Last week in the My Bookie Pick-5 Super Contest, NFLbets was … well, never mind how NFLbets did. We’ve got to trust the process … um, the mathematics, and try not to get bogged down by unwarranted superstition, i.e. never trust the Tennessee Titans and “Los Angeles” Chargers. We’ve got to forget how many times we’ve overestimated the Seattle Seahwaks, we’ve just got to take these one game at a time, etc8.
We’re playing multiple cards in the ’Contest; we’re trying the sawed-off shotgun approach this week. We already covered Indianapolis Colts +1 at Tennessee, and the following are our favorite picks otherwise…
Philadelphia Eagles -3 at New York Giants. This one NFLbets is playing based on sheer absurdity. If the Eagles lose this game, they’ll be 3-5-1 – and still 1 game up on the Giants! Beyond this, apparently NFL bettors are getting geeked on the G-men, who are playing well above expectations and are currently on a 5-1 ATS run.
Arizona Cardinals -2½ vs Buffalo Bills. Here’s another case of bettors distorting a line. Sure, the Bills’ 44-34 win over the Seahwaks was impressive, but this week their role is reversed: The Bills travel west as marginal underdogs rather than vice versa. O, and Arizona actually plays with a defense.
Miami Dolphins -1½ vs “Los Angeles” Chargers. In back-to-back showdowns of young stud QBs for Tua Tagovailoa, we’re backing the upwardly trending side in what is essentially a “pick ’em.”
Carolina Panthers +6 vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers. The way NFLbets sees it, the assimilation of Antonio Brown alone will take a couple of weeks to get past – or maybe the first real contender the Bucs played heretofore simply badly exposed an offense that can’t handle a pass rush. Would you believe Tampa Bay went 1 for 12 on 3rd and 4th down?
Minnesota Vikings -3 at Chicago Bears. Sure, the Vikings are on a 5-1 streak ATS, but who hasn’t been waiting for the offense-less Bears to regress to the mean already?
Las Vegas Raiders -4 vs Denver Broncos. Working theory on Denver’s ostensible homefield advantage: It only exists when the team is actually competitive, which, come to think of it, is how homefield advantage usually works. In 2020, the Broncos are 1-3 SU/2-2 ATS in Denver and NFLbets is thinking that the only airing out by a QB this week will be from the visitor’s side.
–written by Os Davis
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