Week 11 point spread, lines, picks -- New York Jets +3 at New England Patriots

There’s a “changing of the guard” mentality all over the NFL this season, with several notable old stalwarts – like Green Bay, Pittsburgh, Tom Brady’s team, and both Super Bowl teams from last year – on the downturn, and ready to replace are upstarts like Miami, Minnesota and … the New York Jets?

Truth be told, on the face of it, NFLbets may sooner rather than later look back on

New York Jets +3 at New England Patriots, over/under 48 points

as an archaeological artifact, as the final time the Bill Belichick-led Patriots were to be taken seriously as a viable bet when favored against a playoff-bound (or at least playoff-bubble) team. Everyday fans – and possibly the oddsmakers – habitually give Belichick too much credit in potentially getting his Pats over the hump with some glaring shortcomings.

The basic numbers may suggest that Belichick is getting the maximum out of his guys, with the results for bettors better than average, but barely. Consider that, in the post-Brady Era, the Patriots:

Meanwhile, the stat that Patriots backers are touted is the obvious: In all regular-season games following a bye week, Belichick’s New England teams are 15-6 SU/11-9-1 ATS since 2000. Further obfuscating the confidence in this assertion is the sick stat that, following the bye week and favored by 3½ points or less, these Patriots are 1-3-1 ATS. Make it easy, why don’tcha…?

Backing the Patriots here is the equivalent of riding the hot hand, though the post-Brady Pats aren’t exactly hot per se, but are dependable against marginal teams. In a coaching matchup or against a young QB, bettors may still feel confident in backing the Pats for the nonce.

This, despite the promising-looking Jets – but New York may have a touch of the Icarus about them at the moment. They’re on a 4-1 SU/ATS run, culminating in the week 10 win against Buffalo – but if you’re looking to fade the trends, the team looking to snap the run might well be the only team who’s beaten them SU/ATS since week 3.

What’s more, the Jets run defense has been steadily declining since 1 while Patriots Rhamondre Stevenson – who was good for 143 total yards in the week 8 game at New York – is on the ascension. The Jets have been top-notch against the pass, top-10 in most statistical categories and no. 2-ranked in interceptions. Here’s to thinking the Mac Jones sees a season low in pass attempts far from the 35 he threw against the Green Gang in the last outing.

This pick may be a shout against the winds of change, but this is definitely a prove-us-wrong scenario in week 11. We’re advising bettors take the New England Patriots +3 vs the Jets.

– written by Os Davis

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