Super Contest, week 6: What’s up with some of these pointspreads?

Saturday, 17 October 2020 13:24 EST

Onto week 6 in My Bookie’s pick-5 Super Contest and finally can NFLbets report a decent showing, going 4-1 with the sole losing pick the SU-winning Seattle Seahawks. Sadly, week 6 appears a bit more challenging, with a half-dozen pointspreads set within the 3½-4½ range, two games which are basically “pick ´ems” and a bunch at a touchdown or more.

So after the dust settled – with Covid concerns cancelling Thursday Night Football, we got an extra day to fill this sucker out – this is what NFLbets’ card for week 6 of the Super Contest looks like.

Best Bet: Carolina Panthers -1 vs Chicago Bears. By the Pythagorean Expectation (PE) metric, the Bears are easily the most overachieving (read: lucky) team in the NFL thus far by far in 2020, with an expected 2.6 wins somehow translating into a 4-1 SU record. Meanwhile, clever NFL bettors have adjusted their takes on the upstart Panthers, who just might make the playoffs – wacky!

Green Bay Packers -1½ at Tampa Bay Buccaneers. What are we missing about the 2020 Buccaneers that the esteem from pre-game shows and bookmakers alike apparently see? Are they not tied for last in penalties, including 28 in the past three games? Is not the Bucs’ passing game average and the running game nearly non-existent? And finally, isn’t this the team that went 4-of-14 on third down last week in losing to the Bears? A long week won’t be enough for Tampa Bay against potentially the top team in the league right now.

Los Angeles Rams -3½ at San Francisco 49ers. True enough, it’s tough to bet on the inconsistently-scoring Rams offense, but the Niners are a complete mess. Forget the Super Bowl Hangover: The 2020 San Francisco 49ers have full-on Super Bowl Ebola. The defending NFC champs are 2-3 SU against a schedule that may not include any .500-or-better teams by the end of the season, and Kyle Shanahan apparently has zero confidence in any of his three quarterbacks. So what if Jimmy Garoppolo assures he’s completely recovered from an ankle injury? We’re convinced Shanahan lost his playbook sometime before last season’s playoffs and has been improvising ever since – and ad libs are no match for Aaron Donald right now.

Cincinnati Bengals +8 at Indianapolis Colts. The Colts defense has run up impressive numbers in their first five games – though, like the 49ers, the competition had been suspect until last week’s against Cleveland: Depending on how you feel about Baker Mayfield, Joe Burrow may be the best QB that Indianapolis has faced this season. Whether Burrow can work miracles enough to make up for the Bengals’ shoddy offensive line is a serious question, but we believe he’ll keep his Bengals in the game.

Pittsburgh Steelers -4 vs Cleveland Browns. Six games this week are, as of Saturday, looking to kick off with pointspreads between 3½ and 4½; this is the only possible justification for NFLbets covering two on a single Super Contest card. We’re applying some reverse logic here in guessing the Steelers finish with a better record SU/ATS than the Browns; therefore, Pittsburgh should therefore defend home field in what might be a crucial game for the AFC North.

–written by Os Davis