Super Contest, week 5: Five point spread picks from NFLbets’ card

Thursday, 08 October 2020 15:56 EST

Despite some daring (read: thiiiiiiiis shy of insane) picks on our MyBookie Super Contest card last week which sank us, NFLbets is overly optimistic about week 5. Why? Because in their infinite wisdom and mercy, the MyBookie bookies decreed that prize money is paid to top predictors quarterly. In effect, then, despite a mostly brutal opening four weeks’ worth of pick-fiving, NFLbets is currently tied for first at 0-0-0 going into week 5. Nice.

So without further exposition, the following are NFL Bets’ five picks in the MB Super Contest.

Best bet: Pittsburgh Steelers -7 vs Philadelphia Eagles. Whether caused by the Covid-19 situation, the general evolution of the game into pass-wackiness, poorer player development in college or some combination thereof, the truth is that many NFL games in 2020 will come down to simple offense vs. offense.

This game is such a case. To cite just one stat, Carson Wentz leads the league with 7 interceptions through four games and the Eagles are second-worst in turnovers; the Steelers bring a top-10 rushing offense and a QB who’s thrown just 1 pick – albeit in three games. P.S. “Three games” means Pittsburgh is essentially coming off a bye week.

Seattle Seahawks -7 vs Minnesota Vikings. Maybe NFLbets should be warier about these pointspreads of 7 or more after last week’s debacle but the clever NFL bettor knows that if one trend should be completely ignored, it should be one’s own trends.

To wit: NFLbets suspects we bet on the Seahawks way too often and overestimate Seattle’s homefield advantage (particularly given the team’s current 4-7 ATS run in home games), but this offense is humming at 31 points minimum per game in 2020 and just might go for 40 here.  

Cleveland Browns +1½ vs Indianapolis Colts. Statistically, the Colts defense is no. 1 in quite a few areas – points allowed, first downs allowed, interceptions and net yards per pass attempt among them – but considering the schedule (at Minshew, vs Cousins, vs Darnold, at post-midnight Cinderella Foles) and the fact that it’s 2020, welllllll … as for betting on Cleveland to essentially win is a risky proposition: As demonstrated last week, the Browns have the talent to score in bunches, but will they produce…? They is way, NFLbets supposes, they call it gambling.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers -3½ vs Chicago Bears. How overrated can Nick Foles and these Chicago Bears get? Maybe, like NFLbets, the sportsbooks are considering homefield advantage as a factor, but can the absence of O.J. Howard be worth this much when Tom Brady connected with 9 receivers last week, including 5 he hit for touchdowns? Against a team that scored 11 last week…? Come on.

Carolina Panthers +1 at Atlanta Falcons. NFLbets realizes these NFC South games should generally be considered stayaways, but we’re rethinking due to scintillating play by the new-look Panthers and rookie-led coaching staff in addition to the daggers the Falcons have taken this season like clockwork. This should be the last week the sportsbook underrates the Panthers; Carolina’s been the underdog for all five games, but host the Bears in week 6…

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–written by Os Davis