Well, week 14 in the NFL was certainly a gift for the NFL bettor: Altogether, NFLbets went 3-1 with the sole loser the Browns, who could only cover 8 rather than 8½. (As we said after the victory over the Pittsburgh Steelers which culminated in the Myles Garrett flipout, the 2019 Cleveland Browns can’t even win correctly.)
This week, though, whoo – what a lot of difficulty staring us back in the face! We’re certainly not about to go bet-free in week 15, of course, so we’ll lean on good ol’ dependable regression to the mean for answers. Here’s a handful of our conclusions, which we like to call the NFLbets Picks of the Week.
After a run of seriously, likesay, underwhelming performers at quarterback for the Broncos, NFLbets can’t blame fans for being high on Drew Lock, but geez, let’s not get wasted here. After all, does anyone care to admit the days when Gardner Minshew was considered the second coming of Tom Brady?
Meanwhile, has anyone noticed that this Kansas City defense has been getting consistently better throughout 2019? The running D may be bottom-10 overall, lowlighted by the five games in which the opposition ran for 180 yards or more, but that same defense has also produced nine turnovers in the past four games, good for a +5 TO differential.
And, with opposing teams often going to the pass early against the Chiefs, the KC passing defense has dragged the Chiefs from a ranking of no. 30 to no. 13 in Football Outsiders’ DVOA efficiency metric going into week 15.
We’re thinking that Andy Reid & Co. now probably have juuuuust enough tape on Lock so that this week the Broncos offense will be well stifled. And we haven’t even started talking about Patrick Mahomes, who even at the apparent 80% or so he’s running at should give a middling Denver secondary all they can handle.
O, and the Broncos are a league best 9-4 Against The Spread (ATS). Now, Denver may have exceeded expectations thus far, but … wait, has Denver exceeded expectations thus far? Nah. Take the Kansas City Chiefs -9 vs Denver.
NFLbets admits to having turned the corner somewhat on the Bills, what with last week’s impressive showing of tenacity against the Super Bowl favorite Baltimore Ravens. After viewing the defense’s ability to handle Lamar Jackson about as well as 11 mere mortals could, we’re ready to buy them as legitimate playoff contenders. Except that, well, they lost (SU and ATS). And the simple reason for that is offense. As in “lack of.”
Again, folks tripping out about a rookie QB – in this case, Josh Allen – is hardly unusual, but let’s have a little perspective. Allen’s strength is his ability to avoid the turnover, throwing just one pick in the past eight games, but he’s nearly as adverse to taking chances. In those eight nearly pick-free games, Allen has been sacked 20 times, with half coming in the past two games as his offensive line slowly disintegrates. His top passing performance got him 266 yards at Cleveland – on 41 attempts.
Meanwhile, Pittsburgh’s been playing smoke-and-mirrors at QB as Mike Tomlin is doing some of the niftiest coaching he’s done in a looooooooooooooong time. The Steelers’ ball-hawking defense is tops in TOs generated, no. 2 in interceptions and top-5 in passing *and* rushing yards per attempt. There’s a reason why the over/under in this game is 37, after all.
In the final analysis, then, NFLbets is advising to take the Pittsburgh Steelers +1½ vs Buffalo in what is essentially a “pick ‘em” anyway. Recall once again how Buffalo’s schedule was ranked second-easiest going into the season – now it’s coming back to haunt them and drag down that 8-4-1 ATS record, tied with the San Francisco 49ers for the NFL’s second best.
We’ll admit the rational basis for this pick isn’t easy, but there’s one solid justification for backing Jared Goff in week 14: The opposition and its always-underachieving, perpetually failing head coach. Despite the no. 1 offense in yardage and a defense at least above average in virtually all areas except turnovers, the Cowboys are somehow 6-7 SU (7-6 ATS). Worse yet, they’re an insane 4-0 SU/ATS against the teams of the NFC East, which includes two classic bottom-feeders and the 2019 NFL’s biggest disappointment.
Even if we can’t put all the failure for the 2019 Dallas Cowboys’ performance on Jason Garrett, NFLbets would be more than willing to put on extra for this team’s lack of confidence in the play calling. If one member of this team turns on ESPN for five minutes, he’s certain to hear Jerry Jones insinuating that coach is on the way out, that Garrett is killing the team’s chances, that the ’Boys are an HC away from greatness…
On the other side of the field is Sean McVay, a dude no longer drawing comparisons to Bill Belichick but still clearly possessing the ability to draw up a swell game plan, as in the week 14 TCB of the Seattle Seahawks in L.A. McVay doesn’t even need to flick on the ESPN to know that the Rams pretty much have to win out for a chance of catching the Minnesota Vikings for that no. 6 seed in the NFC.
We’re figuring on McVay constructing a very deliberate and meticulous plan because his team has been 100% dependent upon getting an early lead in games. In games with the Rams leading at halftime in 2019, they’re 7-0 SU; when down a half, they’re “good” for an 0-4 SU mark. The message here: Jared Goff is fine until he must go off-book. Then, well, you see the goose egg.
In terms of talent, the Cowboys are on par or better than the great majority of teams in the league – including the Rams. But if you’re telling NFLbets that this one could come down to coaching and decision-making, well, we’ll cover whoever’s playing the Cowboys any time. Take the Los Angeles Rams -2 at Dallas.
NFLbets’ Picks of the Week last week: 2-1.
NFLbets’ Picks of the Week this season: 37-24.
Sign up at MyBookie.com to receive an exclusive match bonus for up to $1,000 in free playing money – Use promo code NFLBETS when you deposit.
Visit our sportsbook partners for latest odds, betting options and bonuses
