How to bet the two TD point spread, part 2: Tennessee Titans +13 at Kansas City Chiefs, over/under 45 points

06 November 2022

NFlbets marvels once more about the bookmakers initially setting the point spreads for three games in week 9: Philadelphia Eagles -13½ at Houston Texans, ending up in an Eagles SU win and a Texans ATS win; for Sunday, Buffalo Bills at New York Jets opened at Bills -13 but dropped to Bills -11; and the Sunday Night Football matchup:

Tennessee Titans -13½ at the Kansas City Chiefs, over 45½ points

Still moving around on Sunday, some bookmakers dipped from Titans -13 to Titans -12 before jumping back up to Titans -13½ on game day. In the game of “Which Of These Things Is Not Like The Other,” this game differs from the other games of massive poinspread in that Kansas City is playing at home and they’re taking on a division-leader in Tennessee. NFLbets figures there’s probably a reason or two why this particular point spread is so high, so we’re looking for reasons *not* to bet the Chiefs in this game.

Here’s another occasion to post a couple of stats on overall trends:

• Since 2013, underdogs of 13½ points are a predictable-enough 11-84 SU, but an up-to-spec 49-45-1 ATS. Such big underdogs at home in the same timespan are a more realistic 8-9-1 ATS; and
• In 2022, 36 of 123 games – or about 29.25% – have been decided by more than 13 points in 2022. Last season, 102 of 272 regular-season games ended up in such a victory, representing a 37.5%; and in ’19 (we’re skipping over the bizzarry of Covid-strangled 2020), the percentage of blowouts was nearly 48.5%!

However, one stat stands above all others and is specific to the entire era of Reid & Mahomes in Kansas City. Once again, the Chiefs have the highest-scoring offense in the league, averaging 31.8 points per game thus far in 2022. How dominant have they been in a generally low-scoring season? Put it this way: 40 or more points have been scored by a team in a sincgle game this season. Only the Chiefs have done so more than once, and they’ve done it three times.

Also once again are the Chiefs proving maddeningly tricky for NFL bettors. In 2021, the Chiefs were 12-5 SU, but just 8-9 ATS; in their championship-defending season of ’20, the 14-2 Chiefs were 7-9 SU. The scoreboard-spinning reputation clearly has preceded this team.

So with the Chiefs looking to shred defenses this season, the question is: Can the Titans keep up? Back in week 2, Tennessee got properly smoked by Buffalo’s no. 2 overall offense as a 10-point underdog, 41-7. Since then, of course, Derrick Henry has again become Derrick Henry, culminating in a monstrous 219-yard show against the hapless Houston Texans defense. Surely conventional wisdom suggests the Titans slow the game down, keep the ball out of Mahomes’s hands, etc.

Could this work? Possibly. The Titans are averaging 18.9 points per game in 2022. Thus the Chiefs would need 33 points to cover in this game. Since 2018, Kansas City has scored 33 or more in 30 of 72 regular-season games and have managed to do so while also losing the time-of-possession battle. All things equal and average, the Chiefs would appear to have no worse than a 22.2% chance of not covering that big point spread.

Is NFLbets willing to take a 2-in-9 chance? Sure, because here’s the stat we’re really looking at: The Titans are on a 5-0 SU/ATS based on a run which includes vs Las Vegas, at Indianapolis, at Washington, vs Indianapolis, at Houston. There’s a reason this point spread is so high, and that reason is because the oddsmakers are looking for the Titans to lose ATS… Take the Kansas City Chiefs -13½ vs Tennessee.

– written by Os Davis