NFL week 11 game scores, adjusted for point spreads

Week 11 destroyed more illusions for the national TV viewer particularly regarding the league’s more overrated teams (Green Bay, Buffalo, Minnesota – we’re looking at you) while opening up some nice betting possibilities for the future…

Below runs the Official NFLbets ATS-Adjusted Scoreboard™ for week 11, a rundown of results adjusting for bettors by factoring in the point spread for each game at kickoff. Note: Scores in bold denote those games in which the SU winner did not cover ATS.

• Tennessee Titans 17 at Green Bay Packers 14
• New England Patriots 6½, New York Jets 3. As much as NFLbets is luxuriating in the schadenfreude of watching the decline of the Patriots and Packers, the probability that we’ll not get a chance to bet against either in the 2022 playoffs is a bit of a bummer.

Carolina Panthers 3 at Baltimore Ravens 0. With the Ravens’ ATS loss, favorites of 10½ points or more in 2022 drop to 2-7 ATS despite a 6-3 SU mark. Not that Ravens -13 was necessarily a bad call: The 13 points Baltimore strung together was barely more than half their average game total this season…

• Detroit Lions 31 at New York Giants 15
• Washington Commanders 20 at Houston Texans 10. Now that the 2022 NFL season is into its second half, NFL bettors must consider which overachieving teams plummet back to Earth and which underwhelming teams play up to expected levels. After week 11, we’re thinking the Giants (on a 1-2 SU/ATS falter after starting 6-1) represent the former, while their division mate Commanders (5-1 SU/5-0-1 ATS chasing their 1-4 SU/ATS start) are the latter…

• Buffalo Bills 23½, Cleveland Browns 23. How many NFL bettors outside of western New York holding a “Bills to Win Super Bowl LVII” ticket are feeling especially confident about cashing in? But we can all learn from this and in preseason 2023 avoid betting the prohibitive favorite AFC championship-losing Miami Dolphins, right? Yeah, probably not.

Indianapolis Colts 16, Philadelphia Eagles 10½. Jeff Saturday is doing just enough to keep his job, and so NFLbets is looking forward to the preseason hype in 2023 on his plucky-if-undertalented Indianapolis Colts – directly followed by a nice 0-7 SU start…

• Atlanta Falcons 24½, Chicago Bears 24. Could it be safe to bet the Falcons again? This ATS win snapped an 0-3-1 ATS slide, which in turn followed a ridiculous 6-0 ATS start to 2022. Even sicker: At 5-6 SU, this team is still is the running to *take the NFC South*.

• Las Vegas Raiders 22, Denver Broncos 13½
• New Orleans Saints 24½, Los Angeles Rams 20. Just about the only entity in the NFL which visibly crumbled faster than Russell Wilson are the Rams, who have little to look forward to other than trading Jalen Ramsey and Cooper Kupp for draft picks…

• Dallas Cowboys 38½ at Minnesota Vikings 3. Talk about exposing frauds, eh? At least now we can all go back to planning on betting against Minnesota against the NFC’s no. 7 seed – potentially Washington, who took the Vikings to a 3-point push in week 9 – in the playoffs.

• Cincinnati Bengals 33½ at Pittsburgh Steelers 30. Speaking (writing?) of betting the playoffs, NFL bettors might do well to recall that the Bengals started the 2021 regular season at 5-4 SU/4-4-1 ATS before closing 5-3 SU/6-2 ATS and whipping off a 3-1 SU/4-0 ATS run through the Super Bowl. This win against the Steelers puts them on a 4-1 SU/ATS streak and, despite the absence of Jamarr Chase, the defending AFC champions are not to be trifled with.

Los Angeles Chargers 27, Kansas City Chiefs 25. Patrick Mahomes’s miraculous comebacks may be great for fans, but make for grievous losses when coupled with puffed-up point spreads that Kansas City is constantly giving: Since kickoff 2021, the Chiefs are now 14-16 ATS against a 22-8 SU mark. What’s more, when K.C. is favored by just 4 points or more, they’re 8-14 ATS. Guess it’s money line bets from here on in.

• San Francisco 49ers 30 at Arizona Cardinals 10. Jimmy Garoppolo: The man, the myth, the legend, the future New York Jets quarterback…

– written by Os Davis

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