Betting point spreads, over/unders on Thanksgiving III: Patriots at Vikings

When can you bet without regret on Mac Jones in 2022? Only when all other trending advantages are on your side. And hoo boy, is that the case with the primetime Thanksgiving Day game, with a line of

New England Patriots +2½ at Minnesota Vikings, over/under 42 points

After the Cowboys thoroughly spanked the Vikings (along with anyone deluded enough to believe in this team as a viable Super Bowl contender) on Sunday, NFL bettors were reminded of certain realities, i.e. the Vikes are running with a first-year head coach, their offensive line rather falls apart when LT Christian Darrisaw goes out and, well, Kirk Cousins is your quarterback.

And with Cousins come stats like a 10-18 SU/11-17 ATS record as a starter in night games – not to mention this year’s ATS record of 4-5-1.

Starting Cousins while running on smoke and mirrors is obviously not sustainable: The Vikings are 3-0 SU but 1-2 ATS against first-year head coaches’ teams this season; they’re also 5-0 SU against teams currently with a losing record but 2-3 ATS in those games.

So in come the New England Patriots, with head coach Bill Belichick well known for dominating in short weeks: Since 2000, his Pats are 14-4 SU/10-6-2 ATS on Thursdays.

More immediately, New England brings an ever scarier pass rush defense to bear against Cousins & Co. The Patriots D leads the league in QB pressures and in five of the past six have allowed 17 or fewer points. Essentially, the Pats will show Minnesota the same look the Cowboys gave ’em in week 11 and research shows that didn’t turn out so well for the Vikings…

As for Justin Jefferson, well, we all know what they say about Belichick removing that chief weaponry. Last Sunday, the Cowboys double-teamed Jefferson while blitzing repeatedly, and the stud WR was left to season lows in targets and catches. With no Darrisaw shoring up the left side, this could be quite the long day for Vikings backers. So take the Patriots +2½ and take the over on an O/U of 42 points.

– written by Os Davis

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