In week 12, home teams dominated (at least ATS). Beginning on Thanksgiving Day and continuing through the conclusion of Saints-49ers, homers were on a 13-0 run against the spread (and 10-3 SU). Then the Las Vegas Raiders deduced the Seahawks have no pass rush and the “12th Man” was no factor (no game ball for you!). Home teams ended up 14-2 ATS anyway, together with a 10-6 SU week by favorites (including the loss by the Colts, who really had no business getting posted as favorites), established some normalcy into the 2022 NFL betting season.
At least for a week.
Below runs the Official NFLbets ATS-Adjusted Scoreboard™ for week 12, a rundown of results adjusting for bettors by factoring in the point spread for each game at kickoff. Note: Scores in bold denote those games in which the SU winner did not cover ATS.
• Detroit Lions 25, Buffalo Bills 18½
• New York Giants 20 at Dallas Cowboys 18
• Minnesota Vikings 30½, New England Patriots 26. NFLbets commented on these games already over here, but we’ll add this: How about that last garbage-time TD flipping pointspreads into the Cowboys’ laps while also flipping the over/under from under to over? Ugly!
• Carolina Panthers 22, Denver Broncos 10. For some members of the Broncos and sports media figures, this performance was the last straw for Russell Wilson. Here’s Richard Sherman expressing a common opinion about Wilson’s recent play and … wait a minute, this is from one month ago…
• Miami Dolphins 16, Houston Texans 15
• Kansas City Chiefs 10½, Los Angeles Rams 10. With these two wins, favorites of 10½ points or more are up to 4-7 ATS (and 8-3 SU) in 2022. Obviously, a bit more normalcy is needed in this area…
• Arizona Cardinals 24, Los Angeles Chargers 22½
• Jacksonville Jaguars 28, Baltimore Ravens 23½ – two games won with a 2-point conversion on the game’s final play. Though NFLbets is certain (the few) Chargers fans were thrilled with the win, concern that the Bolts might actually sneak into the playoffs based on this and thus Brandon Staley gets extension. Then again…
• New York Jets 24, Chicago Bears 10. …is an early sign that Mike White might be just enough quarterback to land the Jets that no. 7 seed in the AFC.
• Washington Commanders 15, Atlanta Falcons 13
• Cincinnati Bengals 19½, Tennessee Titans 16. NFLbets has been harping on this, but the Titans’ 8-0 ATS run to start the season was quite the anomaly. And the Falcons may be Tennessee’s cautionary tale: After starting 6-0 ATS, this loss to Washington dropped ’em to 1-4-1 ATS since – not necessarily the blueprint for the remainder of the Titans’ season, but betting on them will certainly be trickier in the second half…
• Las Vegas Raiders 40 at Seattle Seahawks 31
• San Francisco 49ers 4, New Orleans Saints 0. It’s getting more and more difficult to believe the 2022 Seahawks and 2022 49ers exist in the same dimension, never mind the same division.
• Cleveland Browns 23, Tampa Bay Buccaneers 14
• Philadelphia Eagles 33½, Green Bay Packers 33. Just when you think things can’t spin more out of control for Tom Brady’s Buccaneers or Aaron Rodgers’s Packers, well, reality check. The former is underperforming and the latter simply isn’t that good this season.
• Pittsburgh Steelers 24 at Indianapolis Colts 14½. Wait, the Colts were really favored in this game…?
– written by Os Davis