After a washout in week 6, NFLbets got this one started right by taking the New York Giants +4½ against the Philadelphia Eagles on Thursday Night football. We were feeling good until giving this week’s My Bookie Super Challenge pick-5 contest card.
In several cases, games pitted like trend against like trend. A few like Detroit Lions +2½ at Atlanta Falcons and San Francisco 49ers +2 at New England Patriots scream “stay away!” while stuff like Cleveland Browns -3 at Cincinnati Bengals feels like a sucker bet whichever way you play.
But in the end, we gotta fill out a card, right? So this is what we came up with…
Buffalo Bills -11 at New York Jets. Mark this down in pen right now: You must bet against the Jets minus whatever points as long as Adam Gase remains head coach. And after he’s fired, stay away from Jets games for a week or two, and then get back to going against them. After the six weeks, the 2020 New York Jets perfectly resemble a 1-15 team.
Green Bay Packers -4½ at Houston Texans. This is a risky pick not because the Packers’ tenuous offense was exposed against Tampa Bay, the first above-average D they’d played thus far. – the Texans D is bottom-5 in points allowed, turnovers forced, most rushing categories, etc. – but because of the numbers. Green Bay’s record thus far is 4-1 SU/ATS; the Texans are 1-5 SU/ATS. This is why it’s called the Super Challenge, NFLbets supposes.
Arizona Cardinals +3½ vs Seattle Seahawks. At 5-0 SU, the Seahawks aren’t necessarily *due* for a loss, but the numbers are stacking up against them and the Cardinals’ offense is not the sort Seattle wants to face right now. The Seattle D has a reputation for poor play, but the actual results have been intriguing. Yes, they’re no. 1 in allowing yardage, as the average opponent is managing to outduel Russell “I Run Up 400 Yards In My Sleep These Days” Wilson. The Seahawks rank 15th in points allowed, however, and are currently no. 1 in turnovers. The Cardinals offense has committed just 11 turnovers all season and are no. 5 in yardage per game. Arizona could very well win this one outright.
Kansas City Chiefs -9 at Denver Broncos. Guess who suddenly has the best rushing game in the NFL? Yep, the defending champion Kansas City Chiefs. This is a high point spread for sure, but Denver has not yet seen runners like this yet.
Los Angeles Rams -6 vs Chicago Bears. It’s tough to back a team minus-6 with an offense that seems to have trouble scoring 6 points, but the truth is the Rams have ranked top 5 in Football Outsiders’ offensive DVOA metric all season. NFLbets is banking on the mathematics over Nick Foles’s magic – at 5-1, the Bears have already exceeded their Pythagorean Expectation (PE) wins by 1.8. Plus, Aaron Donald.
–written by Os Davis
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