We *are* in week 15 of the 2018 NFL season, right? So … we should know, likesay, which teams are heading to the playoffs/are one the bubble, and we should know which teams are beyond mediocrity and into “lottery pick” territory.
(Incidentally, can football analysts, talking heads and whatnot stop using the term “lottery pick” for the NFL? No such thing, brahs. Thanks in advance!)
NFLbets raises an eyebrow at a couple of point spreads this week; sure, stuff like Cowboys +3 at Indianapolis, Patriots -2½ at Pittsburgh and even Packers +5 at Chicago make a certain amount of sense – though truth be told, we’re thinking the Bears’ll cover that five points pretty easily. It’s the mismatches that having us thinking – and betting.
We don’t get this spread at all, for example:
This has all the makings of a dominant performance from Lamar Jackson – well, relatively dominant, as NFLbets believes the Ravens playbook is still only about one-quarter full of plays actually designed for Jackson. Similarly to the Kansas City Chiefs, the Buccaneers are bringing a bottom-5 defense against the now-bona fide starting QB.
The Tampa Bay defense’s weaknesses – and, as with Kansas City’s, they are many – appear to play precisely to Jackson’s strengths. Check out just a handful of the more mundane statistics which sufficiently explain how poor the Buccaneers are on that side on the ball:
• 30th in points scored against;
• 27th in yards allowed;
• 28th in first downs – Jackson has been a magician in this area lately, going 28 of 56 on 3rd downs in the past four games against the similarly weak Ds of Cincinnati, Oakland, Atlanta and K.C.;
• 27th in passing yards allowed;
• 31st in passing TDs allowed and 29th in rushing TDs allowed; and
• 23rd in interceptions.
Combine all this with the Ravens’ top-5 defense and, yeah, NFLbets says take the Baltimore Ravens -8½ vs Tampa Bay. This could get ugly. And so could…
We’re calling our bet on this game the NFLbets Pick of the Week for week 15, so click here for our choice and reasoning – you can probably already guess our choice…
Then there’s this one, which we’re throwing in just for perversity’s sake.
Seriously, why does this game even exist? The over/under on attendance for this game is probably around 9,000½. The Jaguars have scored 9 points or less in four of the past eight games and the trash-talking now-silent defense has all but surrendered. In the post-Alex Smith Era in Washington, meanwhile, the team is down to second- and third-stringers at minimum 10 positions. This includes at quarterback, a role now, likesay, filled by Mark Sanchez.
From a betting angle, but one way to approach this game from an NFL bettor’s standpoint is evident: Take the under on an O/U of 37 points, and enjoy the deliciousness of cashing in on an unwatched 9-6 non-thriller.
NFLbets Best Bets record in 2018: 34-26-2.
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