Week 1 ATS results: We learned so much (or so we hope)!
With the first week of the NFL season in the books, NFLbets editor Os Davis offers a final rundown of week 1 results, presented in the form most relevant to the NFL bettor, namely adjusted for the point spread; as always, games with SU results differing from ATS results are in bold.
NFL opening week is by several multitudes more important to bettor and fan than any other week in the season. The great majority of everything will we learn about these 32 teams was shown to us this week. Though NFLbets doesn’t believe the Ravens are good for 50+ every week (though the Dolphins could certainly give up that many – 1000 points surrendered or bust!) nor that the Cowboys can maintain start-to-finish control regularly, but questions were answered.
Specifically, teams which were essentially one massive question mark for bettors were unmasked as viable or unviable options going forward. We’re thinking specifically about the Cleveland Browns, New York Jtes, the Jacksonville Jaguars, Atlanta Falcons, Minnesota Vikings, Denver Broncos and those Cowboys – most ending up on the wrong side of the bettor’s options.
Now if only we can remember to hold the bankroll until week 2 next year. Or write week 1 off to gambling losses. We’ve got 51 weeks to forget – and we certainly will, if history is any indicator. The scores ATS for week 1, then!
• Green Bay Packers 10 at Chicago Bears 0. For the fans awaiting pro football since the 13-3 Super Bowl, the NFL Kickoff Game was rough. For bettors foolish enough to wager on a week 1 game, it was rougher – at least the under was as easy a bet as always on TNF. The ‘’book had the Bears favored by 2 in this game and has them projected for 9½ wins this year. The lesson, as always, bookies know more about this stuff than you do … even in week 1.
• Los Angeles Rams 28 at Carolina Panthers 27
• New England Patriots 27½, Pittsburgh Steelers 3. And speaking of Super Bowl LIII, the Rams and Patriots each defended their conference title, the former in solid fashion, the latter badass enough for to figure that 16-0 SU is in play for the Patriots. Until further notice, we’ll be rolling over money line (ML) bets on the Pats weekly.
• Buffalo Bills 17 at New York Jets 14. And these are the primary competition for New England in the AFC East. And even at 33/1 to win the AFC, the Jets were a total buzzkill in this game despite LeVeon Bell’s true awesomeness.
• Tennessee Titans 43 at Cleveland Browns 7½. The hot take: Whoa, short Golden Age in Cleveland, eh? The longer-term takeaway: The Titans should certainly be getting a lot more credit over the next couple of weeks, so be ready to cover the opposition minus all the points...
• Dallas Cowboys 28, New York Giants 17. The 2019 Dallas Cowboys: Super Bowl contender. A scary thought for fans of NFC teams, but NFL bettors should be looking favorably for the next few weeks on what is currently a top-3 team in the conference.
• Arizona Cardinals 27 at Detroit Lions 24½. The Lions got a home game against a stripped-down Cardinals team with Kyler Murray learning the ropes and could only manage a tie SU after running up a 17-0 lead? Dude.
• Baltimore Ravens 52, Miami Dolphins 10. Note for fantasy players: you’ll be wanting to fill that DST spot with whoever’s playing the Dolphins for the rest of 2019, and you should probably count all games against QBs facing Miami as Ls right now. Note for NFL bettors: The opening line for Arizona at Baltimore in week 2 opened at 13-13½; that’s way too high.
• San Francisco 49ers 31, Tampa Bay Buccaneers 16. The over/under on this game was 51 points and of the 47 points scored, just 12 came from the two offenses combined. Feels like NFLbets will be looking at unders in 49ers and Buccaneers games for some time to come. Also, what are the odds that Jimmy Garoppolo eventually ends up on the Bears, is proclaimed the savior, and ends up “leading” a defense-first team a 12-4 record and first-round playoff flameout? Whatever the line, we’ll take it.
• Kansas City chiefs 36½, Jacksonville Jaguars 26. So, ah, the Chiefs went and ran up 40 points against at least a decent Jacksonville defense. Going forward, this means HOLY SHIT THE PATRIOTS SIGNED ANTONIO BROWN WHAT ARE THEIR ODDS NOW LMFAO!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!1!!!11!
• Cincinnati Bengals 20, Seattle Seahawks 11½
Houston Texans 28 at New Orleans Saints 22½. The Seahawks are running with a (should-have-been two-time) Super Bowl winning QB and head coach who continuously devise interesting game plans which exploit their own strengths; the Texans still boast a nice defense, bolstered their OL by signing All-Pro LT Laremy Tunsil and boast probably the best QB-WR battery in the league. So why are neither taken very seriously as prospective Super Bowl LIV contenders? It’s the offensive line!
Seriously, if you want to educate a noob on the importance of line play in football, have them watch a few plays from either the Seahawks or Texans offense. Let them marvel at the mastery of a dazzling, athletic QB and the meticulous route-running of their receivers; have them notice how either rhythmically mixes up the passes with runs on the march downfield; and then let them groan when the OL crumbles yet again on a 3rd down.
Last year, DeShaun Watson and Russell Wilson took 62 and 51 sacks, respectively; despite this, each played *every single offensive snap* for their teams and got them into the playoffs. In week 1, Watson took six sacks and two trips to the medical tent; Wilson took four sacks, including two which essentially denied the Seahawks scoring opportunities, and let a very bad Bengals team stick around on the scoreboard. It may be just one game, but the conclusion on these OLs is fairly obvious.
• Minnesota Vikings 24½, Atlanta Falcons 12. Apparently, we have our answer as to which ancient QBs will see a downturn in 2019: Aaron Rodgers, Ben Roethlisberger and Matt Ryan. What’s that? Ryan is only 34? Sure, in human years, maybe…
• Washington 27 at Philadelphia Eagles 21½. Could every single NFL bettor who wagered on this game have lost? While Eagles fans sure are thanking Washington for blowing a 17-0 start and a 20-7 halftime lead, wagerers sure ain’t appreciative of the Eagles shaking off the rust far too late to cover the ’spread. Philly should be an easy pick next week, if they come out ready to play.
• Los Angeles Chargers 24 at Indianapolis Colts 24. Naturally, the first push of 2019 goes to the “Los Angeles” Chargers, the most anomalous team of 2018. This SU win represents just the fifth win for the Chargers in the Carson City indoor soccer stadium in which they’re playing “home” games – and the first against a team without a losing record. Meanwhile, since opening day ’18, the Chargers have gone 10-1 SU (9-2 ATS) and 9-0 SU (8-1 ATS) in the regular season in games played outside of L.A.; next week, they’re giving a ridiculously low *3 points* at Detroit. Welp, that’ll make NFLbets’ “Best Bets” column next week a no-brainer…
• Oakland/Las Vegas Raiders 24, Denver Broncos 13. According to last season’s SU records, the Raiders and Broncos have the toughest schedules in football. Whoever lost this game was to start 2019 on the wrong foot, but either of these two will be good to bet against for some time yet…