“Pick Five” NFL Betting Contest, week 11 – We can’t go on with suspicious lines

19 November 2022

is it NFLbets or are there a disproportionate number of suspicious lines/point spreads posted for week 11? Despite the seeming bizarreness, the clever NFL bettor cannot let fishiness be a guide, though – and we’re leaning in this week to the better team, if not exactly without reservation…

On the week 11 “Pick Five” NFL betting contest card, NFLbets has:

• Philadelphia Eagles -6½ at Indianapolis Colts. So the Eagles dropped their first game to fall to 8-1 SU/5-4 ATS in week 1. But did anyone outside the greater Philadelphia area honestly believe this team would go undefeated? And how else would one expect an NFC East team to lose its first game other than to an in-division rival? Certainly the currently no. 1 overall seed in the NFC should be getting more than one TD in a dome to a bottom-5 team with a head coach working his second game, don’t they? What are we missing here…?
• Minnesota Vikings +2 at Dallas Cowboys. Curiouser and curiouser – since when is an 8-1 team getting points at home to an underwhelming team like the 2022 Dallas Cowboys. Sure, the Cowboys are 6-3 SU/ATS, but that mark hides the 2-2 SU/ATS in away games. And the only two games in which the Vikings have been underdogs this season were against the Eagles and the Buffalo Bills, two top-five teams in the NFL. Are the oddsmakers depending on the “emotional letdown” after the OT win in Buffalo? Bettors who want to make profits sure won’t – these Vikings are for real.
• Cleveland Browns +7½ vs Buffalo Bills in Detroit. In NFLbets’ view, the top team that should be getting the disrespect from the sportsbooks is Buffalo. The Bills have now lost two straight SU and three straight ATS in sinking to third place in the AFC East – and recall that five weeks ago, some were ready to start printing Bills Super Bowl tickets after a 4-point win at Kansas City. And sure, Bills WRs could turn this game into a track neet but just as easily could the Browns pass rush torment the often bamboozled-looking Josh Allen with the Cleveland backfield pounds out the yardage: The Browns are no. 6 in yards per carry and no. 2 in rushing TDs. We’re expecting few enough points that Cleveland can keep it to within 7.
• New England Patriots -3½ vs New York Jets. Could this be thelast chance to bet on the Patriots As We Know Them? Quite possibly; we’re risking it.
• Washington Commanders -3 at Houston Texans. Admittedly, this is the least suspicious of all suspicious lines. Despite the opposition Texans at 1-7-1 SU (but 4-4-1 ATS!) Texans, because NFLbets can easily envision looking back on the 2-14-1 season and lamenting betting the Commanders in week 11. But we can’t ignore this 3-1 SU/3-0-1 ATS run that Washington’s on since reinstalling Taylor Heinicke and think they resemble a playoff team – or at least one that can beat the NFL’s dregs by more than a field goal…

Wish us luck, ‘cause NFL bets could use it.

– written by Os Davis