NFLbets was just about halfway through a column on all three Thanksgiving Day games before the news hit ESPN Wednesday afternoon: Mitchell Trubisky is highly doubtful to play in the holiday game against the Detroit Lions.
Great! So now the Thanksgiving Day games column might be rewritten – good thing we have our bets in, heh heh. And NFLbets is devoting a brief bit of space here to exhorting NFL bettors on this first Thanksgiving Day game.
Beyond the absence of Trubisky, the argument for covering Detroit leans heavily you want to argue Detroit's case here, the Lions naturally have the homefield advantage and the Bears are playing on the shortest of all possible weeks currently allowed under NFL policy: Namely, a Sunday prime-time game chased by the 1pm ET slot on a Thursday.
(Damn, no wonder the Bears want to sit Trubisky this week, with the Los Angeles Rams on the horizon and a nice grip on the NFC North division lead. If Matt Nagy thought sitting every single first-stringer would give his guys an edge against the Rams, he’d certainly do so.)
Historically speaking, Decatur/Chicago Staleys/Bears, at 17-15-2 between 1920 and 2015, are one of just two teams with a winning record on Thanksgiving. Note that about half of these games were played against the Lions in Detroit, a series which is knotted 8-8 going into 2018.
The Lions are meanwhile 37-39-2 all-time on the holiday, which includes an 1-11 beginning in 2001, surely not at all coincidentally the first season Matt Millen was the club’s general manager. Take out this plateau-within-a-plateau and Detroit is instead a respectable 36-28-2 (.545) on Thanksgiving.
Interesting stuff to be sure, but we’re talking about the present-day Bears and Lions here, so let’s talk some turkey (so to speak) about this low-watt Lions offense. In the last four games (vs Seattle, at Minnesota, at Chicago, vs Carolina), the Lions are 1-3 SU/ATS, managing an average of 15.1 points against these defenses ranking anywhere from above average to top 10.
Thus is the Bears defense presented with its toughest task of the season thus far. Despite all the kvetching many have done about Trubisky, the truth is that the defense will seemingly have to carry the Bears in this one. Except NFLbets believes that short break for Chicago is a potential game-opener. By the 40-minute mark, these guys may be utterly shagged out.
Plus, there’s that X-factor in Chase Daniel. How many times have we seen a new quarterback step in and wow the world with a headline-style game? It almost feels as though, unless that team is the Cleveland Browns or Oakland/Las Vegas Raiders, a substitute QB is bound to succeed. Daniel will certainly be helped by a heavy diet of Jordan Howard and Tarik Cohen, at least one of which should be a nice DFS play today. (Which one? Who can tell? Daily fantasy football is gambling!)
Daniel might have reason to feel confident anyway against a weak pass rush amid a defense ranked 30th in defensive efficiency thus far, per Football Outsiders’ DVOA metric.
Finally, the bookmarkers themselves are showing incredible under-confidence in the Lions this Thanksgiving: Consider that homefireld advantage typically earns from 3 to 4½ points in the spread and this game translates as a “pick ’em” on a neutral field – and this line’s gone down 1 point at some sportsbooks since the news on Trubisky came out.
In the final analysis then, NFLbets will dodge the point spread altogether and advise bettors to take the over on an O/U line of 43½ points. This figure is far too low for a tuckered-out D against a terrible playing in a dome.
Visit our sportsbook partners for latest odds, betting options and bonuses
