NFL week 4 results ATS: Let’s … just put that behind us, shall we?

02 October 2019

NFLbets has said (written?) it before and we’ll say it again: After week 1, the most difficult of all for NFL betting in the schedule is week 4. This is the week when the bookmakers have these teams figured out, but the average bettor does not.

As a result, this year’s NFL week 4 brought us underdogs going 10-5 ATS and 8-7 SU. We got the Detroit Lions covering against the mighty Kansas City Chiefs, we got the Buffalo Bills doing just enough to beat the ultra-team from New England, and we got the Oakland/Las Vegas Raiders winning outright against (probably) a pretty fair Indianapolis Colts side.

Ah, whatever. Week 5’ll be easier, right? In the meantime, NFLbets presents our roundup of week 4 results with scores adjusted for point spreads, runs below; scores marked in bold indicate those games in which the SU and ATS result differed.

• Philadelphia Eagles 34 at Green Bay Packers 23½. In this year’s Regression Bowl, the heretofore 0-3 ATS Eagles took care of the 3-0 ATS Packers at home – straight up, even – for NFL bettors. An easy enough pick, as long as one is willing to look past fans' irrational belief in Aaron Rodgers, the so-called Lambeau Mystique and the fact that Philadelphia hasn’t looked very sharp, particularly on offense. You just gotta play the numbers sometimes always.

• Chicago Bears 16, Minnesota Vikings 5. But here’s one regression to the mean we may not see this season: NFLbets sees no reason not to continue covering the under every time “Chicago Bears” is in the line. The under is 1-3 in Bears games thus far in 2019, and the one over was by 5 points against Washington, who’s essentially encouraging opposing teams to score points. This week, the over/under for Bears-Raiders (titter) in London (giggle) is … 40½? (LMFAO!)

• Oakland Raiders 31 at Indianapolis Colts 18½. Just when it looked like the Raiders might be onto something, defensive captain gets tossed for the season. And now it's on to England, where Jon Gruden under-coached his guys to a 27-3 butt-drumming at the hands of the Seahwaks. Who else likes the Bears this week...?

• Buffalo Bills 10, New England Patriots 9. From the bettor's standpoint, Buffalo looked pretty impressive in keeping Tom Brady & Co. powerless in the second half. In the real world, however, neither losing in sacks 5-0 and going 2-of-13 on 3rd down won't win many games SU against decent teams, never mind Super Bowl contenders.

• Cleveland Browns 40 at Baltimore Ravens 17½. Everybody back aboard the Cleveland bandwagon? Great! Get ready to get back on and off and on and off in the next four weeks for at San Francisco, vs Seattle, bye, at New England and at Denver. Tell us again why this team was second favorite for the AFC Championship at the beginning of the season…

• Denver Broncos 24, Jacksonville Jaguars 23½. But hey, here's one bandwagon that's steady, if weighed down: The Jaguars and Gardner Minshuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuu!

• Los Angeles Chargers 15 at Miami Dolphins 10. Another week, anotherr 2-TD+ point spread covered against Miami. What do you figure they'll be getting against the bye? 12 points? 12½...?

• New York Giants 21, Washington 3. We know we're supposed to be taking these "one week at a time" and alla that, but in two weeks (drumroll please), the schedule includes Washington – presumably with their new interim head coach – at Miami. We're currently in line to take the under on that one.

• New Orleans Saints 12, Dallas Cowboys 7½. The proper bettor doesn’t give too much credence to specific team histories, but betting on the Cowboys post-Jimmy Johnson has been excruciating. This team, it seems, is perpetually attempting to convince fans they’re contenders – unless they’re hastily rolling back those expectations built up after a mini-run. You’ll notice that NFLbets rarely covers Dallas; this is no coincidence.

• Carolina Panthers 16 at Houston Texans 4½. And on a much shorter-term scale, similar could be said about the Texans. Except that we have bet on the Texans a few times too many…

• Tennessee Titans 24 at Atlanta Falcons 6½. So do you suppose Dan Quinn already has a draft of his résumé at Zip Recruiter ready to hit POST on Monday?

• Seattle Seahawks 21½ at Arizona Cardinals 10. And do you suppose Kyler Murray ever wonders how that whole baseball thing might have turned out? Even just a little bit…?

• Detroit Lions 30, Kansas City Chiefs 26½. Maybe it's not *all* smoke and mirrors in Detroit: Matt Stafford has again (again!) gotten the Lions’ passing game into the NFL’s top 10 in most categories – and with Marvin Jones as his no. 1 option, no less. But NFLbets is still not buying the whole Head Coach Matt "The Pencil" Patricia schtick yet. In our estimation, this team looks like one of those classic surprise first-half teams which chases a 5-3 with a 1-7 or 2-6 in the second. Still, nice win this win for those with intestinal fortitude enough to have covered those plucky Lions.

• Tampa Bay Buccaneers 55 at Los Angeles Rams 31. Jared Goff went for 517 yards on 68 attempts with an over 80% completion rate and he's still perceived of as having had a bad game? Nobody throws a bad interception like this guy...

• Pittsburgh Steelers 23½, Cincinnati Bengals 3. Overreaction game of correction game? The worst part about NFL betting is that the narrative often only becomes clear months later. Two things are certain, however: Pittsburgh will be getting the benefit of hype next week and Cincinnati will be underrated in the lines.