Best Bets for week 12: What’s not to love about the NFC West?

Wednesday, 20 November 2019 20:08 EST

All right, NFLbets has got the Los Angeles Rams covered already among our picks of the week and we’d certainly bet the Arizona Cardinals against the bye if we could. Each team in the NFC West (with the exception of the defending NFC champion Rams) has well trumped even the highest realistic preseason expectations, and all (with the exception of the Seattle Seahawks) have proven at least fairly lucrative for NFL bettors.

The NFC West’s four teams are a combined 19-10 ATS (.655) against all non-NFC West teams; the breakdown looks like so:

Arizona Cardinals, 6-2
L.A. Rams, 6-2
San Francisco 49ers, 4-2
Seattle Seahawks, 3-4

And that 3-4 – not to mention Seattle’s 5-5 overall ATS record – is indicative of how bizarre betting the Seahawks at the sportsbook has been this season. The NFL’s second-best home team ATS is a stunning 0-4 ATS in Seattle in 2019. Crazy!

The point here is that NFLbets is loving the NFC West right now, and we’re ready to throw down more moneys on the Seahwaks and 49ers – probably the top two teams in the NFC.

Green Bay Packers +3 at San Francisco 49ers

Speaking (writing?) about exceeding expectations, how about those 8-2 Packers? Good stuff, NFLbets’d say … before checking for chinks in the armor.

The Green Bay defense has gotten many accolades – particularly when carrying a shaky offense in the first few games of the season – but are statistically pretty average and currently rank 18th in Football Outsiders’ DVOA metric. On the offensive side, the Packers rank top 10 both by convention measure and DVOA despite fair-to-middling numbers in most categories. How does this happen?

Turnovers – or rather lack thereof. Aaron Rodgers and his Packers simply don’t give up the ball willingly. Green Bay’s offense has surrendered a miniscule seven TOs and have only done so in three games – and haven’t turned it over once since week 6 against Detroit. Four straight games without a TO is quite a prolonged streak which seems ready to break.

So … can the 49ers break the Pack’s stinginess? Quite possibly: This defense is just nasty out there, with turnovers notched in nine of 10 games and three games of four TOs – including against the Seahwaks, likely the best offense they’ve met to this point.

For that matter, Rodgers & Co. are staring down the barrel of a D they haven’t seen in a while. The Niners are top-5 statistically in points, yards, passing yards, TDs, net yards per pass attempt and first downs surrendered. They’re also top-3 in tackles for a loss (should be handy against a nearly non-existent Green Bay running game) and, critically, turnover percentage rate.

The result of this insanity plus the marvelous Jimmy G? The *average outcome* of a 2019 San Francisco 49ers game thus far is a 30-16 win.

All in all, we’d hate to be in Aaron Rodgers’s shoes on this Sunday night. Take the San Francisco 49ers -3 vs Green Bay.

Seattle Seahawks +1 at Philadelphia Eagles

This one’s a bit of a baffler. If we take for granted that Las Vegas gives 2½ to 3½ points for homefield advantage, are the sportsbooks really claiming that the Seahawks are not at least a field goal better than the perpetually discombobulated Eagles?

Is it a West Coast-East Coast thing? Forget it. Since Russell Wilson took over at QB in 2012, the Carroll ‘n’ Wilson Seahawks are an impressive 17-6 SU in games in the Eastern time zone; for the record, they’re 15-7-1 ATS, but at Seahawks +1, this is essentially a “pick ‘em” anyway. And this particular edition of Seattle has thrown away homefield advantage anywhere in the country, anyway, at a whopping 4-1 ATS on the road – not to mention 5-0 SU.

NFLbets doesn’t think we need to go too heavy into the numbers on this one. Again, we’ll take the superior team, and take advantage of this bizarre underdog status. Take the Seattle Seahwaks ML of -105 at Philadelphia.

NFLbets’ Best Bets last week: 1-1.
NFLbets’ Best Bets this season: 10-13.

–written by Os Davis

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