NFL week 8 ATS results: Losing faith in mathematics (sort of)

29 October 2019

Last week, away teams ruled ATS in going an impressive 9-4-11 – but in week 8, the visitors really killed it with an 10-3 mark plus one neutral-site game. However, truly crazy is the reality that these results are the norm in 2019: Home teams are, incredibly enough, just 51-68-2 ATS this season; and SU, homers are barely better at 53-63-1.

To further weird things us, consider that while only one team remains undefeated ATS at home thus far are the San Francisco 49ers, four have yet to win at home: The Los Angeles Chargers (if you want to acknowledge the soccer stadium in which Chargers backers are always outnumbered), Kansas City Chiefs, Tampa Bay Buccaneers and, stunningly, the Seattle Seahawks. The Green Bay Packers, Los Angeles Rams and Indianapolis Colts, meanwhile, are undefeated on the road/in neutral-site games at a combined 10-0-1.

NFLbets is, of course, a big believer in regression to the mean, but this trend is nearly enough to shake one’s confidence in numbers.

NFLbets’ roundup of week 8 results with scores adjusted for point spreads runs below; scores marked in bold indicate those games in which the SU and ATS result differed.

• Washington 9 at Minnesota Vikings 2½
New York Giants 26 at Detroit Lions 24½
• Philadelphia Eagles 29 at Buffalo Bills 13. With the Dallas Cowboys on a bye, the pitiable NFC North went 3-0 ATS – not improbably the last time this season this division will rack up three ATS wins in a single week.

• Jacksonville Jaguars 23½ at New York Jets 15
• Tennessee Titans 25, Tampa Bay Buccaneers 22. Since Buffalo was unmasked as frauds last weekend and the AFC North teams are generally inferior … could two AFC South teams make the playoffs?

• Oakland Raiders 24 at Houston Texans 22. Let’s hope that three AFC South teams don’t get to the postseason, because the only way to win ATS with an AFC South team in not to bet.

• New England Patriots 13½, Cleveland Browns 13. Those who bet on Patriots -13½ would like to thank the Browns OL for giving up a sack in the fourth quarter in a situation which might have put Cleveland within “just” two scores and might’ve flipped this result for bettors.

• Atlanta Falcons 20 at Seattle Seahawks 19½. With this win, the Seahawks are 3-1 as visitors ATS and – get this – 0-4 ATS at home. This is one serious outlier, considering that over the past 15 years, the Seahawks rank no. 2 at home ATS overall (and go ahead, take one guess as to who’s no. 1). Mark it down right now: You’ll be taking the Seahawks minus any points at home the rest of the way, relevance of game depending. (For the record, that’s week 9 vs. Tampa Bay, week 13 vs. Minnesota, week16 vs Arizona and week 17 vs San Francisco.

• San Francisco 49ers 46½, Carolina Panthers 13. Yeesh, since when did the 49ers become the Chiefs (except with a frankly awesome defense)? Note: Excepting the anomalous weather-marred Washington game, this team is averaging 33.0 points per game, yet the over in Niners games is 5-2 thus far. Sounds like the over is a good bet down the stretch – if the D doesn’t crush everyone like they did the Panthers…

• Denver Broncos 13 at Indianapolis Colts 9½. Correct NFLbets if we’re wrong, but wasn’t that Joe “6.6 yards per pass attempt” Flacco complaining about not getting a chance to win the game for his Broncos. We don’t say (write?) this often, but … whatever, dude.

• “Los Angeles” Chargers 17 at Chicago Bears 12½. Eddy Piniero did more than help lose the game for Chicago last week, he also delivered a dagger to any holders of “Bears -3½” and “over 41” tickets. There, Piniero, now all those folks hate you, too.

• New Orleans Saints 18½, Arizona Cardinals 9
• Los Angeles Rams 10½, Cincinnati Bengals 10 (UK)
• Green Bay Packers 29 at Kansas City Chiefs 24. These three winners (along with Guess Who) top the ATS standings board at 6-2; quite an impressive feat, considering that all four entered the season as expected playoff teams. Further, the Rams, Packers and Patriots have played as favorites in 21 of the combined 24 games, and the Saints are on a 5-0 ATS run.

• Miami Dolphins 14 at Pittsburgh Steelers 12½. Would you believe that, after the Saints, the Miami Flippin’ Dolphins are the hottest team in the NFL ATS? Three wins in a row and counting…

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