How to bet the pointspread for the Game of the Year – Buffalo Bills -2½ at Kansas City

All right, who’s ready for the game of the year, 2022 NFL season edition? That’s right, we’re talking

Buffalo Bills -2½ at Kansas City Chiefs, over/under 54 points

Whereas normally NFLbets would start making the case for one team or the other, citing precedent, stats and trends to defend our investment in betting the game. For the records, the major trends are pointing in somewhat contradictory directions: Kansas City (currently 4-1 SU/2-3 ATS) are thus far 3-1 SU/ATS, including last season’s thrilling AFC divisional round game, against Buffalo (4-1 SU/3-1-1 ATS) in the Reid ‘n’ Mahomes Era. In the four games, the over hit three times.

But in this instance, NFLbets is keeping it simple: We’re just not betting against Patrick Mahomes and these Chiefs – really the top team in the AFC three years running – *as an underdog AT HOME*.

Seriously, folks, we know everyone wants to crown the new king and all, but let’s maintain a grip on reality here. In all games since 2018, the Chiefs have been favored 71 times against just 10 games played as underdogs. Kansas City went 6-4 SU/7-2-1 ATS in those 10 games, including – get this – marks of 5-2 SU/6-0-1 ATS, with the SU losses coming in away games against the New England Patriots and Los Angeles Rams in the season which would culminate in those teams playing in the Super Bowl.

Naturally, the impulse would be to fade these trends, ignore the Chiefs’ 2-3 ATS mark and take the Bills. But check out this final stat: Mahomes and the Chiefs playing as underdogs is so rare that Mahomes has *literally never played* as a home ’dog. Crazy!

So, yes, sure, maybe the Buffalo Bills are the best team in the NFL this season, and maybe they’re destined to finally win a Super Bowl – but right now we’re betting on this week 6 game and NFLbets just is not betting against these Chiefs with this dude at QB. Take the Kansas City Chiefs +2½ vs Buffalo.

– written by Os Davis

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