2020 NFL Draft props: Anybody interested in Jalen Hurts…?

31 March 2020

No matter who ends up with Jalen Hurts on Draft Day (or, more likely, day 2 of the NFL Draft), this QB has already had an interesting career. As a freshman for the Alabama Crimson Tide, Hurts accumulated over 3,700 yards combined passing and rushing while leading the team to a national championship title – but by his junior year, he was on the second team, playing behind Tua Tagovailoa.

And last year Hurts played for Oklahoma and produced an excellent 11.3 yards per attempt while throwing for 32 touchdowns against just 8 interceptions. His Tide-side replacement Tua, slated to be a top-5 pick in the 2020 Draft, was good for 11.2 ypa, 43 TDs and 7 interceptions. Comparable stats for mostly comparable programs, right? So why this odds table in the proposition bet “When Will Jalen Hurts Be Drafted?”

When Will Jalen Hurts Be Drafted?
Round 1: +800
Round 2: +115
Round 3: +140
Round 4-7: +300

The majority of observers have Tua going in round 3 or 4 and have him penciled in in a backup role. Most pundits are deducting points for his size, consistency and questionable decision-making – despite his nearly 70% completion rate and barely over ½ an interception per game.

But NFLbets believes even a “mere” multi-dimensional utility QB – a role the public consciousness seems to want to pigeonhole him into – will be in high-demand after a potential flurry in the first round. Quarterbacks expected to come off the board between prospective no. 1 overall Joe Burrow and Hurts are Tua, Justin Herbert, Jordan Love, Jacob Eason and Jake Fromm; the first four are essentially shoo-ins to go in the first round, and Eason is reportedly climbing draft boards to at least the upper half of the second round after a great combine performance.

But enough if we believe that Hurts is universally accepted as seventh-best QB available in the draft, the +115 offered on Round 2 in this prop is a sucker bet. In the past five NFL drafts, 34 quarterbacks have been selected in the first four rounds. Now check out the breakdown of that 34 by round:

Round 1, first half: 13 (or about 38.2% of the total)
Round 1, second half: 2 (5.9%)
Round 2: 2 (5.9%)
Round 3: 9 (26.5%)
Round 4: 8 (23.5%)

We could see some slight deviation from this trend in 2020 with both Love and Eason potentially getting their names called in the late first or second round, but NFLbets doesn’t believe that any amount of panic will drive Fromm or Hurts into the second round. Meanwhile, near the top of the third round sit Washington (at no. 66 overall), the Detroit Lions (no. 67) and the Carolina Panthers (no. 69), who may all have passed on QBs to this point, and each could certainly use at least a backup if not competition for the starting spot.

NFLbets is loving this bet. Take Jalen Hurts to be drafted in Round 3 of the 2020 NFL Draft at a nice payout of +140.

–written by Os Davis