Week 10 was likely a difficult one for many NFL bettors, with a few surprises in high-profile games (which we may not necessarily view as massive upsets in hindsight a couple months from now); the Tennessee Titans won ATS *again*, threatening for longest such streak this season; and a head coach with literally zero coaching experience at all got his team a SU win.
But at least this week’s losses can beget some seasonal gains. For example, the Washington Commanders’ SU/ATS loss brought double-digit underdogs up to 9-6 ATS despite just a 3-12 SU mark – and since week 8, big underdogs are a nice 5-2 ATS. Time to start taking a harder look at those 10½-point ’dogs…
Below runs the Official NFLbets ATS-Adjusted Scoreboard™ for week 10, a rundown of results adjusting for bettors by factoring in the point spread for each game at kickoff. Note: Scores in bold denote those games in which the SU winner did not cover ATS.
• Carolina Panthers 25, Atlanta Falcons 15. What’s worse than attempting to bet these NFC South intradvisional games? An NFC South intradivisional game scheduled on Thursday or Monday, when no other NFL betting options exist!
Also of note: After starting the season 6-0 ATS, Carolina has subsequently gone 0-3-1 ATS – one more reminder that regression to the mean is real.
• Tampa Bay Buccaneers 18½, Seattle Seahawks 16. If you were betting the CFL playoffs last weekend, you had the opportunity to
lose win money in three different countries by 10am EST!
• Tennessee Titans 14½, Denver Broncos 10. Similarly to the Panthers are the Titans, who started the season 0-2 ATS and have subsequently run off this season’s longest streak ATS at seven wins. No doubt NFL bettors are finding betting on the Broncos increasingly difficult, particularly when getting just 2½ points or so; in week 11, however, you have to think that the spectre of regression is coming for Tennessee…
• Kansas City Chiefs 18, Jacksonville Jaguars 17. Kansas City is now up to 4-5 ATS despite their 7-2 record SU. Infuriatingly, these numbers are totally indicative of the Chiefs of Reid & Mahomes: Since 2020, the Chiefs in all games are 37-11 SU, yet a humdrum 22-26 ATS. When will the oddsmakers get more reasonable about Chiefs lines? And when we will stop betting them minus the points…?
• Miami Dolphins 35½, Cleveland Browns 17. ‘’Member when Browns backers looked optimistically at the schedule and declared that, with DeShaun Watson coming back in week 13, the Browns could still be a contender? Well, with two weeks to go, a total of three AFC teams have a worse record than Cleveland’s and they’re two games back of Cincinnati, New England and the L.A. Chargers for the seventh playoff spot. The next two games are vs Buffalo and at Tampa Bay. The dream may be dead for Browns fans. Again.
• Detroit Lions 31 at Chicago Bears 27½ is probably indication that we can stop taking the 2022 Chicago Bears seriously…
• New York Giants 19½, Houston Texans 17. …though the same cannot be said of the Giants, who are already rounding into form as a 10- to 11-win team -- and a marvelous target to bet against in round one of the playoffs.
• Pittsburgh Steelers 20, New Orleans Saints 9. At season’s end, the historical record will show only that 2022 was the first NFL season in which Mike Tomlin coached a sub-.500 Steelers team – which is too bad, because these Steelers certainly don’t look back when playing against a truly mediocre side like the Saints.
• Indianapolis Colts 25 at Las Vegas Raiders 16. Wow, these Raiders are certainly capable of losing to anyone in the league.
• Arizona Cardinals 27 at Los Angeles Rams 14½. Question: What defending Super Bowl champion has been as snakebitten at the 2022 Los Angeles Rams? We’ll give you time…
• Los Angeles Chargers 16 at San Francisco 49ers 14½. Fascinating how much respect the Chargers get from both fans and oddsmakers. At 26-32 SU/26-28-4 ATS since winning their last playoff game, 2022 is shaping up as yet another season in which a talented roster on paper loses consistently on the field.
• Minnesota Vikings 33, Buffalo Bills 23½
• Green Bay Packers 31, Dallas Cowboys 24
• Washington Commanders 32 at Philadelphia Eagles 10½. Were the three shocking results in these high-profile games really that shocking…? The Vikings had the league’s second-best win-loss record going into the Bills game; Dak Prescott has a reputation for throwing games away; and the Eagles were destined to lose sooner rather than later, so why not a division rival who are on a roll? NFL betting is easy – if you can stay away from the huge pointspreads…
– written by Os Davis