicely enviable position for the divisional championship round of the CFL playoffs this year. Thanks to some futures betting, we’re looking at automatic wins this week (or at least extensions to next week’s Grey Cup) Nevertheless, too much winning is never enough, as they say, so we’ll be looking to bag a win-win-win-win situation by throwing down a few more Moneys (NFLbets’ preferred form of currency) on Sunday.
For many, the Hamilton Tiger-Cats have been one of the biggest disappointments of the 2018 CFL season – and they’re certainly the biggest among this year’s playoff teams. After having bottomed out midway through the 2017 season, the Ticats chased an 0-8 start with a 6-4 finish and were optimistic heading into ’18. Things looked so good for Hamilton after a good offseason that NFLbets happily covered them at 6/1 in the “To Win 2018 Grey Cup” prop bet.
That wager is still alive and, combined with Hamilton’s 48-8 immolation of the BC Lions in last week’s semifinal should leave NFLbets and other Ticats backers a lot more confident than we are – but it’s tough to back a team as wishy-washy in results as this Hamilton team.
As NFLbets has pointed out previously, the Ticats’ longest ATS run – a three-game losing streak – was snapped by the playoff win. Though 4-2 ATS following a SU run, Hamilton may simply have too many injuries to overcome a RedBlacks team that handled them fairly easily in weeks 20 and 21. Bralon Addison, who before the week 21 game against Montreal had caught one pass all year, enjoyed a breakout game against BC, going for 124 yards on five catches.
But how much can Bralon Addison and Luke Tasker, the last man standing from the Ticats’ top four WRs at season’s beginning, help the inconsistent Jeremiah Masoli crank out their average 405.6 yards per game? Ottawa’s offense has been the second-most productive all season at 387.1 ypg, they’re missing no top “skill players” and they’ve got homefield advantage plus the bye week behind them. That’s a lot of plusses to go against a sub-.500 team. Take the Ottawa Radblacks -3½ vs Hamilton.
This point spread feels very dependent on traditional measures and very light on the actual reality of how these teams are playing football right now. Those following the CFL know that Winnipeg is on a 6-1 SU/ATS run, haven't lost a meaningful game since the bye week and the return of Weston Dressler; that was in mid-September.
Also of note: The money line (ML) on the Bombers in this one is +180 to +200.
Meanwhile, the perpetual threat of the 2010s CFL, the Calgary Stampeders stumbled their way to the finish line: Over the second half of the season, the Stamps went just 5-4 SU (3-6 ATS). This stifled 5½ seasons of a 65-14-2 SU record, an incredible .814 winning percentage representing an average season of about 14-3-1. Something is amiss in Stampederville, but the lines steadily play to the same old narrative.
The truth is that injuries to Calgary’s WR corps have left Markeith Ambles and Chris Matthews as the top two pass-catchers; Ambles started his season in week 16, Matthews in week 18. DeVaris Daniels probably won't return for this game. And thus against Winnipeg, Calgary would like to slow the game down.
Unfortunately for the division champs, the league’s top-scoring offense is all present and accounted for at “skill” positions and OL alike. And while Calgary brings the CFL’s no. 1 defense against the run – they’re allowing under 87 yards per game – Winnipeg can answer with Canadian football’s premier pass-catching back in Andrew Harris. Not quite the crutch for the offense he was in 2017, Harris went for just about 3.25 receptions per game for 451 yards in ’18. In the 29-21 week 20 win over the Stamps, however, Harris was good for 130 total yards, including 86 yards rushing and five catches for 44.
Not only should Winnipeg have the ability to score early and often, they’ll certainly have the impetus to do so as well. LB Adam Bighill (likely to win Most Outstanding Defensive Player of the Year) will be playing hurt if he goes at all after getting knocked out of last week’s win over the Saskatchewan Roughriders. As of Wednesday afternoon, LB Jovan Santos-Knox is questionable and seems unlikely to play.
Can the Stampeders win this game? Absolutely. QB Bo Levi Mitchell, head coach (and former DC) Dave Dickinson and a few others have been in this situation enough times to induce heavy déjà vu.
Calgary has hosted four of the past five West Division Finals, and the Stamps are 3-1 SU/ATS in those games. Also factoring – or, rather non-factoring – is the weather. Four days out, the forecast has the temperature for Sunday in the 30s Fahrenheit but no precipitation expected, which will reduce the unexpected random events. (Ask the average Stamps’ fan who witnessed the last two Grey Cups to tell you about weather as a randomizer.)
But we’re thinking that even if the Stamps do win straight up, that line may be too high. We can well imagine the Bombers covering in a 3-point, game-winning field goal victimization. (Ask the average Bombers’ fan about heartbreaking finishes and trampled dreams.) With money already on the Stamps and the Bombers to win the Grey Cup, NFLbets can afford to hedge a little here on what appears to be the better side: Take the Winnipeg Blue Bombers +5 at Calgary.
NFLbets’ recommendations for CFL semi-final playoff betting :
• Ottawa RedBlacks -3½ vs Hamilton; and
• Winnipeg Blue Bombers +5 at Calgary.
CFL best bets record to date: 10-9.
CFL recommendations record to date: 13-10.
Overall record: 23-19.
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