If rationality prevails in the 2020 NFL Draft, LSU’s Joe Burrow and OSU’s Chase Young are going no.1 and no. 2. Of course, Washington may have reason not to simply draft the beastly Buckeye with the second overall pick; NFLbets detailed possible rationales for doing so here.
Thus do we as NFL bettors move on to proposition betting on the no. 3 overall selection when, especially if Washington’s already blown rationality to hell, chaos theory takes over the draft. How aware is the sportsbook of the potential difficulty faced in the no.3 and 4 spots? Very. Here’s what the related prop’s odds table looks like:
When will Jeff Okudah be drafted?
Over-4½th pick: 10/11
Under 4½th pick: 10/13
In the third and fourth spots are the Detroit Lions and New York Giants, respectively. And while both teams would probably both be best served by drafting an offensive lineman, the former has been in such a position essentially since Matt Stafford took over as quarterback, while the latter hasn’t had a really respectable OL since their last Super Bowl win.
On the other hand, the 2020 Draft class is particularly rich in linemen : Just for starters, Tristan Wirfs (Iowa), Andrew Thomas (Georgia), Jedrick Wills Jr. (Alabama), Derrick Brown (Auburn) and Mekhi Becton (Louisville) are touted as potential top-10 picks. For two teams who perpetually seem unable to build a good offensive line, waiting until round two to address the need is hardly unimaginable.
Plus, Okudah has gobs of NFL potential, with incredible speed to the ball whether en route or after the catch.
Supertalented or no, Okudah likely is not under consideration by the Giants brain trust: In 2019, the Giants picked CB DeAndre Baker at no. 30, trading three picks to the Seattle Seahawks to obtain the draft position. Baker started in all but one game last season and had a decent enough year to have earned the top position on the depth chart going into the preseason.
But defensively-minded Detroit Lions head coach Matt Patricia? How will Patricia resist such an outlier talent in what could well be his last year as a head coach with another losing season? Much to the former Patriots DC’s chagrin, his Lions were just brutal against the pass in 2019: In all passing and scoring statistical measures, they finished in the bottom quarter of the league, including ranking dead last in passing yards allowed, and bottom-3 in total yards, total first downs allowed and interceptions.
Sounds pretty simple for the boys in Detroit: If Chase Young is somehow available, that’s the pick. Otherwise, it’s got to be Okudah. Okudah in himself may not be enough to keep Detroit out of the NFC North basement, but if Patricia muffs this pick (and ruins our recommended bet), his inevitable dismissal will be justified. Take under-4½ in the Jeff Okudah draft prop.
--written by Os Davis
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