NFL Week 4 Odds

NFL week 1 ATS results: One week into this season and…

NFLbets may have mentioned this elsewhere, but betting week 1 NFL games sucks. Had we stayed sane – like surely few unleashed after next-to-no proper sports betting for months on end could – and merely been happy with our sure-ish bets on the Texans-Chiefs Thursday Night Football game, we’d be looking at a profit going into week 2 based on one win (Chiefs -9) and one push (over/under 54 points).

Instead, our bets were wiped out by over-expectation and (we’ll say) lack of information due to the coronavirus offseason.

Of course, we can’t blame everything on the insane randomness that is week 1 of any NFL season, as a few realities stayed constant: The Chiefs and Ravens still sport the league’s most explosive offenses, Philip Rivers is still way done, in-house expectations for the Cowboys are clearly still low, and the Cleveland Browns are still the Cleveland Browns. We should have known, really.

The following are the results for the week 1 games of the 2020 NFL season, adjusted for the point spread. Game results listed in italics are those for which the SU and ATS result differed.

ie. Actual Score: Kansas City Chiefs 34, Houston Texans 20

Adjusted Score (-9.5)  = Kansas City Chiefs 24½, Houston Texans 20. One week into the season, the Kansas City Chiefs Repeat Super Bowl Champions bandwagon is already full up – and with excellent reason. Now might be an excellent time to invest a bit in the “Kansas City Chiefs to win Super Bowl 55” futures bet still going for +550 at some online sportsbooks. Compare the Chiefs’ crampacked bandwagon with, likesay, the loser of

Baltimore Ravens 20½, Cleveland Browns 6. One week into the season, we may officially begin wondering if the 2020 Cleveland Browns will go down as the greatest 2-14 team of all-time.

Seattle Seahawks 37 at Atlanta Falcons 25. One week into the season, Pete Carroll, Russell Wilson and their Seahawks are flummoxing NFL bettors. (Hey, did you have them pegged for 38 points…?)

Las Vegas Raiders 34 at Carolina Panthers 27. NFLbets tried to make up a pithy summation of this game, but damn if I still can’t make sense of this result. Vegas in the playoffs, Baby!?

Denver Broncos 14, Tennessee Titans 13. This one, neither: Does homefield matter in 2020? Can the Broncos win games with this offense? Can the Titans? Ugh.

And perhaps in the AFC East as well, where New England Patriots 14, Miami Dolphins 11 was a pretty typical ATS result for this matchup – except the Patriots’ three TDs are came on the ground and the New England defense outpaced its offense. Scary! And just one week into the season, you can bet (so to speak) that some dudes in Boston are already planning to get utterly ripped on Sam Adams, put on war paint, knock down the nearest Tom Brady statue and dump it into the harbor.

Los Angeles Rams 19, Dallas Cowboys 17 What we witnessed here was pre-season form from both teams. That losey offensive pass interfearence between Jalen Ramsey and Michael Gallup was controversial in many ways. The contact was light, football light and Jalen Ramsey stole the game on this play. We should have been watching OT after a cowboy feild goal. It hurts as a DAL fan.

Pittsburgh Steelers 20 at NY Giants 13 What can you say about this one. Conners goes down and out again with an ankle sprain. The backup B.Snell Jr. put on a clinic and won the game. This seems earily familiar with any Pit RB. I guess a good offensive line does make a difference...just ask Lev'on Bell and his 14yrs from scrimmage in week 1.

Washington Football Team 27, Philadelphia Eagles 11½. One week into the season and already the Eagles are the biggest disappointment in the league and the NFC East may again be the Least. Also: One week into the season and the good juju earned by finally dropped that insidious team name is already paying off – with the extended 7-team playoff format now in place, Washington could well make the postseason in their first year as the Football Team.

New Orleans Saints 31½, Tampa Bay Buccaneers 23. One week into … ah, come on. You saw the game. You saw what he looked like out there.

Buffalo Bills 20½, New York Jets 17
Chicago Bears 27 at Detroit Lions 20½
. One week into the season, NFLbets figures at least two head coaches are prepping their résumés…

Green Bay Packers 43 at Minnesota Vikings 31½. Between this and the aforementioned Bears-Lions game – Seriously, the Lions D gave up 21 points to the Mitch Trubisky-led offense? – it’s pointedly obvious one week into the season that it’s business as usual in the NFC North.

Arizona Cardinals 24, San Francisco 49ers 13½. One week into the season, and NFLbets is already overly prideful in his Cardinals over 8½ wins prop bet. (Look, it was just about the only decent pick we made in the preseason…)

Jacksonville Jaguars 27, Indianapolis Colts 12. And speaking of bad picks, the Colts. But NFLbets deserves the loss for forgetting just one week into the season a fundamental rule of NFL betting, i.e. Stay The Fuck Away From AFC South Intra-divisional Games, damn it.

“Los Angeles” Chargers 13 at Cincinnati Bengals 13. And because of this result, the Bengals get the WTF line of week 2, i.e. 6 points at the Cleveland Browns. Why, yes, Mr. Oddsmaker, NFLbets’ll take a piece of that…

– written by Os Davis

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