One way of looking at this week’s Thursday Night Football game is as a matchup between teams on the playoff bubble pitting veteran coaches in a leave-it-all-on-the-field battle. Alternatively – albeit admittedly far less marketably – one might see a team who should have lost to the pitiable 2021 Detroit Lions versus a team who actually did lose to the pitiable 2021 Detroit Lions while getting outplayed by Jared Goff and outcoached by Dan Campbell.
This sad scenario is what awaits bettors looking to wager on
When NFL bettors consider Thursday night games, he/she usually begins by considering the short week. Taking care of that formality, we find that Pittsburgh has gone 8-7 SU/7-7-1 ATS in Thursday games since Mike Tomlin became head coach in 2007 while Minnesota under Mike Zimmer since ’14 are an interesting 2-5 SU but 4-3 ATS – note too that the two SU wins came on the only occasions in which the Vikings were favored.
Another additional popular perception is that games against the Baltimore Ravens tend to wear down the Steelers for the following week. As this belief is popularly held but rarely quantified, NFLbets embarked on some minor number-crunching. We found that, since 2008 when Jim Harbaugh took over as head coach in Baltimore:
• versus the Ravens, the Steelers are 16-14 SU/14-14-2 ATS;
• in games directly following a Ravens meetup, the Steelers are 16-12 SU and 12-14-2 ATS (the two-game discrepancy results from Baltimore twice ending Pittsburgh’s season in the playoffs); and
• in all other games, the Steelers are an impressive 119-58-2 SU (for a winning percentage of .670) and 91-83-1 (.523) ATS.
The conclusion: Apparently the Ravens do traditionally beat the iron out of the Steelers, for two weeks reducing to mediocre a team otherwise good for an 11-5 season on average. Clearly, these AFC North intradivision games have earned their grueling reputation, and suggest that Pittsburgh may not be worth the betting this week.
But on the opposite side of the field are the Vikings, a team which might be playing with an interim head coach this week, were not this game scheduled for Thursday. In losing to the heretofore hapless Lions, the Vikes not only must live with the ignominy but now find themselves in 9th place in the NFC, one game behind the Washington FT and San Francisco 49ers, incomplete teams at best, and a ½-game back of the Philadelphia Eagles, who haven’t beaten a winning team all year. Added to the awareness that Kirk Cousins is the starting QB and we can reasonably assume that “demoralized” doesn’t quite sum up the Vikings’ current general psychological makeup.
This is of course an assumption only.
Conclusion #2: The over/under may offer better opportunity here. Overs are 5-2 in the last seven Vikings games, and Minnesota has scored at least 26 in six of the last seven. Led by the statue-quick Ben Roethlisberger, the Steelers have meanwhile been a lot lower-watt lately but the over has nevertheless gone 4-3-1 in their past eight.
But here’s a trend worthy of the fade: From 2016 to ’20, unders were a perfectly reasonable 35-38 in Thursday Night Football games; in 2021, the under is on a ridiculous 10-3 run on TNF. Pittsburgh brings a defense that’s average against the pass and bottom-10 against the run; the Minnesota D is third-to-last in total yards allowed, second-to-last in rushing yards allowed and below average in virtually every other statistical area.
In the final analysis, the Steelers may be beaten up and the Vikings may be bummed out but yards will be gained (particularly on the ground; Najee Harris fantasy owners should be pleased) and touchdowns will be scored. Take the over on an O/U of 44 points.
–written by Os Davis
Os Davis has been covering sports for longer than he’d care to admit. For personality, check his Twitter feed; for professional acumen, here’s his Linkedin profile.
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