Who would’ve guessed that Jameis Winston was the savior for the New Orleans Saints? Nevertheless, here we are: The NFC South-winning team of 2021 has taken a 5-2 SU/4-3 ATS start until Winston was declared done for the season after the week 8 against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and plummeted to 5-6 SU/ATS.
On Thursday Night Football this week, the Saints host the Dallas Cowboys, again one of the league’s more unpredictable teams game to game, who have drawn a still rather high handicap. Currently, the line reads
Making matters worse for the Saints is that Alvin Kamara will not start, but both Amari Cooper and CeeDee Lamb return for the Cowboys. Head coach Mike McCarthy is also out due to Covid-19 rules, but both generally and specifically such a temporary loss doesn’t seem very devastating. Hell, the Arizona Cardinals turned in arguably their most impressive performance with Kliff Kingsbury and a couple other coaches, a 37-14 shellacking of Cleveland.
Worst of all for New Orleans, Dallas can play to all their strengths and weaknesses. The Saints bring a top-5 rushing defense and an average pass defense statistically; whereas this could be concerning for a Cowboys team leaning on Ezekiel Elliott, Zeek has slowly become a nearly disused part of Dallas offense: In the past six games, Elliott has gone for 12½ carries and 44.66 yards per game – but he’s been good for just under 5 catches and 29 receiving ypg.
And while the defense has had a couple of 30-burgers served up in the past four games, it’s statistically a top-10 unit and surely not fearing anything from essentially a second-string offense (including at both tackle spots, where starters are likely out for this game). On the other hand, the Saints have managed to score 20 or more points three times on the aforementioned 4-game losing streak with about as little weaponry as they’re going with in week 13: This is clearly the sportsbooks’ impetus for putting up lines with equal to a score of Cowboys, 27-20 or 26-20.
But you know … NFLbets isn’t buying it. We just can’t see from where the Saints points will come, particularly after putting up just 9 at home against Buffalo last week. Take the Dallas Cowboys -6½ at New Orleans and take the under on an O/U of 46 points.
–written by Os Davis
Os Davis has been covering sports for longer than he’d care to admit. For personality, check his Twitter feed; for professional acumen, here’s his Linkedin profile.
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