Monday Night Football betting line, odds, picks – Denver Broncos +4½ at L.A. Chargers

In most, likesay, normal NFL seasons, NFLbets would have no hesitance whatsoever in betting a Monday Night Football line like

Denver Broncos +4½ at Los Angeles Chargers, over/under 45½ points

But this here is the 2022 NFL season, when after week 6, many teams’ win-loss records make no sense in relation to, for example, quarterback performance (the Atlanta Falcons are 3-3 SU and 6-0 ATS while going for just 159.2 yards passing per game) or pass defense (the New York Giants are 5-1 SU/ATS, unders are 4-1-1 in Giants games and yet they’ve managed one interception total).

As for homefield advantage, well, excuse the placekicking of a long-dead horse, but this season home teams are a measly 46-44-1 SU/42-46-3 ATS.

So NFLbets will look before leaping on this surprisingly dismal Monday Night Football matchup and ask: Is there a case for the Broncos covering here?

There is the tired reasoning that any game against the Chargers is Los Angeles is essentially a home game. Enough if we ignore the above general trend, note that in the Broncos’ post-Manning Era beginning on Opening Day 2016, the Broncos are 25-27 SU/25-25-2 ATS in home games after the SU/ATS OT loss to Indianapolis last week. You’ve also got to guess that part of Denver’s perceived homefield advantage is connected with geography, like the Broncos’ blood is thinner or something.

In terms of injuries, the usually ridden Chargers are reasonably stocked for this game. Sure, Keenan Allen is done for at least one more week, OT Rashawn Slater is out for most of the season and WR Joey Bosa is out for the season, but this is all old news at this point. Additionally, K Dustin Hopkins returns this week as well.

The strengths of these Broncos are all on defense. This unit is ranked no. 3 in both points allowed and yardage allowed, and is top-10 in most other statistical categories except turnovers, at which they’re middle of the pack. On the other side is a mostly top-10 offense that has scored 30 or more in the past two games and 24 or more in four this season; the Broncos haven’t topped 23 in a game and are averaging 15.0 ppg, “good” for 32nd-“best” in the league.

The 2022 season may be bizarre week-to-week, but the rationale for taking the Broncos outright is damn close to non-existent. In fact, the best argument to be made for Denver is Brandon Staley. Staley’s rather, likesay, questionable decision-making has been driving NFL bettors insane all season. The Chargers have allowed the Raiders and Texans wins and/or backdoor covers, they did allow the Chiefs to come back in week 2, and nearly gave the game away to the Browns last week probably based on a typo in the analytics data.

This season, Staley’s penchant for making exactly the wrong call has been equaled by only Kliff Kingsbury in Arizona and surpassed only by … Nathaniel Hackett. That’s one last box ticked. Take the Los Angeles Chargers -4½ against Denver.

– written by Os Davis