Thursday Night Football odds, spread, prediction – Confirmation bias, schmonfirmation bias!

Confirmation bias is a tricky thing. The longer you’re into NFL betting, the better one gets at certain types of woolly thinking that can shrink the bankroll. Overreacting to week 1 is one such pitfall that can doom the otherwise decent bettor into two or three weeks’ worth of terrible bets.

But then (to most people) there are the 2022 Buffalo Bills – and to NFLbets, the Kansas City Chiefs. NFLbets has been drinking the Kansas City kool-aid since the preseason week 1 games; we’ve covered the Chiefs to win the most games in the NFL, to win the Super Bowl, the AFC and the AFC West. We’re figuring Kansas City to finish the season at around 15-2, and we’ve been marveling at how ignored they went as a vogue Super Bowl pick in favor of teams like Buffalo, Green Bay, San Francisco and even the Los Angeles Chargers.

But as all the above-mentioned save the Bills underwhelmed majestically on opening week – naturally, we be peeking at those ever-frustrating Chargers shortly – the Chiefs ran as machine-precise as ever in a 44-21 crushing of both the Arizona Cardinals and the Arizona Cardinals’ hopes of adequacy this season. “No Kareem Hunt?” rhetorically asked the Chiefs, and QB Patrick Mahomes answered, “No problem.” Mahomes found nine different receivers, and connected with four for touchdowns. The defense didn’t notch any turnovers, but hardly needed to in keeping the Cards to 3-of-12 on third-down conversions and the longest play allowed just 24 yards.

In short, the Chiefs in week 1 met all of NFLbets’ over-expectations. So how bullish on Kansas City can we allow ourselves on Thursday Night Football, with a line of

Los Angeles Chargers +4 at Kansas City Chiefs, over/under 54 points

Last week, the Chargers pulled off the 24-19 SU/ATS win over the Las Vegas Raiders, performing quite well in most areas. The offensive line, including last-minute named starter RT Trey Pipkins, allowed zero sacks and the Chargers had no turnovers – excepting one turnover on downs, an improvement over the record-setting performance the Chiefs enjoying in the teams’ last meeting.

In addition, QB Justin Herbert hit three WRs for TDs – and all three (DeAndre Carter, Gerald Everett and Zander Horvath) are new to the Chargers. The defense couldn’t stop DaVante Adams, but did enjoy contributing three interceptions. All in all, a solid effort for the team that, in most fans’ minds, should challenge the Chiefs in the AFC West.

At this point, we may consider Kansas City’s rather good record on Thursdays. Since Andy Reid took over as head coach, the Chiefs are 6-4 SU/ATS, including the aforementioned win over the Chargers last season and are 3-0 on TNF since 2019; plus, Reid over his career as HC is a crazy 10-5 SU/ATS. Even more interesting is that overs are 11-4 in Reid-coached Thursday games.

Normally here NFLbets would have to decide whether to ride or fade the trends, but after last week, we’re keeping it simple. Until somebody slows down this Chiefs team, which is averaging just under 36.6 points per game over the past nine games, NFLbets is betting on them – and betting them to continue scoring loads of points. Take the Kansas City Chiefs -4 vs the Chargers and take the over on an O/U of 54 points.

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