As NFLbets says (writes?) every year: Predicting the Super Bowl at the beginning of the season is folly – and also a lot of fun. If you’re wagering on the ultimate chaos-defying bet in all of sports betting, though, just be sure to bet proverbially responsibly.
After all, consider this: How many times has your preseason Super Bowl predication hit? Even in the 2010s when you could chalk the New England Patriots in on the AFC side, who saw the Nick Foles-led 2017 Philadelphia Eagles coming? Or the 2011 New York Giants?
Since the early 1990s, about the only Super Bowl matchup that was realistically imaginable was that of XLIX, with the defending champion Seattle Seahawks against those pesky Patriots. That Super Bowl was also quite the outlier for several reasons: the sole Super Bowl to kickoff with a point spread of “PK”, a rare matchup of conference no. 1 seeds which was won on the final play.
We may generally be confident in picking a Super Bowl featuring returning champions or those evolving through playoff losses, but that confidence is an illusion. You don’t know squat.
Having said that…
NFLbets just doesn’t get the love – and the handle on the “To Win Super Bowl LVII” prop on the Buffalo Bills. Or for that matter, the Los Angeles Chargers. Yes, we see that the Bills appear to be taking the steps to a championship, with a top-5 franchise quarterback, an All-Pro wide receiver, last season’s no. 1 defense in points allowed (now with Von Miller!) and has made advancements in the playoffs.
The Chargers, meanwhile, have one of the league’s top rosters on paper led by young stud QB Justin Herbert and fantasy darlings like RB Austin Ekeler and WR Keenan Allen.
But hey, the Bills brought the house, playing impeccably against Kansas City in the divisional round playoff game last season – and still lost. And how anyone can back a team that closed the previous year going 1-3 SU/ATS and missing the playoffs by losing to an inferior team with an interim head coach is beyond us.
Seriously, we’d sooner go with the Cincinnati Bengals but for the difficulties inherent in repeating.
NFLbets is going with a team that’s won two of the past three AFC Championships, who has the best quarterback in the league and who might have been in Super Bowl LVI if not for the most dramatic 30 minutes’ worth of statistical regression ever witnessed.
Finally, there are some excellent hedging opportunities, should the Bills ultimately become a real-time, bona fide threat to win Super Bowl LVII: Just keep betting on Buffalo straight through the playoffs. If we get a Chiefs-Bills AFC Championship game, that’s a win-win. Take the Kansas City Chiefs to win the AFC at +550.
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