NFLbets’ week 6 picks: Betting on a scoreboard-spinner, a snoozefest and two trainwrecks

Saturday, 12 October 2019 11:36 EST

Excuse NFLbets while we pat ourselves on the back, but our 4-1 record for “Picks of the Week” was easily the most success we’ve seen in 2019, getting us back over breaking even. The proper bettor shouldn’t let one good week go to the head, so neither will we – after all, this kind of performance should be expected. As we enter into the second-third of the season, we’d better know enough about these teams or we just shouldn’t be betting at all.

And that’s not going to happen. As evidenced by these, NFLbets’ Picks of the Week for week 6 in NFL betting…

Houston Texans +4 at Kansas City Chiefs, over/under 55 points

First off, taking the over in this game is too easy – thus highly dangerous and NFLbets won’t be throwing any moneys there.

The 55 points could be considered purely a byproduct of the simple “points scored” statistic, which produces a “final score” of Chiefs 29.3, Texans 26.2. (Surprising the over/under wasn’t set at 55½. Hmmm…) In 2018, the Chiefs won 42-34 in Houston, and the Kansas City defense isn’t quite as porous as usual in the Andy Reid era, currently surrendering 22.6 points per game against a reasonably tough schedule (at Jacksonville, at Oakland, vs Baltimore, at Detroit, vs Indianapolis).

But NFLbets smells a rat here. Call us crazy, call us irresponsible, but NFLbets is among the few who believes that Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs’ 13-point, zero passing TD performance was not a massive outlier. We’re not saying that K.C.’s spinning in a graveyard spiral on the way to 9-7 SU and missing the playoffs, but did anyone honestly believe that this team would score 30+ per game forever?

In week 6, the Chiefs will be playing without OL Andrew Wylie, who had already been playing out of position due to OT Eric Fisher’s injury in week 2. Tyreek Hill may be back this week, but recent history shows that reintegration of “skill players” doesn’t always translate to instant success (Melvin Gordon, anyone…?) Normally, Mahomes might not fear the aggressive and counterproductive Houston defense – the Texans rank 4th in tackles for loss, and are top-10 in passing yards, sacks and interceptions – he just may not be as prolific when improvising or in the pocket.

This must be the reasoning behind all the money coming in on Houston: This point spread started the week at Chiefs -8. The Texans are playing at nearly full strength, missing only center Greg Mancz, who got a concussion in week 4; however, Mancz has played only one full game in 2019, and Nick Martin’s been doing a decent enough job; Deshaun Watson has yet to fumble off a snap, and the Houston OL actually managed to keep their QB sack-free last week.

The numbers say that the Texans are just 3-10 ATS in their last 13 road games, but we’re thinking regression here. Watson could have a field day against a pretty damn ineffective D which is bottom-5 in stat categories like first downs allowed, rushing yardage and opponent’s time of possession. The Kansas City defense relies primarily on turnovers – they’re 9th in the NFL in that statistic – for stops, but the Chiefs haven’t faced a top-30 receiver yet this year. And all the Texans are bringing are DeAndre Hopkins and Will Fuller, who are averaging 149.4 yards and one TD per game combined.

NFLbets is riding the wave of bettors here: Take the Houston Texans +4 at Kansas City, and the Texans money line (ML) at +175 is mighty tempting, too…

Tennessee Titans -2½ at Denver Broncos

NFL bettors definitely need an excuse to watch a Tennessee Titans game this season, and it says here that no better excuse exists than a wager – against the Titans, that is.

Just as we’re not ready to proclaim the Chiefs extinct, we’re not about to call the 2019 Denver Broncos a contender or even a .500 ballclub, but after last week’s 20-13 win at the “Los Angeles” Chargers, we’re believing that the Broncs are competent enough to again exploit their mile-high homefield advantage. The Broncos in Denver are 0-2 SU and 1-1 ATS, the latter because the sportsbook inexplicably set them as favorites against the Jacksonville Jaguars in week 4.

As has been the case in recent years, the Denver defense remains top-10 quality statistically, allowing 21.2 points and 338.6 total yards per game. The Tennessee offense is again fairly well average – except in one category: Turnovers, and specifically interceptions. Very quietly, Marcus Mariota has thrown for 17 TDs while tossing exactly zero picks. Luckily for Denver, this area is hardly their forte, anyway. This defense has produced admirably, but incredibly rank just 29th in total turnovers: a proverbial “bend don’t break” posture.

The main issue for Denver plays well into the NFL bettor’s favor, too; lest we forget, football is still all about the points scored. Defend Joe Flacco if you can (he’s got a career high in completion percentage going!), but the truth is the Broncos offense has been “good” for a measly 18.0 ppg thus far in 2019. Fair enough, they’ve seen some top-notch defenses this season (Jacksonville, Chicago, Green Bay), but this is clearly one anemic offense.

But again, it’s Denver. And mediocre teams should never win ATS in Denver. Take the Denver Broncos +2½ vs Tennessee, and definitely take the under on an O/U of 40½ points.

Washington -3½ at Miami Dolphins, over/under 42 points

Unlike watching that snoozefest of a Titans-Broncos game that will require wagering to justify, tuning into the 2019 Toilet Bowl should be freakin’ awesome. NFLbets will be tuning in to enjoy the devastation, and we’ll throw a few moneys at the game as well. We will, not, however, be expending a lot of verbiage in this space because these two trainwrecks just ain’t worth it.

We won’t be playing the over/under in this game, since enough turnovers – both offenses are bottom-5 in the statistical category, and how in Lombardi’s name is Miami not dead last? – could produce more accidental scoring and/or red zone opportunities than NFL bettors are accounting for. In fact, we’re counting on some chaos ball here and so are covering a proposition bet: I the “Defensive or Special Teams Touchdown Scored” prop, take YES for a +220 payout.

On a purely psychological level, meanwhile, NFLbets is figuring that Washington will be so relieved to be finally over the questionable-of-competence Jay Gruden that – gasp! – some talent may shine through. Whereas the Dolphins are still attempting to trade away any remaining NFL talent they may have. I mean, there’s a reason that Miami is a 3½-point underdog at home after a bye week … Take Washington -3½ at Maimi.

NFLbets’ Picks of the Week last week: 4-1.
NFLbets’ Picks of the Week this season: 11-10.

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