NFL proposition bets, futures: Facing up to the Buffalo Bills

What is the problem NFLbets has in facing up to the 2022 Buffalo Bills? We’ve got to chalk it up to the trauma of losing money on the 1990s version of the franchise in four consecutive Super Bowls. And we’re not just talking on Bills-plus-the-points – even the thickest of NFL bettors wised up to that pretty quick – but losing on over/unders, player props, you name it. Talk about defying expectations…

So maybe our hesitance to jump on the chockful Buffalo bandwagon is founded on an irrational 30-year-old fear.

Alternatively, reticence to bet on these Bills may be utterly justifiable considering a) closer examination of Buffalo’s 2021 performance and b) the level of competition they’re likely to meet in the AFC playoffs alone this season. In any case, NFLbets can’t help thinking the Bills are overrated and/or the other possible seven or eight AFC playoff teams are mostly underrated. Just look at some of these odds on proposition bets and futures:

• over/under win total: 12 (-130, -110)
• To make/miss the playoffs: -600/+375
• to win AFC East: -220
• to win AFC: +280
• to win Super Bowl LVII: +550

NFLbets is desperate enough to parse this out that we’re resorting to bulletpoints.

The argument for the Buffalo Bills in 2022:

• They’re returning every key player from last year’s no. 3 offense in points scored and most from the no. 1 defense in points allowed.

• They picked up OG Roger Saffold, DE Von Miller and DTs DQuan Jones and Time Settle in free agency.

• Josh Allen is a top-5 quarterback in the NFL, and Allen-to-Diggs is one of the league’s most fearsome batteries.

• the competition in the AFC East likely won’t be up to the Bllls this year, and 7 of the last 8 Bills games are against teams expected to be marginal at best.

The argument against the Buffalo Bills in 2022:

• Bills were 2-4 SU/ATS against playoff teams, 9-2 SU/8-3 ATS against all others in 2021. Included in this year’s schedule are games at the Rams on opening day, at Baltimore, at Kansas City, vs Green Bay, vs Minnesota and at Cincinnati – all in the first 11 games. 

• OC Brian Daboll is gone (though to be fair, Daboll started looking a lot more like an offensive genius after the Bills acquired Stefon Diggs).

• The team’s defensive line acquisitions were nice, though Miller is probably past his prime, while Harrison Phillips (to Minnesota) and Mario Addison (to Houston) may be greater losses.

• And one more time: Too many legitimate contenders from the AFC await.

In the end, none of the above-listed offerings look very appealing at all. 12 wins in the over/under total wins prop seems way too high, but look at the payouts on either side. The better bet there would probably be to take under 12 wins on the Buffalo Bills and then hedge in the last week or two if an 11-6 mark is threatened.

Otherwise, NFLbets doesn’t like any of these lines on the Bills, particularly as an odds-on favorite to win the Super Bowl despite not getting to a conference championship game since the 1990s. (Plenty of time to bet on the NFL playoffs in January, anyway…) So for now we’ll just reiterate a previous recommendation: take the Bills and Dolphins in an AFC East Straight Forecast prop at +200.

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